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LP08

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Everything posted by LP08

  1. LP08
    And looking at soundings, it’s mostly sleet north of EZF.
  2. LP08
    Looks drier and more east than 12z.
  3. LP08
    This is where I’m at...
  4. LP08
    I'm not smart enough to give you good answer one way or another. We have 3 events (Sat, Tues, and Thursday). Better approach is to take one by one and not worry/think to much about any until the one before it is resolved. Trend all year as been to de-amp waves and warm the boundary layer so until that changes at gametime, that's where my thinking is for the current pattern for the next 7-10 days.
  5. LP08
    Thursdays storm looks colder....that's the one!
  6. LP08
    Still a decent ice storm for the favored spots, but near the corridor, not so much.
  7. LP08
    GFS looks less icy and warmer for Tuesday... Monday storm offshore did seem stronger.
  8. LP08
    GFS looks like a slight increase in precip through 36 hrs. Still pretty light and not much change from 6z. Should be pretty slick still!
  9. LP08
  10. LP08
    Where this magical suppressive cold? It’s still above freezing here. Lol
  11. LP08
    I don't think i agree with the Euro part. Euro was almost entirely the 2nd wave until 1-2 days before the event. You may have gotten the same amount of snow from the 2 systems but not because the euro was right. It completely missed Wave 1 and had a much stronger wave 2 until 24-36 hours. Take a look at the qpf trends. MD areas gained QPF because of wave 1(like the other models had it) but everywhere south continually cut back.
  12. LP08
    A question for the smarter people in the room. During this upcoming "cold" outbreak, why isn't there a response to 850s? Looping Hour 60 through 132 on the GFS, 850's are never below zero for a lot on the forum. We have had storms this year come at us from the SW this year where 850's have been fine but the surface is terrible. Why the switch now when there is actual surface cold? Forgive me if this is a dumb question.
  13. LP08
    These are the temps on approach. They improve during the storm but still are a few degrees warmer than previous runs. I'm a little gun shy about the extended depth of cold due to our previous storms.
  14. LP08
    They improve some once precip starts but every run temps creep up a little. Still a significant storm.
  15. LP08
    Frustating. Look at the surface ( I know i know extended range) 31 in DC with precip approaching.
  16. LP08
    It gets snow to here. Maybe .3 to .4 on the precip maps.
  17. LP08
    Totally agree, but again looking at the surface temps for us near the cities, each run is bumping a degree or two. Now its 29 or 30 with precip in the area. We've moved away from the mid to upper 20's look (at least on the Nam). Slow trend all season has been to warm the surface and decrease the precip. That's all I'm saying.
  18. LP08
    Nam seems very uneventful for the Saturday wave now. Very little precip north of EZF.
  19. LP08
    Was just talking to a buddy about this. When does Saturday go from 28 and sleet and Ice to 31-32 non event for us close into DC metro?
  20. LP08
    Flakes in N Arlington!
  21. LP08
    Of all the things, moderate rain wasn’t on my list of worries for this stretch of weather.
  22. LP08
    Still flakes in N Arlington and 33.
  23. LP08
    It’s certainly white up here. Successfully dusted.
  24. LP08
    Same here probably pretty close to you. Was 42/31 and 34/33.
  25. LP08
    Nam is a snowstorm i81 and west for sat/sun.
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