Seems like a precip issue to me than a "warmer" issue. Its not nearly as wet through 15z as the 12k. 700 winds looked to have backed off quite a bit as well compared to 6z. has about half the precip as the 3k has during the time when the column is supportive.
It's all about that initial slug of WAA. That's the snow. HRRRRRRRR directs it right into the metros, some take it north, some take it south. Our accumulating snow chances are between 4am-10am.
Now you're trying too hard. Please link me to a LWX discussion where they EVER weigh those two. As someone said, the UKIE is great at nailing troughs in Islamabad but synoptically, its never trusted.
Interesting is a lot nicer word than I would have used! Luckily it’s the only model really focusing that southern max of the initial push. I have a feeling that it will settle along a line from Winchester to northern Maryland, but without that dramatic drop in between.
Definitely. That panel is wetter than 6z. I am resigned to the fact that we will mix (and probably mix earlier than models suggest) but everything on the EPS looked a hair colder.