weatherwiz

Sweet!! Hoping I see something similar

That was a thought I had.

What are these “streaks” that sometimes develop under the anvil? I’ve always wondered that. Anyways this has some supercell looks to it!

There might be a shelf in the horizon

I hear thunder!!!

I think I’m going to get hit good here!!!

Enough juice left...watch that stuff in N CT heading SE

2000 J MLCAPE and 25-30 knots effective shear across S CT. These storms should explode. Noting a solid tilt with the updrafts too. Damaging winds and hail > 1.50” will be possible I think

I think I did me real well by going to North Branford

Holy shit...I don’t care if that’s hail fused together...that’s huge

Danbury cell from North Branford

I think so...looking across N NJ into SE NY there is activity down there. Like you said...notable CU to my west

Debating on sticking around Branford...I think we should see development across southern CT within the next 30-60 minutes

actually the rotation isn't bad looking...though I think it's a bit elevated

not entirely...I'd watch southern CT and eastern CT through the afternoon.

there is some

I talked about today in the opening paragraph

If everything can align Wednesday could be a decent severe weather day. the lapse rates suck but dews well into the 70's could compensate a bit

oops...I had the wrong hour up on the screen. What I meant to say for Tuesday was a chance for t'storms overnight as humidity begins to increase again and the llv jet strengthens.

I'm sure this is somewhere within the August 2019 discussion thread but I don't feel like reading through all of the temp and dewpoint crap and about how people who live in forests try to use their weather to quantify a regime and how people on tarmacs try to quantify their weather as a regime so here it goes... The next few days offers up several opportunities for convection and like we saw this weekend the meso-models (or CAMS) are going to have a very difficult time grasping the evolution of convection. Today: Moderate (to even borderline extreme) instability in place thanks to very high dewpoints, rather warm sfc temps, and modest mid-level lapse rates. Shear isn't overly strong (but a modest MLJ of 40-50 knots) punching into the region will help create bulk shear values supportive for organized convection. The verdict: Scattered severe t'storms today which will produce localized areas of wind damage. Transient supercells may also produce some large hail with low risk for a tornado up in ME. Tuesday: Weak shortwave approaching, high humidity, and low CIN will result in scattered t'storms developing during the afternoon with isolated svr potential Wednesday: Wednesday is a bit more intriguing with strong front/shortwave energy approaching, and decent wind shear/instability. Could see scattered severe weather with all severe hazards possible.

Exactly.

3-6 lolis to 10

Pretty decent signal for some EML advection next week. Also talking about a 40-50 kt MLJ traversing the region. Let's see if we can muster something up

It's sounding game time!!!!! (Note: The game will take a break on the weekends unless I feel to do so otherwise) Here is a sounding from around the Kansas City area for 0z Friday evening. A very nice loaded gun sounding (extreme CAPE) characterized by MLCAPE > 5,000 J/KG and mlvl lapse rates of 8.5 C/KM! In addition to the extreme instability we also see strong wind shear present with both speed and directional shear noted. This is leading to a large and curved hodograph. I like this sounding b/c it indicatives an extreme thermodynamic environment coupled with very strong wind shear. Synoptically, there will be shortwave energy moving through along with a very well defined (well multiple) surface boundaries. This will be a focal point for extreme convection later today...likely explosive development with activity quickly converging into an MCS. Training t'storms are likely as well. Damaging winds and very large hail likely along with a few tornadoes with discrete cells. Significant flash flooding possible too.