weatherwiz

Since I don't have GR here how high up were the highest dbz's? With such a moist airmass just looking at sfc reflectivity is going to make things worse than they are. sfc reflectivities will be quite high just b/c of the torrential downpours.

the more the better.

Look at the higher theta-e values kicking in. I wonder if we can get dews to pool to about 75-77 in some spots?

NAM Nest and 3km NAM want to keep llvl flow backed but I think the flow is a little too weak to worry about any TOR potential.

Nevermind working now

Would anyone mind posting the observed 12z soundings for Albany and OKX? Not loading on my phone for some reason. Although I’ll be headed to work soon. I might even be able to chase today depending on how long this meeting goes and I get my forecasts done!!!

Latest hi-res is really interesting

Quite the difference between the NAM and NAM Nest. The later has decent (for our standards) mid-level lapse rates but gets much more heating and as a result has very steep low-level lapse rates along with backed llvl flow. Moderate cape too and great shear. Would suggest a decent wind damage event

Pretty impressed by the 12z guidance on the look of the squall line. i still think it ends up fizzling as it propagates down into SNE but the slight risk area looks good for a few microbursts. Despite the decent CAPE/low-level moisture down this way I think the weakening upper-level dynamics hurt...also...I wonder if a more westerly sfc wind perhaps knocks the potential down a bit down this way? But we'll see what happens and whether the mid/upper level dynamics lacking become a player. This is the exact topic I am doing for senior research and I gotta get this going ASAP.

NNE definitely has a shot at something more interesting than down this way. NNE also closer to the better jet dynamics at 500. Seems like we sort of crap out the dynamics down this way as the afternoon progresses. Strongest height falls also look to occur across NNE. Maybe SE NH or SW ME could be in a good spot.

it's a phrase. there'll be pockets of wind damage...maybe even an isolated area of widespread damage if there happens to be a microburst. Most of the downed trees will probably be rotted trees that Bambi pissed on

yeah I think torrential downpours is greater threat than severe...there will be some wind damage and such but nothing atypical than what we usually get from these setups

You mean Tuesday? Tuesday looks decent. I think we could see potential for a few embedded wet microbursts but I'm wondering if flash flooding will be the biggest concern...even with relatively dry grounds. PWATS surge to >2.5'' ahead of the front and the front becomes aligned parallel to the upper-level flow so that will really slow things down. Despite the poor lapse rates high dewpoints should help with decent updrafts and any pockets of stronger heating and steeper low-level lapse rates will help with the localized potential for strong-to-damaging wind gusts.

Yeah it's been pretty dead outside of like one or two other decent events but they were mostly north of here. I didn't even get the chase (so far) to do any chasing around. When my friend was down late May/early June there was nothing at all in the Northeast and the couple days there have been stuff I was working. But we'll see what happens next spring. If this job becomes full time I'll get a week of paid vacation and I won't have school to deal with anymore either.

it sucks I haven’t had the time to really post the past few years but next year that should be different

Not really. Watched it for a few days.

Tuesday looks like a pretty solid wet microburst setup. Nothing widespread but a few wet microbursts certainly possible...especially where llvl lapse rates are most steep. Front looks almost parallel to the upper flow too. With high PWATS flash flooding possible too

Twitter can be a big riot. I get a kick out of the "models could still trend west" or "I think models will trend west" posts...even know there is no sound meteorological reasoning for why. Its more wishcasting than anything. I mean with Chris...we only have a stalled boundary off the coast and then another frontal boundary pushing off the cast but let's disregard that and still think Chris could have came west.

I’ve been getting a huge laugh at reading tweets about how people in New England needed to “watch” Chris

NAM Nest a bit impressive tomorrow

Past several runs of the HRRR have been pretty aggressive with the strengthening of a decent looking squall line across the southern part of CT into RI and SE MA

maybe I'll see a TOR on my drive to Branford in the morning

Sure does. Also, pretty steep lapse rate as well between the surface and like 960mb (ish). Should really help with parcel acceleration in the lowest levels. LCL and LFC aren't too far apart either

What station is that? That's actually not bad CAPE values given the shear.