weatherwiz

idk... I think a strong argument can be made for that. Crazy anomalous events are becoming more frequent...at least the patterns which yield those potential outcomes are.

These anomalous events are happening so much more frequently that eventually they won't be so anomalous. nahhh...I doubt this pattern remains through the winter. Using a combination of the little I know about long-range and form what I read from the experts on twitter it seems like this is strongly correlated to some crazy +MT and -AAM (maybe its -MT)...eventually though I guess for momentum to be restored or for equilibrium something has to give and things will relax...or even reverse. Part of me wonders if it has to do with the seasonal transition as well and due to factors like MT, AAM, etc the transition period is leading to some anomalous times but as that transition becomes more "seasonal" it will relax

Even wind chill watches/warnings in MT, WY, and CO...this is freaking nuts. Wind chills as low as -30. WTF is going on

Yeah...I don't necessarily think the winds happen within the line or heavier pockets of rain themselves...but moreso just out ahead of them (guess that could be more synoptic related than convective?) I agree...50-60 max sounds quite reasonable. Too bad we are just off the Lakes. Kevin would be going wild.

I agree...this isn't really a big wind event for the Cape. Unlike the last system which saw pressure gradient enhancement followed by CAA these winds will have to be more convectively-driven...so unless we see a pretty impressive squall line bigger winds will be more isolated in nature. Even though there might be a weakened inversion in this situation, extremely poor moist-adiabatic lapse rates are going to hinder momentum transport.

I disagree. The best winds in this case will have to be driven from convective processes...so any more significant or impressive gusts are going to be on the more isolated side...unless of course we deal with a pretty decent low topped line blow through. We won't see much pressure-gradient winds (well anything impressive anyways) this go-around. I would like to see steeper llvl lapse rates get involved to help with momentum transfer which would then result in bigger wind potential.

Yeah this could be pretty significant right off the lakes. I was shocked to see soundings so impressive right now. Could see tropical storm force sustained and hurricane force gusts. good point about the lake flooding potential

I don’t

Damage for all

A vigorous trough is set to dig into the country's mid-section midweek, eject into the Ohio Valley and begin lifting as it approaches New England. Out ahead of it, an anomalously strong southerly flow will transport anomalous PWAT values into the region, along with llvl moisture and warmth. These two factors will help to contribute to at least some modest elevated instability along with the potential for weak sfc instability. Both the GFS/euro indicate a vigorous 500mb jet streak pushing through New England (80-100+ knots) will help to yield extreme upward vertical motion and forcing. The combination of strong dynamics, strong forcing, and (to some degree) instability will result in the potential for a low-topped squall line to organize and at least push into western sections. The line itself likely won't be associated with strong winds, but just out ahead of this line will be the potential for strong-to-damaging wind gusts..as is typically the case in these type of situations. There are some wildcards as to the potential extent of this activity, however, with sfc dewpoints into the 60's this may result in very weak capping aloft, so there is potential for very strong wind gusts not only from convection, but momentum transport. If the trough was not opening up and lifting to the northeast this would allow for a much stronger surge of CAA in the mid-level. This would be accompanied by steeper mid-level lapse rates and perhaps a much greater threat for widespread severe weather. As t stands now, torrential rainfall and strong/gusty winds look probable; including the risk for some embedded severe t'storms (though we'll have to see if we have enough for lightning generation)

I've been meaning to start a thread for that low topped convection but I've been quite busy.

I was shocked to see HWW's already up off the lakes in NY, but I just looked at some of the bufkit soundings for ROC, BUF, and SYR and HOLY CRAP. Could see gusts 60-80 mph per bufkit soundings lol...sustained 25-40

I haven't had a 40 since December 12. Gave them up when I finished school lol. Usually when winter sucks for a while I start up the May 1 thread then winter hits with a vengeance. ughhh

Thank you! Let's get some post-Halloween damage

Euro indicates potential for some pretty strong wind gusts Friday. Speaking of winds...the situation in CA is going to get worse before it gets better. Insane Santa Ana winds looking likely tomorrow night and Wednesday. Kincade wildfire is only 10% contained too. Hopefully some progress will be made today as the winds subside a bit.

Well at some point things will happen...marriage or kids and once I go down that route it’s not just about what I want to do anymore. So I want to do all this stuff before then.

I would do that but I don’t think my friend wants to fly lol. Think he’s scared of flying...otherwise I’d totally do that My friends food expense will be massive...mine will be like next to minimal. I have hardly appetite at all the past almost year. I could get buy with a McDonald’s burger for lunch and dinner every night if needed. I just want to do this and need to do this now. I’m going to be 31...not many chances left

My friend and I are seriously considering doing storm chasing out west this spring!!! Biggest hurdle always is about how much money to have? (Gas, tolls, motels, food, any car maintenance...certainly would at least need one oil change perhaps).

Holy Alabama

Not a bad looking couplet there...also had a pretty decent increase in lightning as it tightened.

The state of AAM (at times) throughout the course of the winter may result in a hemispheric configuration which is opposite of what you would expect given the ENSO signal. Actually if we do want to talk ENSO...the weak EL Nino signal may be just enough to result in an expanded Hadley Cell which would not be good for CA.

These troughs have to be plummeting AAM...no wonder the atmosphere is in a Nina state. Be interesting to see how much longer this persists. This is also why I don't believe ENSO is going to be a strong contributor to the global pattern this winter....going to be too weak and it looks like there will be other factors which hold more weight...for example, AAM.

This isn't Euro so hope it's ok.

Am I allowed to post graphics from Ryan Mau'es site (using the pay version)? Anyways...NWS blend of models has high temperatures 30 to 40°F....30 to 40°F below-average.