weatherwiz

I've had to leave alot of those groups...nothing but garbage. these people hype everything up and then get all upset and blame the models...but they're the clowns who screwed up. Oh hey the total snowfall accumulations through 384-hours show 47.5'' from location A to location B the next 15 days is going to be epic

This is actually something I think about alot. Was it the case of the models being bad or is it how information is being portrayed/relayed? I know I've said this a million times but I think it's important enough to do so. This is something you see all over social media and I saw it at school but too many folks just run to model snowfall maps, SLP maps, QPF maps and use those as a basis for a forecast or as a means to communicate weather instead of analyzing the bigger picture. (This isn't pertaining to anyone here on the board...this is geared to social media/what I've seen from those around me). But what happens is these situations don't pan out and the models get the blame and nobody wants to take responsibility for their wrong doing. I know you're part of many groups on facebook and active on twitter so you'll know what I'm talking about but so many people try to use a model snowfall map for however many days down the road as a basis to indicate there is potential for a storm or a big storm...now I guess in a way you can do that as it means the model is "showing a storm". But just b/c a model shows a storm doesn't automatically mean there is potential. The bigger picture needs to be analyzed. If the model is showing a storm but the pattern doesn't seem to support it or it doesn't make sense...chances are it's not going to happen. You can't assess this just by looking at a QPF map or snowfall output map. Before these model snow maps became a thing actual forecasting and diagnostics had to be a thing. How many of these D7-10 day storms would get the attention they did without them? Probably very few of them. I get it's fun within the weather community and it's all good fun to post them here (b/c everyone knows how to handle them) but when they get tossed around social media it becomes a big problem and it generates hype. This is leading to the public to lose confidence in meteorologists...I hear this stuff all the time from people. IMO though winter weather forecasting has become terrible and the biggest shame is the ones out there who do a phenomenal job with it (forecasting, communicating, etc) are being overshadowed. People look at snow maps and it's off to the races. GFS snow map shows 15-25'' over a large area (even though when looking at the setup it's extremely unlikely) and it's "sound the alarms...historic storm coming". Storm happens...drops 8-12'' (still significant) and it gets labeled bust b/c a freaking map output showed 2-3x that. I don't understand the love for the model snow maps...whether it's just pure laziness, the fact they can show a ton of snow which people love...idk. It's not like they even incorporate the most important ingredients to determining snowfall. Oh yeah let's take model QPF (which models suck at to begin with) and multiply that by a fixed constant ratio (which ratios throughout the storm are not fixed or constant) and viola that's how much snow is going to happen...and then...and then you have the maps WHICH INCORPORATE SLEET....WHO THE HELL CAME UP WITH THAT IDEA???? Take that code and slap it right across the face of the individual who did that. Obviously models aren't perfect and they are subject to wavering (even inside a certain amount of time) but if there was more focus in analyzing the synoptics and features aloft with enough skill and knowledge very solid forecasts can be made...this is how humans beat computers in terms of forecasting and why computers will never take over. Forecasting is much more than just rip and reading model output and making a forecast.

All these failed events are maddening. Thankfully convective season is approaching and we won't have to do with fail as much

Nice to see CAPE in the greens starting to pop up!!! Even some over us

Looking at latest global SSTA data and quite a few things pop to mind: 1) Are we headed back to a -PDO regime already? If so, the latest positive phase may be one of the shortest since the late 1950's. 1a) Still with the PDO, the configuration of the Pacific combined with the bursts of MJO activity this winter, and QBO makes you wonder if we will see a strong La Nina develop moving through the next 12-18 months. 1b) Tying into ENSO and La Nina potential, but will have to watch the WHWP over the course of the summer and how it migrates across the Pacific relative to climo...if migration is not as far east as it should be this could vastly increase the likelihood of La Nina and also influence tropical forcing. 2) AMO still positive...I remember back like 10 years ago my guess was we would see the AMO perhaps start the descent towards negative territory around the start of this decade...but historically we may still have another 15+ years of +AMO to deal with (actually look like the positive phase dominates for as much as 40 years with negative phase closer to 30) 3) I wonder how quickly SST's recover/warm in the Gulf of Mexico but they're relatively cool now (thanks to all those strong fronts). Not really connecting this for tropical season, but severe season. There is research which shows some correlation to SSTA's in the GoM and spring severe...and it makes sense that there would be. for example, in the historic season of 2011 SSTA's in the GoM were quite positive due to the lack of FROPA's into the GoM

No need to worry...we'll be budding and sprouting like a chia pet over the next few weeks. Greenery is coming

There are only two "s" words which should be mentioned moving forward...sun and severe

GFS even getting some sfc CAPE close by towards the end of the run

I don't get all this talk of cold and snow when we're looking at one of the warmest Morch's in recent times.

I feel so bad for you. Your winter lasted like 2 days and the Mets season will be about 1-2 days. They'll be a GB after losing opening day and it will just be downhill from there. But it's time to embrace spring man...love it, enjoy it. Lotion up the Monday and just lay outside and enjoy as your thermometer tickles 70

That was a super cute story..even shed a tear.

This is actually a good example where EPS (outside of looking at individual members) could be rather mis-leading. The window is so small that when looking at EPS for that period that signal is extremely muted but when you look at the individual members Tip posted you can actually see the signal much more clearly. That may be our final shot at anything...I think after that cold shot is when we really warm up.

That's exactly what it's going to take..something extremely well and perfectly timed and obviously there is really no way to know that in advance...I suppose there could be some signals in the medium/long range (very similar to what Tip was pointing out. but if it were to happen...I think it's something that gets picked up on 2-3 days out...not something we're tracking 7-10 days out.

I can't disagree that a pattern relaxation may qualify (though I am arguing that in this instance) as historically sometimes that all you need...is a relaxation in the pattern. IMO, there is just so much going against us that even in a relaxation it isn't enough to yield significant potential.

I totally agree that there certainly is still some decent cold bottled up there in southeast Canada with some cold 850's, however, it's been that way through much of the winter. I'm not really using persistence at all with my thoughts or forecast...(well perhaps that's a lie) but in order for us I think to utilize that we're going to need to see some drastic pattern change...something much more than just a "relaxation" in the flow. Also, that cold can easily be eroded in the coming weeks. I guess you can argue that by saying this warm look can easily erode too but IMO everything points/signals towards the warmth dominating and by everything I mean global teleconnections. I know they begin to lose their correlation as we move into spring, but at least through the end of model guidance some of those signals remain strong and continue to drive the hemispheric configuration.

I think that possibility will arise after mid-month. After the warm-up to begin next week we cool down a bit but the pattern that develops after that could be quite warm. Maybe even factor some air mass trajectory from the southwest.

I still think March is going to be quite warm. Constant theme seems to be for significant ridging to develop across the central Pacific (would love to be able to see AAM/EAMT plots) with wave breaking across the eastern Pacific resulting in the troughs which dig into the west. Unfortunately, with the southeast ridge looking to be quite strong these troughs will quickly become muted as they progress east or they begin to de-amplify and lift to our northwest. I suspect we'll see some days where we get 75-80 in the near future. Time to get all lotioned up and stand outside like a scarecrow. Best way to get an even tan

Didn't they have a crazy macroburst a few years back?

Nothing better than starting the week off with some excellent COC It's a shame the winter had to blow chunks...especially after how December started but it's onto spring/summer. Playoff hockey/basketball and baseball!!!!

COC for all on Monday

legalize marijuana and sports betting and this state will bring in some money (which still probably wouldn't be allocated properly)

I actually have a quite a bit of interest in tracking them too. I know it's not very exciting but forecasting temperatures in the spring (especially around here) requires a bit of skill at times and it's not very easy. I think one of the most interesting drivers is soil moisture/leafing out and the influences they can have.

Monday could be a legit top 10 day. Keep flow more WSW and we could see mid-to-upper 60's.

we should all pool money and rent a hotel at the H5 inn

I think I looked into this before but there seems to be a correlation to Bruins Stanley Cup appearances and above-average severe season in the Northeast