weatherwiz

The GFS has been pretty meh in the medium-to-long range. It's become pretty obvious the GFS would cave into the Euro and with each successive run the GFS has been doing so. Every year when we get to this point in the fall the GFS becomes way too quick with these major pattern changes and significant (long lasting) cold shots. Sure they have happened before and eventually they will, but there just doesn't seem to be significant support across all suites for this.

CA is just a disaster. Couldn't pay me enough to live there.

I get super depressed scrolling through the instability maps through the duration of the run...this is sad. This isn't good...like I want spring and summer now. It's only October and way too early to start the May 1st countdown. This is going to be tough

This is just my own opinion, but I don't think there is really any merit to seasonal snowfall forecasting (and the same goes with tornadoes)...now you can certainly do something along the lines of a probabilistic standpoint indicating likelihood of above-average, around average, and below-average...but doing so by a range of totals...I don't think there is any skill or merit to it. There are way too many factors involved which you simply can't forecast (outside of short-term) and can't correlate to a specific pattern...one of them being how much snow a system can potentially produce.

The pictures out of the Geyserville, CA area are scary. I can't even imagine the fear those people are going through.

I've always taken extreme caution with correlations relating to precipitation (in this case snowfall and potential snowfall totals). Sure you can derive a general likelihood of what to expect based on pattern recognition, but at the end of the day (I think anyways) something like snowfall is tied more into how all pieces involved interact. We've had some damn good patterns fail to produce and we've had horrific patterns produce. I think at the end of the day it's embedded disturbances within the overall pattern which dictate the end result moreso than the overall pattern configuration.

Ryan Maue's page has that as well. His page also has Euro data at 1-HR intervals...does WxBell?

I hope that southeast ridge isn't a major factor this winter...or at least it positions itself farther east. Could be a long fall too in terms of fire danger in the west.

ahhh that explains a lot. I think I may go ahead and explore weather.us. Ryan Maue's site is alright (was great when it first happened) but there really have not been any additions or improvements (from what I've seen anyways). I should just use wxbell though...have a subscription from school.

I must be confusing weathermodels.com and weather.us I have the $10/month subscription for weathermodels.com. Is weather.us better?

For $10/month subscription you really can't go wrong. I wish it was a bit better to navigate as well and the maps were a bit better and some more products but it's certainly worth the buy I think.

hmmm think I need to start up another low topped convective thread for end of next week

Euro could be a pretty decent severe wx outbreak next week too from southern OH Valley to Gulf Coast. ughhhh why can't we ever get in on these

wait...I think I got it now. Referencing the affair between Seguin and Horton's wife?

Was it? I thought that was Seguin...he sent some tweet out thanking people for reaching out to him. Maybe both their homes were destroyed.

Tyler Seguin's house he had just sold or was in the process of selling was destroyed during the tornado Sunday

I totally see the point about the cooler air quickly undercutting activity tomorrow, but there is a window...albeit brief where there is an impressive overlap of parameters. Even looks like some 350K theta-e air poking into the area. Lapse rates may not be much but that could yield some pretty decent MLCAPE values

I think tornado potential is being downplayed a bit in south-central TX tomorrow...especially just N and W of Austin.

Typically hot tubs don't lead to sinking motion

Let's expand that and look at that subsidence this afternoon. Sinking motion to rising motion like BOOM

Fun at Colorado springs tonight!!!

WOWZERS

^^^^^ Pretty much this. The past few years have been annoying with brutal cold into May. I'd rather just deal with it now and get it over with.

If things can work in our favor I could see a shot at accumulating snow in early November. I actually wouldn't mind a front loaded winter and get all our snow through January and then warm up in February and get an early spring

Great point...did not consider that. Woah...the NAM is hinting at several inches of snow for parts of the TX Panhandle tomorrow night.