weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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I would watch this pocket extremely closely. It's just ahead of the line with TOR warnings in DE. You get 2-6km lapse rates around 8 to overlap when that LLJ cranks and we're getting 50-70 mph gusts
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Bufkit is legit the best...I don't see how anyone can really forecast without it. It's great too b/c you can manipulate mixing depth. For the most part I find bufkit extremely accurate with winds...though sometimes I think the GFS can tend to be a bit overdone b/c it always seems to go mix happy but OTOH, the NAM I think tends to under-do mixing lol.
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Wow...don't think I've ever seen "high" for a tornado watch here...although maybe 5/15/18 had it
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And there's the tornado watch
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certainly some weak mesos. We probably have another couple hours I'd say before things get really interesting with them.
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The HRRR continues to advertise widespread 50-60 knots of wind traversing the state (CT) later today. There seems to be quite a bit of other model support as well. Not only is there model support but soundings and the environment seem to support this as well. I would expect there is going to be widespread tree damage/power outages across the state later. Some will be without power for several days
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Tornado Watch coming
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looking pretty impressive with nearly 200 J of 3km CAPE being modeled for later
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Thankfully it's getting closer to landfall so not sure how much room there is for strengthening, however, I guess you couldn't rule out some additional strengthening as it interacts with that ULJ.
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NHC did a special advisory. Up to 85 mph
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If that is legit we are in for some big trouble
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ummm hello
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Should this verify there is going to be some widespread damage with a few embedded tornadoes
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extrapolated SLP of 985mb found
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Sunday, August 2, 2020 Convective/Severe Potential
weatherwiz replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
First two of 2020 for CT! Let's add several more tomorrow -
There goes our jet streak. Should continue to strengthen
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Wow hurricane winds a bit far into the NE part
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Yeah for sure...probably could extend that area to Long Island and southern CT...maybe even a bit farther inland into CT. If we do see gusts 60-70 mph...even if that magnitude only lasts a couple hours...that's going to do significant damage given the fully leaved trees. I mean look at what 50-60 mph winds do during thunderstorms here and those winds maybe last for what...a few minutes? I guess thankfully the ground is dry
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21z RPM actually hints at hurricane-force winds possible along the NJ coast. Actually is a bit impressive with winds well inland across CT. But why does the scale max out at 50 knots?
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well recon's first pass was impressive...hurricane force winds
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yes but we're talking about with tropical...it's exceedingly rare to get a ENH with a tropical system b/c the main threat is tornadoes and you would need a 10% TOR contour to get ENH and that doesn't happen very often
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I can only recall a couple times over the past several years where it's happened. I think it actually may have occurred last season? Maybe it was with Michael
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Let's 10% TOR this tomorrow. Hey Alex, I'll take ENH for $1000
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18z NAM BDL at 8:00 AM. CAPE continue to looking very impressive. Def have to wonder if we see an upgrade to an enhanced risk...maybe even see wind probs of 30% if signal for convection persists 3:00 PM lapse rates (3:00 PM)
