weatherwiz

Really can't ask for any look better than that at this range

The prospects are definitely there for something...whether "storm" is the proper word. There's going to be a front moving through with some major differences between what is in place tomorrow into Friday. Plenty of opportunity to keep colder air locked in the lower troposphere...pretty strong southwesterly MLJ should pump in plenty of moisture. I guess the biggest question will be is with [assuming likelihood of multiple waves] the strength of the waves and how they interact with whatever is in place aloft. Plenty of sfc convergence along the east coast though so something hopefully gives.

Dry? perhaps if you live in CA

There is some pretty hefty potential next week. I don't think we'll see one potent storm system...but there could be a firehose of moisture streaming up the east coast with a great deal of convergence and plenty of cold air nearby...some Pacific moisture gets injected, GoM, and even some Atlantic moisture. Big area of HP over the central U.S. with flow around providing llvl cold and huge HP in the Atlantic with the flow helping to aid in convergence. A front stalls over us and numerous waves of low pressure traverse the front. the north probably wins out but dang...this is juicy (the euro has similarities too)

I'm not sure if this is considered a bias or not, but in the medium range models have a tendency to overplay these types of scenarios...I'm going to start calling them Houdini b/c when one particular models is consistent with the evolution we all get sucked in and then all of a sudden...whammy it's gone.

Even a blind nut finds a squirrel

the models? well...kinda need them

The best is when everyone's favorite sites crash b/c of server overload from all the refresh requests

That's what it should have been viewed as all along. So many times people fall for these setups and except a monster snow event during a FROPA. It always was a cold front moving through...then the snow maps went crazy and people's pants dropped like potatoes

Not in the slightest lol

now I see it on pivotal...I swear it wasn't there 10-minutes ago lol

Found it... NOAA data center is having problems

Where at? I've checked Cod, tropicalridbits, and pivotal and there is no 12z runs and 6z barely finished. Trying to find out if there are any issues

Are computer models not running today?

This is a fantastic post...and yes, conditioning is a much more accurate word to use. when I was at school and winter threats came up the first thing some of the students would bring up in class, "what do the snow maps show?" Nobody cared about anything else. The models are proclaimed to be horrendous, brutal, garbage, blah, blah, blah, when the snow maps got it wrong in their backyard...the algorithms which go into these snow maps are pretty piss poor and too basic for something that is beyond basic and quite complicated.

Exactly. Too much emphasis is being placed on products which really shouldn't have that much weight placed on them. Each product is just a tool/piece of guidance. I can see how easy it is to just look at a map and run with it...but you're selling yourself short and if you're going to communicate that one map you're just going to pass along the wrong idea and all credibility becomes shot.

I disagree with this. Perhaps the stats will show this (although from bits and pieces that sometimes get tossed around on Twitter I think overall they haven't become worse). IMO, the biggest issue is laziness...there seems to be very little focus on meteorology anymore...it's all about rip and reading, focusing on a specific weather chart (whether it be a snow map, SLP, QPF) and running away with it. Social media I think is the biggest blame here...it's easy to post a model snowfall map showing 20-30'' of snow and then all of a sudden its retweeted thousands of times.

That's quite the cold front moving through Sunday. Looks like it acquires moisture from the Lakes..maybe snow squalls out ahead of it.

Next week has an intriguing look. Should get some pieces to work with at least...the airmass is going to be there. Hopefully something gives

Sunday looks intriguing. That's a pretty damn significant shortwave trough moving in...actually not so shortwave. But behind it the tropopause drops below 500mb. Could see some major upslope snows across NNE Sunday.

Virtually going to just be a race between how quickly CAA occurs in the lowest part of the atmosphere. A large portion of the region (outside of coastal areas) probably stand a good chance of seeing at least some flakes as this winds down. Still can't rule out a pretty decent band that extends from ME farther south into SNE. I think NW Hills of CT could see 2-3'' of snow

Yeah upslope could be pretty epic on some spots. What could be fun with this is watching the freezing level with dual-pol...it might completely crash going from NW to SE as that front moves through. Still gotta watch out for the NW Hills of CT...wouldn't give up on them too soon. Especially Norfolk lol

If the NAM is correct it is going to rip across northern New England. There would be a swath of some pretty excellent upward vertical motion and right where the column is supportive for snow too.

I was thinking more along the lines of the elevation component here. Either way...guess this just isn't trending in the right direction. Time to move ahead to next week...which might have some legs...maybe broken but with that pool of cold air around it's worth watching

The RPM has seemed to handle the winter storms they've had west the past few months pretty well. That doesn't look all far-fetched. I could see many ending as a burst of some snow coating things up. All that cold has to do is arrive a tick earlier.