weatherwiz

Euro still shoots some sfc-based CAPE into southern New England!!!

I wonder why when we seem to get inside a certain time frame we see these major flips...it certainly doesn't happen every time but it always seems like we get inside this magic number and poof...a complete 180 happens. Is it perhaps that everything is being sampled better? Perhaps its a parameterization function (outside of a certain time range doesn't the parameterization schemes change?)? Or maybe its a type of bias resulting from the ensemble mean smoothing key features just a bit too much?

climo

Going to have to start looking into how the pattern is going to be come spring. I sure hope it's one that favors active severe wx in the Plains...if I go to OK and nothing happens I'm going to be a bit upset.

wow that's pretty nice! One hobby I want to get into is photography...I can't wait until the summer when we get the early sunrises and I get to watch the sun rise going into work...epic. I'm going to get a dash-cam too (mainly for storm chasing) but use it on mornings the sun rise will be epic.

When it's consistent for 3-4+ days then it can be considered a potential true change

Well folks we are now under 100 days!!! 99 days to go!!!! 99 calendar days to go 99 calendar days to go you rip a date down then its one less day to go!!!!

At least signal for elevated convection is still there

We can always save this thread by turning it into a convective potential thread

Terrible for down this way...and into central New England. At least up north gets smoked.

northern New England

This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM

Don't models have a difficult time with handling confluence too? I remember some previous storms where confluence was a factor we saw last minute shifts south...and sometimes the south track resulted in suppression...thankfully this is a situation where we wouldn't have to worry about that so confluence may be our friend this time

Agreed. We go through the same nonsense every winter. Sometimes beginning as early as mid-November talk will begin about how the pattern looks "great" around Thanksgiving...then that gets delayed until early December...then it's around Christmas...then it's after Christmas...then it's after the New Year...then it's mid-month...then it's as we move into late month/February...then climo finally takes over and everyone claims win handing out high-fives for calling for the pattern change that took two months to occur. The problem is too many want to verify patterns based on whether they got to use a ruler in their backyard to measure snow...or one model run (ensemble or a weekly or whatever) throws up an H5 pattern that yields pants tents and all of a sudden "the pattern is going to change" b/c that run indicated it's going to happen and everyone starts running with it and once we hit that certain time stamp the signal vanishes as given the NH configuration it was unlikely to begin with. Since fall and through now we have seen highly erratic medium-to-long range pattern consistency within the models (likely as a result of a volatile Pacific with periods of increased MJO activity.

My guess it's b/c the euro has been a bit inconsistent with ULL track and how H5 and subsequent features evolve...the GFS has been a bit more consistent with the evolution/track of the ULL

Exactly!!! A similar pattern configuration, evolution, etc isn't going to produce similar results at the surface and it may not even produce something that is remotely close. There are numerous different solutions which can result from the "same setup"...so when a result happens it was just that one result out of the xxx amount. Too much emphasis is placed on analogs...ESPECIALLY seasonal forecasting

I think analogs are kinda stupid. I totally get the significance of them but I think they're misinterpreted or misunderstood.

The euro has tiny pockets of surface-based CAPE move across the region!!! not surprised given those lapse rates...wish Ryan's page had elevated CAPE but I would think we could be dealing with some weak elevated CAPE...could see elevated convection (especially in the "warm sector").

The progression between 108-120 is extremely odd regarding the ULL...very jumpy. So either a resolution type thing or just major uncertainty regarding where the closed circulation will actually be present...that blimp has major ramifications on the sfc product

Pretty much...this just adds another potential solution to the cards instead of zeroing in on any particular solution...which is still find given the range we're at. The majority of the diversion within the forecast models happen around Thursday or so and it's with how the trough/ridge evolve. Once this aspect is sampled and observed I think we should have a pretty clear idea of what to expect with the only uncertainties surrounding areas which are borderline.

The looks you get from people will be awesome

Could be a quite a bit of convection and convective elements involved...mlvl lapse rates approaching 8 with the mlvl low!!!!!

At least it warms into the mid 60's tomorrow!

That would certainly help with confidence here..obviously could certainly happen as there is still a large spread in wiggle room with this but seeing the GFS and Euro slowly with some ticks south is somewhat of a good sign. If the 12z euro comes in anything like the Ukie that would be a bit more concerning.