weatherwiz

This is something I'm worried about. I know back in 2009 I defaulted on a loan (which I was beyond stupid at the time) but that should be off my report by now and outside of that there are no bills (cell phone, credit card, car insurance/payments) that I have missed a payment on or been late on ever. But this is something I will certainly do. Thank you for the input!

That’s certainly a possibility..and would virtually mean that the meh mid-level lapse rates don’t matter in this case. I know at least the 12z NAM bufget showed 0-1km CAPE values almost at 100 J. LCL’s too are quite low and there is a great deal of CAPE and shear around the LCL height. Storm motion too almost looks like that alone can enhance helicity even more

I wonder if we can escape that down this way. Seems like this tries to happen northwest of here and that activity that does develop may try to strengthen through the morning as it heads into central/northern New England. If things sort of time right with that seems like it’s also just ahead of the warm front so maybe a line of broken supercells? Down here in CT we may escape and be able to push well into the mid 80’s for highs...although nothing really approaches (per 3km NAM) until 0z and then completely falls apart but then a huge redevelopment around 6z. Not much of a cap tomorrow so and some of the soundings down here are quite impressive by 20-21z so if a cell can pop and there is enough upper support around it has plenty to work with

Do you think cloud cover is a bit overdone? (This link I used to use to see cloud top temps doesn’t seem to have it anymore so not sure if there are indications of warning tops) but the IR doesn’t look horrible. But yeah I agree that the timing of things so late could be concerning. The NAM though does have some solid s/w energy moving through between 21z and 0z which I would think should initiate things sooner.

what's the forcing mechanism?

86/68 here...almost beautiful. Wish dews were over 70

what was the Euro like?

eh...when it comes to convection I think it is very difficult to compare events. You can compare synoptic features and upper-level patterns but that doesn't always translate to similar outcomes. With this setup we have increasing shear (though nothing overly crazy but sufficient), plenty of low-level moisture, and plenty of instability (mainly due to the presence of rich low-level moisture). Mid-level lapse rates are meh but we have a good shortwave and decent height falls. So we have pieces there it's just a matter of how do they come together? Questions also regarding cloud cover, any ongoing precip in the morning, etc also play into things.

Not a bad idea. My credit score keeps dropping and I'm not sure why...well I have an idea b/c it's dropped quite a bit. I have applied for several credit cards and loans and such the past few years which I know isn't really a good thing (as far as score impact) but when I check free monthly score from my bank it lists like top 3 reasons (not sure if that's applied to me or just in general) but a listing of a derogatory account has popped up and I am very confused b/c I pay all my bills on time. Haven't missed any sort of payment on anything since like 2008 or 2009. Thanks for the tip!!

Think he's on vacation

Random question... Are there people who can can go to and have them go over your credit report with you and such so if you had questions they could help answer them and provide some insight/advice? (And yes I know I would have to pay some money and I would be fine with that...just as long as it isn't anything overly crazy then I would just figure out some things myself).

GFS just as impressive

Yikes

Looks like storm mode may initially be discrete across eastern NY then forming into segments. Maybe some QLCS’ tomorrow?

Could be close. Models show activity moving through around that time

Shear does increase late afternoon into the early overnight. Nice little ULJ too

yeah when I saw that yesterday morning I was quite impressed. This is 6z NAM for Waterbury, CT Friday evening

NAM is very interesting for Friday.

wow didn't realize things were popping up already!

Freezing levels are right around 10,500' or so today with the (weakening) cold pool moving pretty much overhead. We do have some modest 0-6km shear too. I was thinking we could see something similar to that of western PA yesterday where they had a few 1'' hail reports. Some decent breaks of sun (at least in Danbury) so I think we should generate enough instability. Already 300-500 J of hail CAPE per mesoanalysis and we should end up with between 1000-1500 J of MLCape.

Watch for several hailers tomorrow. Maybe even a few cells producing severe hail (1-1.50''). Sort of shocked we aren't in at least a marginal. But I think tomorrow is a bit active

there is some room for a strong or severe thunderstorm overnight and through tomorrow afternoon right around where the warm front gets...might stay offshore but some models bring it into southern CT. Something to watch b/c instability will be there just south of the front with some decent shear.

This can sort of go in hand with what Scott is saying but alot of the problem too is upper-level support...or in this case lack of. With the higher heights out that way it's unlikely you'll get into the better upper support...or it will be tough for the upper-level support to progress east. IMO, the marine layer gets used a little bit too loosely...especially this time of year. When it comes to convection I think upper-level support plays a substantial role in the evolution and degree of sustainability. This is what I am doing for my senior research...wich I have only scrapped the surface at starting

I’ve beeb trying to get that book for years but the $$$$ is crazy