weatherwiz

I was wondering that myself...not only with regards to potential track but intensity as well.

This is an interesting point b/c I feel like this is a major bias within models and I think this is greatly seen with regards to tropical activity and greatly seen in the medium range. If you think about how many times in the past we've seen models in the medium range drive a tropical system into the east coast (or into SNE) anytime they sniff a high in the Atlantic it's pretty amazing. It's almost like in the medium range the models tend to do as you said...respond to what it depicts as a favorable environment. As you're certainly aware weather doesn't always work out that way lol. In the case of this system and exactly where the ridge amplifies is critical (which we know but my point is who's to say that amplification is going to occur right where models have it?). If that ridge axis is like 10-20° farther east there is an escape route (my thinking is the storm would curve and then maybe stall out and do a loop and whatever happens from here...not important) and if its like 10-20° farther west it probably goes into SC. If there is indeed latent heat feedback involved here that's yielding a critical error here and the question is well what does that critical error enact?

What is the meteorological (or I guess there are perhaps multiple influences) reasoning behind the rapidly developing and strengthening of the ridge? My take was that it was being influenced by the amplifying trough just off the west coast but I was also wondering if perhaps there some some relation to Florence and latent heat release? Almost looked like that once the models rapidly started to strengthen Florence with rapidly falling SLP the amplification of the ridging occurred in a heartbeat.

This is great...thank you. Yeah took a bit to load lol

Good point. Getting a landfall after a stall is even more anomalous then getting a landfall in the projected synoptic pattern. Plus there certainly would be some front moving towards the coast which would maybe steer it a bit farther away from the coast...or maybe it ingests moisture and we get a soaker down the road

Is there any way to view depth of SST's off the east coast? I'm also wondering that if the high allows Florence to slow down so much that it eventually rapidly weakens...perhaps before a landfall...if one were to happen. That brings me to the depth of the SST's b/c even though they support strengthening if the depth of the sufficiently warm waters is rather shallow upwelling would quickly erode the SST's.

I think Scott had mentioned this but models don’t seem to handle Atlantic rushing too well and often times overplay it...especially in the 6-10 day range. We’ve seen that happen so many times. Plus...there is a ton of dry air lurking around the Atlantic and probably going to see dry air off the coast after the FROPA. Shear may not be all that favorable...on a large scale either

When do we not see some models show any tropical system in the Atlantic not hit SNE or the EC in the 7-10 day range? Seems like it happens every time.

thanks!

Does anyone know how many 90F days BDL has had so far?

That's what I gather...a storm can move in from the east but it's highly anomalous. I just start to wonder if some people find any reason to say "the east coast needs to be on alert" or just find a reason to say the east coast will be hit. But looking at other factors...I guess shear has become a bit more favorable (though not sure what it looks like down the road) but there is still lots of dry air around in the Atlantic and even looking at some RH forecasts still lots of dry pockets around through model forecast hours.

Do you think there is a lot of stock in the concept of developing ridges in the central Atlantic and forcing tropical systems into the east coast? See that stated quite often when it comes to these systems which develop in the tropical Atlantic but how often does that actually happen where these ridges steer them into the east coast? I feel like all it takes is for a slight weakness in the ridge and that's it.

The upper-level pattern looks like crap across the United Stated for any type of east coast hit. Flow looks quite zonal and rather fast. I'm sure we would see lots of weak frontal passages and s/w move through the flow. Would think maybe FL could have a shot if Florence remained at a far enough south latitude.

Sweet!!

Yeah it’s pretty stacked. Can’t wait

I think speakers are full but the registration fee is only $30!!!

Can you and/or Ekster make it to the Tristate conference?

I’m not actually a huge fan of that whole MI connection to SNE thing...there is so much more to it. First off, it has had success when there’s been the advection of an EML but outside of that I can’t think of anything.

Yes to all.

Hello Everyone, At the end of September is the 7th annual Tri-State Weather Conference hosted by Western Connecticut State University in Danbury, CT. The registration fee is $30. This year's conference is action packed with alot of great speakers! Details are attached: Hope to see some of you there! SCHEDULE-SPEAKERS 7TH TRI-STATE CONF 9-29-18.docx

Hello Everyone, At the end of September is the 7th annual Tri-State Weather Conference hosted by Western Connecticut State University in Danbury, CT. The registration fee is $30. This year's conference is action packed with alot of great speakers! Details are attached: Hope to see some of you there! SCHEDULE-SPEAKERS 7TH TRI-STATE CONF 9-29-18.docx

Hello Everyone, At the end of September is the 7th annual Tri-State Weather Conference hosted by Western Connecticut State University in Danbury, CT. The registration fee is $30. This year's conference is action packed with alot of great speakers! Details are attached: SCHEDULE-SPEAKERS 7TH TRI-STATE CONF 9-29-18.docx Hope some of you can make it!

they aren't but I'm sure I can get that to happen!

well I sort of am lol. I knew it a bit more back like 15 years ago when I was in high school but then after high school I never used it and fell behind the 8-ball with all the additional features and such. I got back into it around 2011 when I started doing stuff with tornado data and I had things figured out but then I got away from it for some years when I went back to school and I completely forgotten everything I had done lol. Basically what I'm doing is inputting tornado data for the month of March and doing several "climo" period breakdowns...1950-1965 is one of them. So I'll take the average of this period, use the STDEV.P function to get a standardized value, then I can take a monthly value, subtract it from the average and divide by the STDEV.P value and that nets the standard deviation...at least I hope this is correct.

Thanks...this is what I figured but these newer updates get me all confused and some things I know are a bit different. Now they have all these different standardized options. I originally had used the STDEV.P function which I guess will still apply here. I'm going to take an online course in excel lol