weatherwiz
-
Posts
76,499 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by weatherwiz
-
Holy tomato...200+ knot ULJ over the southeast
-
GFS does look like a potentially good setup for severe in the south around 180-hours! No strong EML signals but some EML air may make the ride from Mexico
-
That was pretty crazy.
-
That's an excellent point. Combine a fast flow with numerous pieces and it's nothing but chaotic hell with solutions which range from OTS to roof crushing snows. But to your initial point...I get what you're saying...and actually given the fast flow and room for phasing not to happen...well an intense system is not as certain.
-
What is pretty certain by this point (with further strengthening from ensemble support) is this is going to be a pretty intense system. But agreed...the NAM (even though we're taking 84-hours) is a rather potent look. Much more compact and intense with the vorticity whereas the GFS is more hung back and not nearly as defined with the trough. I was also look at that jet streak over the ridge arc...that is certainly going to be a factor.
-
It does seem like there is fairly good agreement about how the pattern evolves across the PAC and building of the ridge into the west. Significant differences then occur with how everything evolves downstream. One thing that's been in the back of my mind is how this system evolves in the southeast. Right now models aren't too enthused with the development of convection across the southeast or off the coast but if that were to change that could add to this shortwave mess.
-
12z NAM gets into the range of Friday evening now...the differences in H5 between the models even for Friday evening (which isn't entirely that far out there) is insane. Hopefully over these next 24-hours there is some sort of clustering/agreement of the large-scale features.
-
1989. (I know the reference is the 1989-1990 season but just keep it at 1989 :D) But 1990 was a solid tornado season for NY and PA
-
Totally agree...not only is the climate shift a major part in this but the expanding of the data base too.
-
let's hope those 89 analogs stick around come July
-
I'll take rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, hail, grauple, rain/snow mix...not picky.
-
the best sound in the world is the pinging of sleet in Tolland
-
This deserves a and at the same time
-
Winter 2020 New England Banter and General Obs
weatherwiz replied to CapturedNature's topic in New England
WTH has been wrong with this page? It's been horrific the past several months https://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products/bullform.all.php#bottom Thank God for this https://leonardo.met.tamu.edu/Weather_Interface/index.php -
QPF shouldn't be a problem with this system (which hopefully will work out to our benefit) but take a look at the individual members for 12z and 18z Saturday...just all over the place. Really tough to generate any sort of idea right now on what to expect. Very true. All the reason why I think in this situation you have to be careful with using just an EPS mean.
-
but it's not a good thing to see..it can not only skew the mean but pretty much make the mean useless.
-
The individual EPS members are all over the place
-
Feb 06 half my snow totals fell in about 3-hours (13'' out of 26 or 27). 2013 too...like 14'' or 15'' in 3 hours or 4 hours.
-
I can't wait until convective season begins...at least those pan out. and note I did NOT say severe...I said convection.
-
I'm actually pretty pumped not to see any major storm signals in the long-range...seems like we do well when something pops up around the D5-6 timeframe instead of 240-hours out. But at the rate we're going...pretty soon the D11-15 period will be looking for 70's and 80's!!!
-
From what I read not long ago it's still a bias, though not as extreme as it used to be.
-
I know they've made some incredible strides into their layout and structure...just did some browsing around and the site has really become much more user friendly and it looks like navigation between products/models is rather simple too. That's another factor into the whole wide options of models available...if you have to spend a ton of time navigating or exploring to find products...it gets annoying and too time consuming. But Pivotal looks like it really makes it easier to do all of this.
-
that's one of the questions I try and ask myself...does what is being presented make sense but sometimes I don't get very far as I still struggle with a stronger understanding
-
I completely agree.
-
not really...just not enough time. I like to spend a ton of time looking at each model and do the best I can to understand what's going on within each and then run through a list of questions in my head. I don't bother to just glance b/c that does nothing too me...it's super easy to just look at one product of a model (like SLP and QPF) but you're not really answering any questions. If I can't devote a certain amount of time to analyzing then to me its not really worth it.
