weatherwiz

Hello Everyone, At the end of September is the 7th annual Tri-State Weather Conference hosted by Western Connecticut State University in Danbury, CT. The registration fee is $30. This year's conference is action packed with alot of great speakers! Details are attached: SCHEDULE-SPEAKERS 7TH TRI-STATE CONF 9-29-18.docx Hope some of you can make it!

they aren't but I'm sure I can get that to happen!

well I sort of am lol. I knew it a bit more back like 15 years ago when I was in high school but then after high school I never used it and fell behind the 8-ball with all the additional features and such. I got back into it around 2011 when I started doing stuff with tornado data and I had things figured out but then I got away from it for some years when I went back to school and I completely forgotten everything I had done lol. Basically what I'm doing is inputting tornado data for the month of March and doing several "climo" period breakdowns...1950-1965 is one of them. So I'll take the average of this period, use the STDEV.P function to get a standardized value, then I can take a monthly value, subtract it from the average and divide by the STDEV.P value and that nets the standard deviation...at least I hope this is correct.

Thanks...this is what I figured but these newer updates get me all confused and some things I know are a bit different. Now they have all these different standardized options. I originally had used the STDEV.P function which I guess will still apply here. I'm going to take an online course in excel lol

Does anyone know Excel well? I'm using excel to find lower and higher quartiles and technically you have to have the data from lowest to highest (when doing this stuff by hand). But do you need this to be the case in excel or does it not matter if the data isn't lowest to highest?

I love snow...hate the cold but social media makes me cringe and ha led to me to not like snow as much anyore

Certainly points the weenie in the right direction

might be able to get a few decent storms in NY or maybe even in Maine. A little nervous though to do any chasing b/c I've had some lights come on in my car.

Need a reason to chase Wednesday...

Shear looks like crap and looks like there is a good amount of dry air over the Tropical Atlantic

This is incredible and extremely helpful information! Thank you!!!

Which would be a more trustworthy source for forecasting wind direction...MOS or Bufkit?

especially when it's just as the appetizer

Diet soda is probably one of the worst things that are out there. A friend of mine's mom had a heart attack several years back and the doctors attributed it directly to diet coke.

I'm not necessarily choosing that specific time frame...it was more of just for an example context. I'm just trying to figure out how I would go about this in the most accurate way possible. What I was thinking of doing was use the data I've calculated for all the baseline periods (I also have the calculations of comparing a single year to the averages) and then just construct a list of most active years and least active years (but in this case season is year because I'm just doing seasons right now). So say I do like March of 1965. March of 1965 had 34 confirmed tornadoes. The March 1950 - Present average is 50 and standardized number was 27.6436 So comparing March of 1965 to the 1950 - present average that March was -0.58 standard deviations below average. Then I could just compare March of 65 for all the other periods. The point would be to just look at teleconnections/patterns and such and comparing active vs. inactive periods.

I'm in a pickle right now. I was doing my senior research project on upper-level jet dynamics and Northeast severe weather but I was thinking of perhaps switching to something I was working on with tornadoes but I don't want to do anything that's going to be stupid or wrong. I had been doing a little something (which I started like 7 years ago) about quantifying tornadoes and determining what constitutes as an active or inactive season. I have computed averages and standard deviations using the following periods; 1950 - Present, 1950-1991 average, 1992- Present average, and then I did 15-year intervals...1950-1964, 1960-1974, 1970-1984, 1980-1994, 1990-2004, 2000-2014. Let's say I choose to right now focus on like 1990-2004...I was just wanted to make sure it's not incorrect to compare like 1998 to that 1990-2004 average

Does this make any sense at all... Say you construct a 15-year average of data and the range is from like 1990-2004. Does it make sense if you compare a single year's data record within that range of years to the computed average for that period? Is that alright to do?

Trust me this isn't true I'll be 30 in October but I've known for a while I really need to improve dieting and such. Once I finish school when all I really have to worry about is work. But I have also been switching to French Vanilla creamer when I make my own coffee and with this I don't add any sugar. But it's not a bad idea to can the liquid sugar.

Ehhh in the end there really isn’t a whole lot out there that is truly healthy for you...especially in this day and age with all the crap out in stuff. And I must be an outlier b/c all those affects about leading to eating more and taking in more calories and gaining weight seems to have skipped me. As far as heart disease goes it runs pretty high in my family anyways. If something is in your genetics there isn’t much you can do. And all those effects listed (and the same thing goes with everything that’s bad out there) you’re not guaranteed to suffer from those effects...the odds just increase. But with all this said once I get myself on a less intensive schedule not having school and working 7 days a week I do plan on drastically changing my diet and start exercising. My diet now is horrific

Eh I’ve cut back. Used to do 8. You don’t swallow clumps of sugar when it’s liquid

Typically do iced coffees in the summer. Medium with 2 cream and 6 liquid sugar!

I have that same exact question and I have been able to find nothing. In fact, I have had trouble finding sources to view model data for Hawaii. Tropical Tidbits was probably the best site because you could get pretty close on HI but the products are very limited. I had juse been using the MAG page from NOAA and clicking the HI sector and using the few models available to look at projected rainfall totals.

Is the NWS doing any rainfall total maps? I saw something posted from their social media but can't find anything on their home page. Using some of the radar sites for estimation but the quality is poor and doesn't give a good read over the island as a whole.

Yes...Ghost Island!

No...that’s why he puked all over Will’s car several years back and killed his brakes