weatherwiz

This setup I think drew alot of attention away from Isaias up this way. Obviously Sunday wasn't going to be a widespread severe weather day or even be a widespread t'storm day. It was just if one storm developed, the chances of producing a tornado were on the higher side...and that's exactly what happened. It's extremely challenging trying to convey impacts for separate weather events when they're so close together. OTOH though...seeing what happened scares me. It goes to show how little warning time we may have if the big one comes. I would tend to think that we would certainly have an idea several days out...at least enough of an idea to spread the word, however, and this is the scariest part, that is not going to be a guarantee...there is going to be that "maybe" or "possibility"...when people hear those words or uncertainties, more often than not they're going to blow it off. But the time we would be 100% certain...it would be way too late to take the appropriate measures. Let's look at Isaias from another perspective...obviously there wasn't any guidance having this storm take off and strengthen off the Carolina or southeast coast...however, that window of opportunity was there and we've seen in the past how quickly these things can turn into monsters in that region. It tried too...it really did. If there was probably a window of another 6-12 hours before landfall it may have strengthened...and by quite a bit. I remember Monday night watching just before landfall and started to get an uneasy feeling (maybe it wasn't Monday night...maybe late afternoon) but it looked like it was starting to get its act together in a hurry. This is what scares me b/c you get a storm...even if its only a TS in that area...you just never know. It's like a system in the GoM...I never trust those.

Looks like things are worsening a bit in Spain

ORD gusted to 54 knots and I think MDW gusted to 63 knots

there are so many embedded mesos in that derecho. Crazy part is...straight line wind damage is probably far worse than tornadic damage in this situation

Any guess as to where it tracked?

went from I think marginal at 6z to enhanced at 13z then moderate at 1630z. Chicago virtually went from marginal > ENH > MOD

and just to think they were only in marginal this morning

want to see no tree left standing

I think the derecho is the one doing the chasing

I think I would honestly rather chase in IA than OK

Oof

Great information, thank you. I did not know this.

which causing the mesovorticies to form? Is it associated from the overnight/early AM convection? Didn't really pay much attention to the setup but now I wish I did. that type of MLJ moving over an EML with lapse rates over 8 and over 3000 MLCAPE...yikes. Rather significant s/w rotating through too

I see what you're saying. It's crazy how quick those processes work. Being on the warning desk out there in these situations must make the heart race. That line went from sub-severe to destructive winds in no time. Also noting cells quickly developing behind this line again

Gotta figure out how to increase speed but holy shit does that bow out as it crosses through IMG_4550.mov

Now this a true severe thunderstorm watch

This statement (while I can see how it makes obvious sense) isn't necessarily a correct statement in terms of adjusting to heat vs. cold. It's not as simple a "you can always put more clothes on". Extreme heat and extreme cold are both big killers every year but there are discrepancies as to which is the bigger killer. Some studies suggest that extreme cold kills far more people than extreme heat while other studies suggest the opposite. When it's extremely hot there are things you can easily do to maintain your body temperature or prevent it from rising...drinking water, staying in shade, minimal activity. Wen it's extreme cold just "adding layers" isn't going to be an answer. You're still being exposed to cold and your body temperature is still slowly falling. Humans can still function with body temperatures around 100 (obviously you feel like shit with a fever but you're not doing damage to your organs). But you're body temperature starts getting 3+ below our average temperature that can start to result in some minor issues. The "you can always put more clothes on" statement works great for indoors bur in extreme conditions that has zero value.

The march towards breaking 90F days at BDL is in. Exciting times ahead

Talk about the perfect definition of a tornado associated with a TC low topped supercell. Waterspout gets on land and quickly lifts up

EF-1 tornado confirmed in Westport Tuesday. 3rd tornado of the year in CT...all 3 within a 2-day span

Maybe when the AMO flips we'll get them again.

Probably about as long as it takes the Mets to get a competent owner

If a tree falls down in the forest, and nobody is around to hear it, did it really fall?

Nope...and looks like around the same area too that got smoked the other day. I saw they had FFW earlier