weatherwiz

Tornado watch out to the southwest!!!

Tornado Watch coming for parts of PA and NJ!!!!!!

Agreed. And it won't take much either

There's been some hints behind this initial activity there could be some breaks...or at least enough thinning to provide a boost in heating/mixing

I think there is the chance someone along a line from SE CT to southern RI/southeast MA gusts to 80 later today. If convection is strong enough 85 is even a possibility.

If that verifies later there are going to be significant issues to our southwest. Over 200 J of 3km CAPE with these dynamics. Waiting for the 12z observed sounding data to be available ughhh

Prime example. BDL vs. HVN.

I'm actually a bit surprised they didn't bring an enhanced risk into PA or NJ and a slight into SNE. I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado watch go up to our southwest a bit later on and may extend into parts of CT. I could even argue for a small area of 10% TOR probs in SE PA.

Noon and 4:00 PM though for eastern sections through about 6:00 PM. I think winds subside rather quickly behind the front though they will still remain rather gusty (35-40 mph).

That's a really nice surge of instability ahead of the main line. Going to see a quite a bit of wind damage from that. Still quite concerned across SE PA and NJ. Two opportunities for severe weather. 1) With that main line in which I think they see widespread damaging winds with gusts 65-75...maybe even an 80 along with potential for an embedded tornado or two. 2) A very low probability for a few discrete supercells to form. Still think the potential exists for a strong tornado there

I think there is a low probability for a strong tornado across SE PA or NJ. There is going to be a very narrow corridor...I mean very narrow of a rather impressive overlap of ingredients

don't fly kites

0z HRRR REALLY emphasizing this idea

Really going to have to watch potential for QLCS embedded tornadoes across SE PA and NW NJ tomorrow afternoon.

Now that you mention it I do recall a pretty extensive wind map

ohhhh I would love to see a national watch/warning from that. Oh man I wonder if one exists.

I can't remember anything like that.

This is absolutely ridiculous. Just about the entire eastern third of the country under wind advisory or high wind watch.

that cell that went through Soso, MS was downright scary and another headed right for them.

Man I can't remember many times where forecast models were throwing out 100+ knots of wind at 925 and as much as 110+ knots of wind at 850. Obviously there is going to be a rather stout inversion, but synotpic winds are going to be quite impressive. The bigger concern is obviously going to be convective potential. I think we'll see the slight risk expanded well into SNE. I think we will see a line of convection blow through during the afternoon with localized gusts of 65-75 mph. I do think southwest of us...SE PA, NJ, SE NY see an upgrade to an enhanced risk with a widespread destructive damaging wind event with numerous gusts in the 65-75 mph range. What's even more intriguing is what occurs behind this line. There are some indications perhaps there may be some breaks in the clouds with a bit of heating. This may promote the development of discrete supercells across parts of PA and SE NY so I think there is the potential for a few tornadoes there tomorrow afternoon. I think ingredient wave very rapidly across southern New England, however, there is potential this threat may extend into southwest CT. If we were able to warm sector a bit better here in southern New England I would see the enhanced risk get into parts of southern New England but I think we'll kinda be a bit removed fro best ingredients. Based on what looks to transpire from the mid-Atlantic into well at least PA/SE NY/NJ I think we may be looking at a serial derecho on our hands.

I don’t see much growing going on. Trees are more bare than my body right now

I am bit confused by something. The SPC mentions capping across the Deep South. I’m not totally sure I see capping...at least capping to inhibit convection from forming too early or whatever. I do see capping which may inhibit vertical growth but too me it looks like a pretty dirty warm sector tomorrow with a rapidly weakening EML and poor llvl lapse rates. thoughts?

I think tomorrow will be a big day but I am a little concerned with the lack of a stronger EML/CAP in the warm sector and there could be a quite a bit of cloud cover. I think the overall tornado potential could be mitigated a bit.

both NAM and GFS pretty aggressive with elevated CAPE. I could see a severe threat getting perhaps into Fairfiled County CT. I even think a small tornado threat could develop across parts of PA/NJ. Could be wild across the mid-Atlantic Monday morning.

ahhh gotcha...yeah I agree