weatherwiz

GFS pattern ugly for big severe virtually anywhere moving forward. Guess it's a good thing I can't go to OK lol

a batch of some heavy rain isn't far away from us

I was going to start a thread for this earlier in the week but never got to it. Was thinking there could be some small hail/gusty winds in stronger storms.

Agreed

My former professor would yell at you for that.

ehhh I would hedge on the caution of that. We are under the influence of an upper-level trough for much of the weak so with any heating we'll likely see clouds develop in the afternoon. There should also be at least a few days with scattered showers around given the fast/active flow.

SEVERE WEATHER SEASON IS HERE!!!!!! Welcome to May 1!!!!!!!!!! A HUGE milestone

WELCOME TO SEVERE SEASON!!!!!

Getting there!

ONE DAY!!!!

Not the start to May I was hoping for. Just praying and hoping that as the pattern does change we'll see a solid severe threat with it.

right on schedule!

2 MOTE DAYS!!!!

well Kevin's been leafed out since January

hardly

Ridiculous...may as well cancel summer and severe wx season. fooking awful

3 DAYS!!!!!

brutal

yeah with that ridge becoming as dominant as it is out west and continued signals for below-average heights to our north it's going to be tough to get prolonged warmth in here...only really good chance for warmer temperatures is just climo lol

It's quite possible...it's super close. Looks like the pattern relaxes a bit but with that ridge so massive out west and still signals of weak blocking to the north there doesn't appear to be strong signals for some persistently nice weather.

Saturday looks like it could potentially be a rather nice day...maybe similar to yesterday? Anyways though Euro/GFS today not promising for much of a change moving through the first week of May ughhh. This really does feel like 2018....which may not be a bad thing

Well we've finally made it to severe wx season and what better way to kick it off with the opportunity for convection...not talking about severe convection unfortunately, however, perhaps some gusty shower or t'storms with potential for small hail or grauple. But since this is a specific event a separate thread for that will come shortly (as in soon)!! Anyways, the April pattern has been nothing short of miserable...chilly, rainy, snow (well not miserable), windy, yuck. There are indications, however, this pattern may finally relax and we may introduce more of a zonal flow across the country. If anything, hopefully this leads to more seasonable temperatures. Perhaps the biggest thing to watch moving through the month will be opportunities for severe wx. Signals in the long range keep emerging strong ridging across the west. Obviously this isn't good for severe wx aspects in the central U.S. but this can shift favorable conditions for severe wx farther east...not necessarily into our region, but OV, mid-Atlantic, and if the proper pattern, into the Northeast. If anything, perhaps this can provide us with some opportunities for some NW flow events or some EML advection...this of course would have to occur via EML air becoming entrained in the exit region of the ridge and traversing through the upper-Midwest into Canada and then from southeast Canada into our area. I think too these EML's may be a bit easier to advect in than ones that pinch off from the SW U.S. b/c those have to traverses through the Plains and OV and stand a better chance at being moderating from warm/moist Gulf air surging northward. Actually having a ridge setting up in the west for May makes the weather geek in me happy as I was going to go to OK the end of May guhhhhhhhh

5 DAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is what I’m afraid of...good pattern for EML trajectory with good CAPE but a crappy northeast pattern shunts it south...boooooooooooooooooooooooooo