weatherwiz

Small hail with some of the stronger storms today I would think. Localized gusts 45-55 perhaps

We could be setting the stage for a MAJOR severe wx setup in May again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yeah there is certainly potential for a rather extensive widespread damaging wind event...tornado potential too. Going to be tough to resolve all the details

MARGINAL RISK EXPANDED NORTH!!!!

Still looking good for a line of strong convection to move through early tomorrow afternoon. Embedded gusts 45-55 mph likely then becoming QUITE windy behind the front. ME going to get smoked too.

Need to take the mind of Corona for a bit. A vigorous piece of shortwave energy diving southeast through Canada Thursday swings a cold front through the region late morning/early afternoon. The synoptic setup presents an intriguing spring-like look. The main sfc low projected to pass through central New England prevents the warm front from lifting through the region, meanwhile a weak area of high pressure northeast of ME helps keep colder air locked in place across northern New England with colder air being reinforced by the passage of the (strong) cold front. As the shortwave amplifies upon digging through southeast Canada rather impressive dynamics develop aloft with a 500mb jet streak exceeding 120-130 knots overnight Thursday. The result from this system...a significant spring snowstorm across ME with rain and an embedded line of t'storms moving through southern New England on Thursday. While the warm front never gets into southern New England, an airmass characterized by dewpoints climbing into the mid-to-upper 40's, temperatures into the 50's, and fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/KM) will result in modest elevated instability. This combined with the strong dynamics aloft and forcing from the cold front will result in the development of a low topped squall line which may be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. Meanwhile, in northern ME a several-plus hour thump of heavy, wet snow is likely given favorable thermal profile and strong lift through the DGZ. Combination of strong winds and heavy, wet snow may result in isolated-to-scattered power outages. Given the vigorous lift with this system and influx of warmer and more moist air into the CCB, there will likely be a band of extremely heavy snow (rates 1.5''-2''/hr) which may yield a narrow band of 12-20'' of snow. Fun day in store!

yeah I think Thursday we see a line of strong t'storms move through. Was thinking of making a thread.

Can't believe we're a month away from severe wx season...insane

ONE MONTH TO GO!!!

I think beginning next year the countdown thread will be until March instead of May. Been getting a few nice events the past several years this early. Since I hold the copyright to it I can make that change!!!

Just had a nice rumble!!!!

Jus tv a warm up for severe wx season. Crazy we’re almost a month away

Yes haha

Thanks! This clarifies things a bit. I was getting lost in the discussion haha

I’m so confused right now

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I think Will and Scott have briefly mentioned that it does seem to be running low now but your point is very valid

I feel likE if a high risk was coming there would have been an MCD

Almost time for the new day 1!

Only if all these restrictions end the virus is pretty contained

Quarantined in New England. title for James new book!

Might see a high risk later in parts of IA/IL later actually kinda scary given Chicago is in this potential

yeah that's something I've been looking at. I was initially thinking that the greatest degree of overnight convection may actually be a bit farther north and east of where the greatest potential is, however, the past few runs of the HRRR seem to be a bit more aggressive with overnight convection down into IA and into IL. Since this does look like a later show tomorrow anyways I guess that gives some more time for atmospheric recovery...but this is a pretty insane setup. Dews in the mid-to-upper 60's under very steep lapse rates...this isn't uncommon but put these ingredients under those shear parameters...yikes.

My God...the 12z models tomorrow across parts of IA/IL are jaw dropping scary. High risk with 30% TOR hatched coming at 1730? Maybe even 45% hail

Yikes...could be scary around Chicago tomorrow