weatherwiz

I always forget but I am not sure if the distance requirement is the same for the classification of each type (serial, progressive, and hybrid). I think the criteria may be a bit more loose for serial derechos.

May be able to argue serial derecho here

Pretty impressive overlap of 3km CAPE/3km lapse rates. Couple that with a LLJ max moving overhead with a vigorous s/w moving through...viola!

Kinda surprised BDL reported 64 mph. Didn’t really seem like it. I guess though there might have been a very brief burst. Have to watch video and see if I can spot it

Would estimate 45-50 for gusts at BDL.

Just saw a CG!!!

Lightning!!!!

As mine gets further removed from radar it will “look like” it’s weakening

WOW

Gust front/shelf becoming visible!!!!

Damn...70-80 mph only a few thousand feet off the ground. About to get rocked at BDL!!

At BDL...let’s go!

That is a very healthy looking line. Actually a bit more lightning than I even anticipated but there is quite a bit of llvl CAPE associated with it too

yeah LCL's are super high...but looks like we see a swath of rather high effective SRH move through later on...shear is certainly there. there is enough llvl CAPE to at least peak the idea I think.

HRRR for ORH and BDL...about as strong of a wind signal as you'll see here BDL

Low probability for a tornado across central MA I think too

I think we will have just enough instability, combined with rather cold temperatures aloft to get some lightning with this activity.

yeah that's a pretty significant increase in lightning over the past half hour or so...certainly looks as impressive as previous bursts.

can't rule out some rotation

delicious model...some of it's members include Lays; Ruffles, Doritos

Thinking this looks pretty good across western MA. Could see some gusts 60-65 mph as a broken line moves through. Pretty strong signal for winds.

Pretty scary that we're continuing to see model intensity guidance bump in the stronger direction. I agree with @WxWatcher007 too...not very sold on the rapid weakening prior to LF.

A vigorous s/w trough with attendant cold front is expected to sweep across New England Wednesday. Ahead of this feature, surface temperatures should warm into the 60's to even lower 70's. While dewpoints will be modest (generally in the 50's) sufficient moisture should be available as evident by PWAT values ranging between 0.80'' - 1.00''. A pocket of unseasonably cold air aloft in the mid-levels moving through will result in a plume of steep lapse rates passing overhead. This, combined with surface temperatures into the 60's to lower 70's with modest dewpoints should result in MLCAPE values on order of 250-500 J/KG. This feature will also be associated with rather strong wind shear, characterized by a 500mb jet max of 100+ knots with a low-level jet of 30-40+ knots. This will result in sufficient shear to assist with storm formation and storm organization. Multiple short-line segments are likely to develop Wednesday afternoon as this feature propagates across New England. Combination of strong shear aloft, steep lapse rates, inverted-V profiles, and potential for strong mixing will result in the potential for damaging wind gusts. If stronger convection can materialize, small hail would become a possibility. The greatest potential is from north-central NY through central New England where the best overlap of ingredients look to exist.