weatherwiz

Agreed...this could be overdone or underdone. I think there arguments that can be made for both cases. While we don't have those intense lower baroclinic gradients like we do during the cool season, we do have higher instability so the question becomes, how much does that compensate? But in the essence, PWATs are very high along a narrow corridor and you do have a strengthening southerly component to the llvl flow which should aid in convergence along the boundary. This may be a situation where western areas cash in again when it's eastern areas which need it most

Major differences between some of the models. With these differences, however, it should be noted there is strong agreement that there will be a narrow north-to-south axis of showers and areas of heavier rains it's just a question of where the diffuse warm front and stronger llvl forcing setup. West of 91 obviously stands the best chance for some heavier rains but that could also be as far west as the HV. Really challenging forecast here b/c the warm front (as diffuse as it is) is quite sloped.

This is just utterly depressing. I feel like Frosty the Snowman with someone slowly removing my top hat and laughing as I slowly melt away into a puddle of nothing-ness.

I can access! Woah this is awesome thanks!

Does anyone know if there is a NBM verification similar to this anywhere?

Could see some nice rain tomorrow night

Yeah we had that somewhat similar scenario a few weeks back but just didn't pan out. We'll see what happens moving forward. I think climatologically the period with greatest severe potential is like mid-June into mid-July so we're already into this period. It's one thing to get a favorable pattern, but its a whole other ordeal to get perfect timing of everything (we know this to be very true in winter too lol).

I believe that stood as the largest hail record in CT until 05/15/2018 (I think there was baseball hail in CT during that event). What's really bizarre is that storm occurred along a backdoor cold front. But there was an EML in place with some enhanced shear and enough llvl moisture present to get something to pop. It takes some serious updraft velocities to get hail that big.

NAM with a big soaker tomorrow night too

NBM pushes BDL into the upper 70's tomorrow...GFS and NAM several degrees lower

I agree...I think the GFS has done a pretty decent job overall, especially with the tossing out there of flags putting a halt on higher heat and humidity ever really getting into the region...at least on a consistent basis. I know we had a pretty good discussion going on last week regarding whether temperatures thus far (not just max's but min's) have been above-average or below-average. But you bring up a great point about how much the departure's have been from average. It just always seems we're somewhere in the +1 to +3 range no matter what. Even if we get a month which starts off below-average we're still ending up somewhere in that range. Given how strong of a CC signal we seem to be having, you have to wonder if perhaps 30-year averages is actually too long of a scale. Not say this should be abolished, but maybe there should be another data set created which has a smaller time-scale (like 15-years). we're obviously warming at a pretty sizable rate...and whether that is just the Earth going through a cycle, if human influences are driving it, or a mixture of both doesn't matter...the warming is happening. But I wonder if just looking at a smaller climo period would actually yield data or results which just may be more realistic or more representative of the current state. If we were to compare daily's now say to the past 15-years as opposed to the past 30...how would the data look? Quite certain these higher departures would be much closer to average...but all this does is really hide or dampen the truth of what is going on.

Maybe this is shaping up to be like July 1995 where we get into July and the heat/humidity pour in here all the while we remain on the NW periphery of the upper ridge and get a woods destroying derecho to blow through with no trees left standing and all buildings roof-less.

so did Bruce Cassidy and he still got the boot

I'm not so sure I'd jump the gun and say this weekend is going to be crazy humid (widespread mid-to-upper 60's or higher). Potential to mix down some much drier air aloft.

I just want to take a bath and have someone drop a toaster in it.

Ahhh good connection.

I spent the most of the day outside…FREEZING. I wish I had my sweatshirt but only had a light jacket. But my sweatshirt was in Windsor locks. I did have a winter hat in my winter survival gear in the trunk…almost put that on. I mean whoever is working the Mother Nature shift today is a total poop head…this is a sick and cruel joke and nobody finds it funny.

This is fooking BS…this is terrible. This is miserable. This is pure garbage.

It’s so cold out ughhhh

I think there is an updraft going up right on top of me!!!

Yeah looking decent...good lightning and decent gusts

I can see updrafts of rising air feeding into it!!!!

Looks like the core of strongest stuff will go to the north ughhh