Been in Springfield...closer to Wilbraham the past several months. It stopped now but it was consistent from when I woke up (a bit after 7 until about 20-30 min ago).
It does look like there should be at least increasing potential for precipitation up this way moving into the upcoming few weeks. Looks like lots going on down in the deep south and Gulf of Mexico (not necessarily tropical but developing lows along stalled or slowly propagating fronts). Hopefully we can establish a more SW flow in the mid-upper levels.
You would think so but it really isn't. Although I think it tends to do better when there is a well-defined lifting mechanism (like a cold front or pre-frontal trough) and larger-scale lift. But days in which convection is of the pop-up variety it's not very good. But given how small of a scale we're dealing with regarding the pop-up stuff, even the HRRR I don't think is high enough resolution to sniff out those processes.
Sometimes I wonder if there are too many forecast products available on the models. If it wasn't for QPF charts or snowfall maps how many storms would get "hyped" up?
Especially if GFS is correct. Not very often you see NAM MOS > GFS MOS with temps. While I'm a big fan of NBM for temps I think tomorrow is a prime example of when it should be tossed.
Despite how tilted the structure is early on looks like it tries to become vertically stacked and occlude rather quickly. Something to watch too when taking into account max rain totals.