weatherwiz

I am mostly playing around. I know it's early to really dig into these details but I love looking for the weenie aspect. I just looked at the PYM bufkit and yeah...that is absolutely wild

In these sense of where this occurs but it's likely pretty right with this idea.

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

Very odd from the 18z GEFS, however, I think you can kinda see why the mean was farther east. Just comparing 12z GFS/18z GFS (no comparison to other models) looks like there are some deviations in the evolution of the southern s/w between about 0z-12z Saturday. There are some differences with the north stream too. While perhaps an outlier this still tells us that despite getting closer, any subtle changes with any of these features is going to yield wide swing in potential outputs. The goal posts are still wide-ish

It's definitely stronger and a bit more west with the ridge axis compared to the 12z run and 18z NAM...here we go

Almost forgot 18z GFS is running. Anthony forgot to remind us...what a slacker

Just give me a 980's or 970's low as it's passing southeast. Getting anything deeper (especially too intense deepening) and bad things happen. Precip starts to get more banded so while some cash in you need to be lucky and occlusion can happen to rapidly so you choke off the moist inflow and the CCB just shuts off and everything goes to poop. Save the 950's for tropical

Beautiful. I have a shaky hand.

now's the time to upgrade the camera...by like 50 generations

Some decent WAA well out ahead of it with just enough lift

Game 6 EDIT: Will beat me to it. Should have figured

About 2,500 feet. That is insane. Dendrites will be ripped to shreddies. Going to have to keep this in mind when making snowfall forecasts and ratios.

This is most likely going to happen. We're going to see two bands with two max areas and subsidence screw zones in between.

How did people live before model snowfall maps

I think it depends. When the H7 low is more tightly closed off and consolidated I think this usually results in the deformation fairly close to the center...like 50-75 miles NW but when it's more elongated in nature the best deformation is significantly farther northwest (like 75-100 miles). Inflow should be phenomenal.

Although I wonder if this is a situation where the initial bad (which will be the strongest) actually materializes much farther NW than what is being shown and then as the storm matures and the centers tighten, the band then collapse and traverses over much of the region then finally sitting and rotting (probably eastern sections) and during this transition a second more weaker band materializes like 75-miles or whatever west of the main band.

Don't really like where the 700 low is developing and closing off.

EWB. The best part of big snow events...is looking at omega values on buflit. This also shows there is going to be serious subsidence somewhere. Cross sections are going to display this super well

Very poetic. I feel better already

This pisses me off..any other day 12z GFS bufkit is out by now. ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

May see legit thunderstorms out on the Cape. Severe thunderstorms containing heavy snow

dual-band signature very apparent here

12-24''+ of snow > relationship

I know it's early but I can wait to check out some 12z GFS bufkit profiles. Betting we see like -60 to -70 units of omega popping...hopefully well into the DGZ

Agreed...and IIRC that was something that was overlooked heading into the storm. There was so much focus on what looked great that many flags were missed.