weatherwiz

I think the majority of the dry air is a bit above the DGZ and there seems to be sufficient moisture within the DGZ so I don't think dry air was much of an issue in this case.

Matching up perfectly where DGZ RH and omega is overlapped

I'm sure it will. There's definitely some localized areas of enhanced lift out there. Guidance has been pretty consistent in this becoming more widespread; particularly across much of Connecticut going into the evening. It really isn't for another 3-4 hours we should see this take pace. This is also when forecast soundings showed by best profiles with strongest lift into the snow growth zone.

Just realized...get to watch the Bruins tonight and snow falling...woohoo

I still think 2-4'' is good for you.

Nothing crazy, but a bit of some enhanced 700 fronto over northwest Connecticut. Definitely something to watch over these next few hours

So far here in Springfield (a bit northeast of downtown)

You can tell there are some pretty solid soundings over Connecticut/Massachusetts. Have the area of steeper lapse rates working in as well. Definitely going to be (perhaps multiple) narrow corridors of some enhanced lift/rates later on (when assessing 925 fronto as well).

Light snow here in Springfield!

Great time…great to see everyone again!

Grabbed a table in the back. They said it’s going ti get busy

I just went into the back room

Just parked

Headed shortly

I am thinking of arriving by 12:30 as well.

This is what is going to be the biggest PITA. Models struggle with this

agreed...I think if this event pans out it is going to favor CT into RI and portions of interior SE MA

One concern I have with that stout high is it's going to be supplying a quite a bit of dry air to the north. This could really be a no-win situation event for most. If the storm track is farther south (which obviously is good for colder air) the northern edge of the precip shield could get destroyed with dry air. If the storm track is farther north you get increased moisture, but now you're talking about profile concerns (especially towards the coast).

This thing would come with quite the baroclinic zone too. Would probably see a rather narrow corridor of some pretty intense lift. With that pretty good CAD signal we should lock-in a cold enough airmass too, but the coastal plain will be a concern.

Just really have to watch this feature here for confluence. One thing models did horribly last year (And year prior I believe) was the handling of confluence across southeast Canada

https://www.stratobserve.com/ This site is incredible. Only issue is I am not totally sure how to interpret or put to use the information

I wonder if it has to do with with overall structure of the PV (both TPV and SPV). The PV looks quite robust and is displaced towards the other side of the hemisphere. Seems like interactions with lobes of the PV and the block are resulting in some funky looks (This is more me thinking out loud and may be meteorologically incorrect). Just picked a random time stamp for image below

Mis-type on my part...I was typing the season but should have said 2006-2007

I remember that b/c it was HORRIFIC. It kinda of fizzled out by the time it got here, but we had a severe weather outbreak on December 1, 2006 and there was a moderate risk that just got into Connecticut. but I think that January (or even early February) saw 60's in parts of SNE and 70's into NYC. We finally got some snow later in February and I think March. We got royally screwed with the SWFE too on Valentine's Day (Please Tip we don't need to hear the love story again). It was like 14F and sleet in West Hartford with only a few inches of snow. NNE got destroyed.

Wasn't it in like 2006?