weatherwiz

I have zero energy for that anymore. It blows.

Bruins play at 10:00 tonight...all the reason to stay up for the NAM/GFS...or try too. I miss the days of staying up for the 0z runs

Great stuff and write-up Ray (as per the usual). We share the same thinking for the most part.

If this ends up going east that's going to be absolute, total, 100000% cringe-worthy bull****. It will be catastrophic garbage. Only positive is all this time spent on this means time closer to May 1st. but this is bull****

gotcha...yeah that's certainly different than the above reference. I feel like it's impossible to really know ahead of time the merit in this. I think we have seen instances before where such a scenario did actually occur.

Yeah that low is legit. It's part of the same system that's impacting Florida now.

The biggest thing to just take from this is the continued idea to hold the energy back in the SW longer. But until we have a much better sampling/idea of this energy all ranges of possibilities remain and we'll continue to see wild swings and inconsistencies until it's just handled better.

Was just noticing that. Absolutely wild

Quite hung back and much stronger too

I went to Costco's and got cases of s.

I try to consider as many different pieces as possible and not just focus on a few specific things. I guess with this sometimes I'll put too much emphasis on "red flags" but more times than not when there are red flags involved (and many) you're more than likely to see lower end totals than higher end. In this particular setup, I'm not so sure there are necessarily red flags as there are caveats. This really ultimately comes down to southern stream evolution and northern stream involvement.

99.999999% of the time I am extremely conservative with snowfall forecasts but sometimes you gotta chuck high and far

Very confident in these ranges but obviously may have to do some shifting once we get a precisely clear consensus. I do think we'll see a max jackpot strip of 24-30'' but not sure if that includes Connecticut. I am fairly confident though we see heavy banding get much of Connecticut. Thinking snowfall rates 3-5'' under the band with ratios upwards of 18:1 to 20:1 (though I'll admit I'm not sure how to factor wind into lowering these).. Two big things of note: 1) QPF is going to be high 2) Lift will be through the roof 3) Way better than 10:1 ratios.

Eye candy time

Agreed. We still have a bit before those complicated process are fully resolved. The spread has lowered some but is still high enough to result in a wide swing of possibilities on a local level.

Completely agreed with the bolded. You're though talking about the evolution and track. I am just referring to the initial low pressure development. If the initial low development say is further east...with the changes in the trough that will result in an even more east swing. If the initial low development is farther east...with the changes in the trough you still get the east swing but that east swing isn't nearly as far east. you still have a more west track.

IMO it would impact how the low evolves/tracks...not necessarily initial development.

I don't know though if that's impacting where the sfc low first pops off the southeast coast. there is energy well ahead of that southern s/w in which the NAM is closer to the coast and the GFS is farther east Unless I'm totally wrong on this, low pressure development initially usually occurs very close to or right along the baroclinic zone (which is virtually just off the SE Coast...on all models). Even when looking at mid-upper levels that would favor initial development just off the coast...not as far east as GFS has

Like the GFS pops the sfc low much farther east than the NAM/Euro which (even though there are the slight differences with the shortwaves) could also explain a more east push and then a subsequent later capture.

Given where the baroclinic zone is on the GFS (unless the other factors are just playing a bigger role overall) I find it tough to believe the eastward track.

does the Euro/NAM combo rule still apply

Obviously going to have to factor wind into this somehow (which I will admit I don't have much knowledge on) but 12z NAM bufkit is spitting out some pretty impressive ratios. I wonder have to think under the CCB ratios probably approach 18:1 with snowfall rates 3-4'' per hour...maybe upwards of 5''.

same! just have to fill in some blanks after the full 12z suite (which for me is NAM, GFS, Euro...I don't care about any of these other models which I know is bad on my part). I already have an idea for snow map but given the magnitude I don't want to put it to paper yet until all 12z but I am certainly thinking 18-24'' for at least CT River East. Can't really do much with banding/subsidence until probably Friday.

Certainly should have enough confidence to do an initial snowfall map after the euro today! Already prepping the blog. This is nothing more exciting

Precisely. We all know models have a tendency to overdo QPF but like you said these are exceptional circumstances. I mean when you have 80+ knots of warm/moist inflow into such a cold airmass...it doesn't take rocket appliances to know what that will do or means.