weatherwiz

It's all coming together beautifully

WATCH POSSIBLE HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Mesoscale Discussion 1781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Tue Sep 13 2022 Areas affected...Eastern NY...Western New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131558Z - 131800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon over eastern New York and western New England. The strongest cells may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. Trends will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving across eastern NY/PA. Dewpoints ahead of the front remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s within the Hudson Valley and areas eastward. Considerable cloud cover in this region has limited daytime heating thus far, but temperatures are slowly warming through the 70s, yielding MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms have begun to form in this environment, but thus far have shown limited intensity. Forecast soundings show modest low-level flow and rather weak lapse rates. This suggests that updraft strength will remain generally limited. However, some potential exists for intensification by mid-afternoon as continued moist influx and daytime heating occurs. Locally damaging winds and hail are the main threats with the strongest cells. Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of watch issuance later this afternoon. ..Hart.. 09/13/2022

may see a waterspout turned TOR on Martha's Vineyard or Nantucket in the next few hours

It's mostly cloudy but there's been a lot of thinning and brightening going on over the past hour. Sun is shinning through now. Just taking time to erode the low-level clouds

I think guidance was predominately mostly cloudy but had some partly sunny during the afternoon. I guess if anything maybe we're clearing a bit more quickly. We'll see if it has any impact on temperatures. Days like today with such rich llvl moisture an extra degree or two on temperatures can give a decent boost to CAPE. Wouldn't be shocked if maybe we can pull off a 2000 MLCAPE contour

Should get some decent heating too today. Maybe a bit moreso than models indicated.

Pretty good agreement for upwards of 1500 J/KG of MLCAPE to develop today with ~150J of 3km CAPE. Effective shear 35-45 knots too which is perfect...certainly not weak and not overly strong. And this is my favorite...beautiful mlvl speed max rotating in

Looks to work out just as the thinking was a week ago. Should see multiple line segments or clusters develop this afternoon with damaging wind potential. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them produce a decent little path of wind damage. Looks like we destabilize quite well today with more than sufficient/strengthening shear.

I love when these threats sniffed out 7 days out continue to be on radar the potential day of

Well it's also more of the fact that there always seems to be hedge towards the extreme (above-average) and always some justification as to why...or anything that can point towards such an outcome. Even as little as a month or so ago revised forecasts were still calling for above-average activity. And this can go beyond tropical too.

Still looks good for a few strong storms tomorrow!!!

But did it really catch everyone off guard or was everyone forecasting high activity because it was another Nina so everyone assume it would be an above-average season b/c "it's supposed to be"? Even when the revised numbers came out indicating it would be less extreme, the thought was still above-average. Is it difficult for anyone to ever come out and admit initial thinking was incorrect instead of trying to justify an initial call? There was never...ever, at any point since Spring indicating conditions would become favorable.

We got a hotel just outside Salem. Going for the weekend. But thanks for the input regarding traffic!

I went a few summers ago but obviously COVID restrictions held things down. What was your experience during Halloween? (We're going the weekend of Oct 22)

My girlfriend and I are going to Salem that weekend. Celebrating our one-year a little late. Speaking of 40's though...I've debated going bac to drinking a 40 during Bruins games this year.

This is going to be the first Hartford Wolf Pack home opener I'm missing since 2006.

someone paid me enough

Been talking about this since last week!!!!!

Ahh I did some digging on the site https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/help/ and found this information. I think when choosing standardized anomaly you're getting the anomalies in standard deviation (I guess that should have been obvious). So In the examples I posted the one on the right is -3SD to +3SD. for some reason though I guess they don't show the unit of measurement in the legend anymore. In the example on the link they have °F and SD in the legend.

I should add…this wasn’t necessarily in reference to the ENSO work. I was working on something for work comparing summer of 2022 vs. 2021. I was looking at mean daily max, daily min, and mean avg temp along with anomalies. I’ve always used standardized anomalies in the past (for no other reason than it sounded cool lol) but for hahas wanted to see the difference between anomalies and standardized…and well that is a super large difference.

Ohh I see what you’re saying.

Temp is averaged daily temp (max + min / 2)

what are your thoughts regarding average anomaly vs. standardized anomaly.

That's a great point. I'm hoping to re-upload the GIFs in the original post sometime over the weekend.

Great idea classifying that way! while I didn’t include this in my initial notes or within any work I have taken similar notes as well regarding trends.