weatherwiz

or a different site

That strip from southern Connecticut through Rhode Island is a magnet for enhanced rainfall totals in these setups. Anytime you get a boundary to stall across that part of the state and have enhanced convergence then throw in nocturnal scenarios where you get additional enhancement from LLJ you can bet that corridor is going to overperform, especially when you're talking about SSTA's well above the average.

The Merritt is not something I would want to be traveling on today. I don't care if I had to detour and it added an extra hour on the commute

Anyone have Noah’s number on speed dial? May need an arc

Not sure why it has that split like that. It’s like a subsidence screw zone look. Considering 3km isn’t showing that…toss

Horrible drive fro new Britain to Springfield. Hydroplaned getting into the lane for 91N from 84E…scary. Drive up 91 was brutal…especially where there are no lights.

Drought lol

It was just a regular warning...no tornado emergency

Its a nice hook signature but I thought the rotation was relatively weak. I'm leaning towards not a TDS signature as it's a nit displaced from the rotation but the low CC's are also like right on the edge of the storm

Can’t tell if this is a weak TDS or not

Cranston seems to flood so easily. Must have a horrific drainage system

TOR warning on that cell

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

If anyone is interested in joining a NFL pick em league ($30 fee for the whole season) please check out the thread for more information. This used to be just open to American Weather, however, given lack of signups this has been expanded outside of the form to hopefully draw a bigger participation. If you are interested or even have any friends interested please pass the word along!

That is amazing! I've always wondered if something like this would ever be developed

Well here's a start. Will build more on this next week doing OLR anomalies by strength, structure (I'll be combining central/basin-wide), etc. This is for all La Nina's and using the ensemble ONI matric I'm also wondering with these composites if it would be even better to use a consistent legend.

Yes, this is a great point. Another year that was exceptionally borderline was '64-'65. Ultimately you would probably want to focus on the stronger type events and draw up composites that way and then when you have smaller events you can make a decision as to how much influence that weak event may really have. I suppose another thing to consider is when an event started/ended. There are a handful of Nina's that officially began during the fall months or even during the winter. Those may yield a different output than years when the event was already established.

One thing I want to add too is I was using two different datasets. I was using 20th Century Reanalysis V3 at first. This was because it covered data going back into the 1800's but it only goes to 2015. So when I did was use NCEP/NCAR R1 for years after 2015. However, when I did that I noticed some major discrepancies and this is a reported issue. For example, I think it was winter 2010-2011 which I believe was the winter with the big cold in the East (particularly into the mid-Atlantic region). The 20th century reanalysis did not reflect this. So I had to virtually start over and what I did was for years before 1981 I used 20th Century Reanalysis and after 1981 I used NCEP/NCAR as that's when that dataset began.

I only started with Nina given we're in a Nina state. I actually tried to start this project last year but I was really struggling with the climo period aspect because I didn't want to use 1981-2010 so I was going to go with 1951-2010 but I still wanted better. I'm hoping after this Nina breaks we'll get a few year period of ENSO neutral conditions...that way more work can be done with Nino composites and be ready for one

Gotcha...I see what you're saying and I share similar thoughts. But that is the big question...is the atmosphere behaving differently? My guess is that the atmosphere may behave a bit differently. Lets say the average water temperature within the ENSO region (3.4) was 27°C. So if you get 5-consecutive trimontly periods where that average is 26.3°C that's a pretty indicative La Nina episode. These colder waters are going to have some influence on convection, etc. Let's say now the average water temperature in the ENSO region is 28°C. So 5-consecutive trimonthly periods where the average is say 27.3°C would be a defined La Nina. So in theory, we have a La Nina given the anomalies with respect to the average, but these waters are still much warmer than they used to be and I would think this is going to yield a different atmospheric response than 26°C waters. So could there be a fair assumption (which would lead to the investigation) that weak La Nina's now may actually act more like how an ENSO neutral-warm or very weak EL Nino? Rays composites regarding the tropical forcing certainly do shed some light into these ideas. Next week I'm going to plot OLR anomalies and do it with the climo breakdowns I did for temperature anomalies. While I haven't done anything with EL Nino yet I may also chart some weak EL Nino's and make a comparison as well.