weatherwiz

I agree with this. I wouldn't feel comfortable forecasting temps outside of 3-4 days across our region during the spring time. First off MOS/NBM is total trash during the season and there are so many different influences which can impact temperatures (both positively and negatively). H5 could look amazing for warmth in the extended but the sfc could be dealing a different set of cards. Never underestimate backdoor potential or cloud debris.

We'll see what we can get over the next few hours. Certainly much tougher to clear out llvl crap now then it would be in another month or 6 weeks, but won't take much mixing to get temps to launch quickly

There could be a few potent systems clipping the PAC NW over the next few weeks.

Looks relatively "boring" across the country for the next few weeks. Maybe a decent snow event for parts of the northern Inter-mountain West late next week. Hopefully the pattern is just napping and will wake up just in time for May

Hope the overnight potential doesn’t pan out. The CAMS though have never really been gung-ho with convection today or tonight. Wasn’t until really this morning when the HRRR was a bit more impressive over central/eastern IA and western Illinois. Really good not a heck of a lot got going…what did develop has been quite nasty.

WWA's out

It's coming...people have been warned. Going to be too late for the folk who disregard

I'm thinking of doing it. For some reason my girlfriend's house gets HOT and I mean HOT. If I'm super hot and need AC you know there is an issue. We didn't get the AC put in until like early June last year and we were dying. With my back I wasn't able to bring it from the basement myself. Finally I couldn't take it anymore, I walked it across the basement floor, got it up each step, slide across the floor and my friend helped me get into the window. When I uninstalled I just left on the floor in front of the window. The issue is the bedroom...she has this MASSIVE uneconomically friendly AC that came from the original owners and weights like 100 pounds. I'm just going to have to buy one I can lift.

We hope and pray. Maybe a big severe wx event coinciding with game 2 of the Bruins series.

Monster hailer in IL

Where do you go to get FOUS data? One of my professors was a huge fan of it, used to use I think it was Texas A&M (which I did) but it like stopped working on there (this was several years back, maybe its good now). Anyways, I know its a bit extended, but playing around with some mixing levels on 6z GFS for bufkit Thursday and it won't take much to get on the + side of 70.

Yeah Thursday should be quite warm for sure. The main sfc low is tracking well off to the northwest and we lose the influences of the departing high so the flow throughout the column column is predominately SW unidirectional. Mixing should be pretty strong and with enough heating temps should soar. NAM/GFS bufkit look like lower 60's for BOS Thursday. NBM is 70. I would definitely hedge towards the NBM and maybe tack on another couple degrees.

I think I'd be shocked if BOS was in the 30's all day, but I guess it isn't totally outlandish to think they may pull upper 30's during the day. 12z NAM has some pretty impressive llvl cold at 925. It's certainly warmer above this, but if BOS struggles to mix...yikes.

Not too often you see the GFS on the uglier side of things

Lower Hudson Valley special coming right on up

hmmm I could have swore we broke 40 a few years back.

The record happened a few years ago...I think it was 41 or 42 (old record was 38 which I forget what year that was from...might have been sometime in the early 80's).

One that starts in May and doesn't end until early September.

Not bad out today just quite gusty. Can't wait for it to get like another 15F warmer...but ultimately, can't wait for it to get another 40F warmer.

Could see some showers and thunderstorms (NON-SEVERE) Thursday afternoon.

I don't think heating was the issue and the "humidity" is relative. I'm trying to go back to the SPC mesoanalysis archive to see regional obs yesterday but it's not working.

I don't think so because even moving into eastern NY the line didn't have any juice. Wondering if there was maybe some subsidence or maybe an enhanced area of dry air? I know when I was looking at this initially some days back some soundings within the region had a quite a bit of dry air (which of course was associated with the dry slot) with enhanced moisture convergence along the front.

I think the plume of steeper apse rates was north which may have helped with the better MUCAPE north. Maybe the southern batch robbed what moisture was available farther north? The models though were pretty consistent in nailing the areas that got nailed. I thought we would at least see something better across western MA and western CT. But overall, a pretty decent event down into NJ/DE.

Yeah isn’t that something. Pretty bizarre. Have to go back and re-assess everything. Pretty wild it just split and died into CT. Going to guess what helped northern sections was maybe being closer to the s/w forcing and down into NJ they had higher dewpoints.

Going to be getting some good lightning in Springfield but I’m not there BOOOOOOOOOOO