It certainly is hit and miss (which even be said with the HRRR at 12 hours) but it's really great for assessing consistency and trends. So let's say the 0z HRRR tonight is in line with the NAM and then each subsequent run remains consistent...even though other guidance is suggesting otherwise, seeing the HRRR be consistent I think would be a strong indicator. not sure how well this works with winter weather but the idea works great with convection.