weatherwiz

What a BEAUTIFULLLLLLLLLL day. Spent a few hours outside doing some outside cleanup including picking up months worth of dog poop. Then spent like 90 minutes cleaning dog poop off my shoes then went shopping. Today was much needed. Can't wait for this to become more consistent but with 70's and then eventually 80's and 90's with high humidity.

The evolution of everything for this upcoming week has been a shit show on guidance (and not talking just about our area).

May to them snow with visibility less than 1/8 of a mile is their typical snow showers

Close the shades. We've seen way too many times what happens when we have garbage airmasses ahead of impending "potential" storms. We couldn't get anything to evolve to work in our favor during peak climo...how the hell are we going to get it to work nearing mid-March...especially when the airmass out ahead of it is worlds milder. Obviously different story for the mountains up north where they get snow threats through April

I'll usually go outside and play with the dog for 10-15 minutes and whenever I'm out there now all winter dressed I just look at the trees and think to myself that in a few months I can be out here in shorts with everything all greened and blossomed. It's such a wonderful thought. I'm sick and tired of looking at bare trees.

March 1!!! Essentially just one more full month to go before we hit May. WOW

If a tree falls down in the forest and nobody is around to hear it, did it make a sound? Ask that animals that it splattered.

While there was clearly a geographic area which received better winds, the overall premise of the event worked out well. In these setups, the best winds ahead of the front, typically associated with a fine line of convection, always happen: 1) Right along the leading edge of the heavier rain. 2) The highest wind gusts are very brief. 3) There is a lull, sometimes even dead calm, just behind the area of strongest winds under the heaviest rain (thermodynamic profile likely becomes inverted with the downward transport of colder air which becomes saturated and the lapse rates becomes very weak). Based on some of the reports here, this was verified and was discussed several times as how it would play out. Certainly the overall thought would be much more of a region wide event but that did not pan out. Something like this can often come down to the mesosnalysis scale where you have to watch how things are progressing and evolving. In terms of the CAA winds, it seemed like that was even more impressive farther north as opposed to the region as a whole.

I find these situations awesome where you can see some of the taller trees swaying pretty good at the top but at ground level not much going on. This goes to show how even a weak inversion, no matter where it is located can really dent the winds a bit.

That is pretty impressive. Don't see that around here too often. I think the best FROPA I've ever been in was when I was at the AMS in Austin in 2018. Temperatures went from mid 70's I think into the 20's. Came with a massive gust of wind. The colder air hit like pins and needles.

It was fun watching 850 temps on mesoanalysis throughout the day. This was some front.

Yup this went as expected. Not sure what others were expecting but this went well.

The Big Bad Wolf is doing the Hoedown Blowdown

Some decent winds on velocities on the leading edge of the line not very far up off the ground.

I would guess we start cranking down some higher and more frequent gusts in the next few hours. should see strengthening 925mb winds over this time frame.

By the time I finished work it started clouding up and cooling off. But yeah I wish I did.

Starting to gust a bit more here too.

I'm kind of hoping a brief EF-0 tornado touches down in my backyard within the line and sucks up all the dog poop and takes it to the nearby woods. It's like walking through a landmine. Need warm weather so I can clean it.

The CAA winds tonight are going to crank. 6z bufkit still showing 50-60 mph across many stations.

2-6km lapse rates are pretty steep across the region and ahead of the front. That is a good proxy for mixing down wind. NY/PA could get hit pretty good with convective wind gusts. Forecast models showing upwards of 500 J of SBCAPE and even upwards of 250 J of MLCAPE under steep lapse rates. Unfortunately, we lose the instability here but lapse rates remain steep. We should easily see widespread 40-50 mph gusts later on with some pockets of 55-65 mph...though obviously difficult to verify if that doesn't happen at any stations.

oof that is a pretty wild thermodynamic environment across northern Illinois and Indiana. Couple this with the increasing shear. They better hope they don't get any discrete cells.

3km NAM has a LES streamer all the way through Connecticut Thursday

HRRR shows this well

have some HWW from Berkshire/Hamden/Hampshire/Franklin

This is!