weatherwiz

Agreed, just replied the NAM might be a bit out to lunch I think. Don't really see support for it's scenario. We'll see showers for sure but don't think we'll see widespread heavy rain.

The NAM also looks like it is on its own island (with the HRRR). It's the most aggressive with closing off through H5 and north with the lows while Euro/GFS aren't as aggressive and south overall. The differences between the NAM/rest of guidance leads me to think NAM is out to lunch.

But who the hell knows. disastrous model consensus for tomorrow. Thank God this isn't a winter event.

Looks like at least southern sections get grazed with some heavy rain tomorrow night.

This is going to sound stupid but it's an observation. Every May and June I like to just go to the GFS MLCAPE and run it through 384-HR and see if it has any big CAPE into our region. The last few years would be super frustrating in that all big CAPE would get shunted south and east from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic. One big difference I see between now and the last few years is no low pressure signal northeast of Maine which shunted all the good south. I'm going to take that as a positive and hope it means that late May or early June we can get some good severe threats.

This site may have what you're looking for. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=76 I wish it was easier to flip through all the charts.

not this again

The only lights I'm worried about tonight and want to see tonight is the red light going off behind the net where the Bruins shoot twice tonight.

It’s Spring in New England. We’ve had some nice days, we’ve had some fantastic days, we’ve had some awful days, and we’ve had some shit days.

May head north and meet a friend in southwest NH later this evening if things look good and clouds aren’t an issue.

was just coming in to ask the same question

Between East Hampton and Holyoke rest stop on 95

awww damn...I would have enjoyed it much better had I known.

It's possible I saw something. There was some "shadowing" towards the bottom right of the Sun. Not sure what it would look like viewing through eclipse glasses since I've never done it. Clouds totally rolled in now so no shot to look again.

I don't see any sunspots on the Sun. I think its a hoax

@Ginx snewx Do you have any recommendations on dog exercises to strengthen their lower back? Back in December, I was outside playing with the dog and he was chasing the ball. All of a sudden he let out a series of yelps and tumbled over. My initial thought was he re-injured his leg because he was favoring his leg. Before my gf and I met, he had injured himself jumping the fence and a few months after dating he had to get ACL surgery I think on his back right leg and this time it was his back left leg. We were nervous because they told us there is a good chance he will injure the other one at some point. Anyways, we got him into an emergency vet and after doing some tests and checking him out, they realized he may have actually done something to his lower back (when they did some light pressing on his spine he reacted towards his lower spine and when they did a paw flip thing, he didn't really react when they put his back left paw backwards...it just kind of flopped). They told us they believe he could have had a minor stroke in his back but didn't think there was anything serious. I was nervous about something more serious so shelled out $3,500 for an MRI, which thankfully showed nothing serious. They expected him to fully recover. Anyways, probably within a few weeks we were back to playing. I think it was last Friday or Friday before, he seemed to be in some pain which was the first time since the injury. You can tell though its still on the weak side. Do you know of anything we can try to maybe strengthen the lower back?

damn it I couldn't see anything

Really? I might go do that right now

Was not expecting this much Sun. Pretty nice out right now anyways.

Funny you post this because I did dap into the charts to see what the forecasts were for the NAO/PNA. I thought that was noteworthy, but like you said ens means were not as representative as what you would expect to see in terms of pattern across the country. One thing came to mind: As you know, the placement and structure of the anomaly centers are more important than just the chart. Here is the 12z GEFS 6-10 day mean. Excuse my terrible drawing skills but I'll try to explain what I'm getting at: 1. I wonder if the chart is being skewed by the highly anomalous High pressure center northwest of the Aleutians and the trough jut north of Hawaii. I believe this is the far western edge of the PNA domain but this could be providing enough weight to make the chart "quite negative". 2. Getting into the placement of the anomaly centers, you can see we might not be far off from significantly warmer temperatures. If the high center was more so over the Aleutians or maybe just south and the trough centered over Hawaii, would that maybe act to flatten the ridge there across the PAC NW and open the door to connect the trough over the central states with the western Arctic domain or at least tug the trough west? With the mean trough in the West as opposed to the central we may be able connect the ridge off the coast and bring that west

That's what I'm thinking. We're going to get our nice days, and some of us will get more than others and that's just the nature of our region's climo but I think we have at least another few weeks before we can say that type of weather becomes more consistent. I would not be surprised if the switch flipped in the flash of an eye. I mean that's what kinda of seems to happen here anyways but we'll probably go from 50's and 60's (with our days of 70's) right to 80's and torch spots hitting 90 with humidity.

perhaps end of May sure...but I was focused on the next few weeks really.

As much as I am dying to get into a weather pattern where we get consistent warmth I think we have quite a bit to go until we get there. We've been in such a shit pattern and its just slowly eroding away, however, its just rotting so we'll left with its dead corpse. There is nothing really driving a change.

Yup...we had a little back and forth going about the warm front and how far into the region it would push. I wish I spent more time looking into it but had alot of other stuff going on. Everything looked pretty impressive but I just harped too much on drier air aloft. But looking back I should have known that would be a non issue given the strength of the forcing approaching and increasing 850 theta e I think it was. it's not too often either we get supercellular storms riding along warm front boundaries in these parts. Even with some of the stableness around, I believe much of the storm inflow was coming from within the stronger warm sector.

Let's hope we can keep the EML's coming.