weatherwiz

ummm did two tornadoes just conjoin in southwest Iowa

that environment is insane. 70 knots of bulk shear, ~400 m2s2 of effective helicity, 2000+ MLCAPE with CIN eroding quickly, and increasing sfc vorticity. storm mode...looks like we have a QLCS of supercells. Southern flank of this will be ripe for strong TORs. DSM and points north and east in some trouble.

Hoping so. I hope we keep some troughing around in Canada, particularly southeast Canada so we can keep the jet stream unseasonably strong. It's been interesting to note though (I believe Tip alluded to this several times) the guidance long-range tendency to be very trough like in the east and showing little heat - only for this signal to quickly fade around the D5-7 time frame. I'd like to see the heat dome over Mexico/west Texas build a bit poleward with an east-shifted axis.

It certainly has been quite the stretch. There's already been a handful of PDS Tornado Watches this year. I'm sure there are stats out there somewhere but I would not be surprised if we're ahead of some pace for PDS Watches...hell, probably even tornado emergencies.

not as good as this monster in Iowa Nebraska EDITED: Storm still in Nebraska

PDS Watch being considered in Iowa...wont be that much longer until we're in on the fun

too bad you can't load more than one product at once. It's brutal how slow it can be to populate or whatever on nws

This is what I DON'T WANT TO SEE. This is what kills getting EMLs up this way. UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Some good support for a hot day tomorrow

And now there is no looking back until November

Actually much of Kansas looks like nada.

Thursday looks decent for convection along/ahead of the front at least. Certainly would be room for some locally strong-to-severe thunderstorms.

It's just basically waiting for some severe wx setups at this point. Hopefully we get active in 2 weeks

Windsor Locks too (though might be considered Windsor).

Have to look online, but I wonder what ERSST vs maps would show (though I'm not sure how up-to-date that data is available for). IIRC, that version has one of the best resolutions.

This 2 days of nice weather and two days of crap stuff has gotten annoying. Hopefully next week we turn the page. Not totally dry though...want one to two FROPAs a week with convective chances.

I am not so sure on the AI aspect. Do I think AI has value and will provide great value moving forward? I believe this, however, I think AI is leading to more harm than good in the forecasting business right now and I think that ultimately, AI is going to be the downfall society. Everyone is so fixated in wanting computer and robots to basically operate our lives that eventually nobody is going to know how to do anything - there will be no such thing as having fundamental skills anymore. With this google AI modeling crap, the article that was floating around on that, it essentially stated the model had zero clue how it was deriving it's output. Too make it simple, it knows 10 x 10 = 100, but it doesn't know why that is. The only great part of that model (IMO) was the fact that it processed data substantially faster, however, it did not use physics or calculus (if I understood correctly). The premise of AI from my gathering anyways is it just finds patterns and understands patterns and goes from there. But at least with weather, pattern recognition is only a very small piece of the puzzle - too small to make definitive calculations and "forecasts" just because some robotic, computer mind, ciphered through 500,000 different patterns and "recognized" one as a match.

I'm trying to remember back a few days ago, but the GFS may have been onto the idea, just not as aggressive as the NAM. IIRC, the NAM was the more aggressive with the development of llvl circulations and were further north with them. The GFS was a bit weaker and south (which I think was similar to the Euro). You have to wonder if even 15-20 years ago would an event have performed as such, with the atmosphere holding so much more moisture now and all...these type of setups may be bound to produce more rain. We're looking at PWAT anomalies which are like +1.5SD right now.

Agreed, that's why I wasn't so high on this a few days ago. It was difficult to find overwhelming support with the NAM sort of alone. I suppose you could throw the long-range HRRR in there but I don't really count that since there aren't many products available on the HRRR to provide enough insight.

Just got the living room A/C installed since a friend came up. Have to buy a new unit for the bedroom though

Nice little zone of fronto on the NAM with decent inflow. 3km has some pretty hefty 12-hr totals

Off to a fairly active start this year (seems like it anyways). See if we can continue that for another month or so before the Plains season typically begins to level down a bit.

You can tell there is definitely some sort of potential pattern change towards the end of the month. Doesn't necessarily mean there will be a direct impact or correlation to our region, but there is an upward/increasing trend to at least start building heat into the southern states. I loved how in your earlier posts you outlined 850 temperatures. Often times, we focus too much on the H5 look and (focusing on summer months here) and we presume that no major ridge in the East signal means no heat - that isn't true. I feel like many of our bigger heat patterns (especially the more active ones with convection) occur when we have a strong ridge in the lower-levels with less ridging in the mid-levels and more of a trough signal. This helps to transport the airmass from the Southwest or southern Plains into our region and increases the likelihood of this airmass keeping it's integrity - and we see this by advection of EML plumes.

Just need this to become consistent

Another fantastic days. At least down this way, the nice days have been stellar but the awful days have been totally crap. Doesn't seem like we've had many in the middle days.