weatherwiz

ughhhh next Wednesday would offer some severe potential but we're lacking one thing... Forcing

One giant step. Now the 384 HR EML watch begins

Certainly some challenging temperature forecasts the past few days but it's not like the llvl airmass was particularly cool. Any breaks of Sun or event a small period of stronger heating mixing will occur quickly and temperatures will sky rocket. Under the thicker clouds and overcast you screwed.

so close

Clouds finally cleared out in Springfield. Perfect timing...have to clean up dog poop later.

probably be dropping albums

"Developing by D10" well at least AI seems to have learned the bogus D10 crap that never verifies

Holy shit wtf

Nice cell in northeast PA. Nice call by me yesterday for some transient supercells out there today

I'll trade you my 60's for your thunderstorms

yeah great point. I guess you just can't win

Look on the bright side...10F colder and you could be getting thunder snow.

Tomorrow is May, I should have posted that in the May thread

Will be interesting temperature wise tomorrow. Essentially, any areas which break into Sun tomorrow will really shoot up. Won't take much

Outside of some meteorological setups (CAD for example), the NAM is pure trash when it comes to temperatures...not just here but across the country.

Get this crap out now and lets full steam summer by mid-May.

LESS THAN A DAY LEFT IN THE PERIOD!!!!

I bet your first 70+ day will be a high in the 80's.

yeah the next few days are looking ugly. Hopefully we can those days out of the day now and don't have to deal with this at all moving through May but I don't think we'll get so lucky. We'll have some crap days to deal with.

Maybe a few transient supercells across southern NY and northern PA tomorrow afternoon.

Getting hosed with cloud cover in Springfield

Great point. This is going to get OT but I don't care. I was thinking alot about patterns, mostly when it comes to the AI crap. Obviously, understanding weather patterns is a very important part of weather forecasting, whether it be short-term, medium-range, or long-range. However, I think there is a big misconception within the field that there is a strong correlation between weather patterns and what results. For example, major severe weather outbreaks in the Great Plains typically have a deep trough digging into the West with ridging building across the East. However, not every trough digging into the West is going to produce a major severe weather outbreak. During the winter, not every ridge in the West/trough in the East is going to produce above-average snowfall here. But AI focuses on this...all about "identifying patterns" and then saving time because instead of calculating complex equations, a solution is just based on a slew of "historical patterns". BADDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD Understanding the pattern and it's relevance is one thing, however, IMO what's more important is how the pieces are moving and evolving within the pattern which may not be directly related to the pattern at all.

It would be nice if we could get a bit of a stretch with ENSO neutral conditions. It's been over decade with a persistent ENSO neutral look (at least based on ONI). I know we don't tend to stay in ENSO neutral for more than a few years at a time but it seems we're either going from one extreme to the next.

Very close to the general thunderstorm line the next few days and was in it yesterday. A step in the right direction.