weatherwiz
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I know they had some WWA in southern Indiana that ended up being dropped. -
I'm not even sure what I want to see from the 18z NAM. I'm wondering if its just better off to have it join the Euro/Ukie and other 1z guidance versus holding steady. If the NAM holds serve...and lets say the GFS does too then WTF. It's probably doubtful that happens though.
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Is it really farther south though or just slower?
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was just thinking that too. Holding firm though until the 18z NAM.
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If the 18z NAM doesn't even make a tickle towards the Euro I'm not going to buy the Euro much. If that ends up biting me in the fanny, well I'll enjoy the nibble. If the 18z NAM though does make any strides towards the Euro my level of concern will do a 180 real quickly.
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The only tossing I want to be seeing right now is long tossing between Red Sox pitchers and catchers when they report.
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It can't be discounted, I mean we've been screwed before in these scenarios. I wonder if there is literature out there on these situations. Someone's had to do extensive research into this. Would be great to have an understanding of when this situation does occur versus when it doesn't. Maybe there is no clear cut signal, models still really struggle with resolving convection, especially in these highly dynamic situations.
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I wish weathermodels had more products available but you can clearly see where the problem resides (where it places the low). It definitely seems to be favoring more towards the convection. Its an elongated low which is in the process of cyclogenesis. Additional upper-level tools would provide some additional guidance as to where you could expect to see the sfc low. Regardless, where it tracks the low from this, based on the H7 low track heavy banding would be much farther nw than the Euro has.
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It seems to me like its chasing convection. H7 looks good. Yes, I'm aware we don't live at H7.
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The wind will be a factor as well. Not necessarily from a strength standpoint, but winds will be enough to sway branches/limbs, which, with added weight probably makes them more susceptible to coming down.
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Yeah I'm pretty impressed with many of the soundings across the state. It's been a while since we seen something like this. Much of the state is going to get into this banding. I suppose it is possible ratios hold back the higher extent of totals, but I am really becoming worried about power issues, especially south and east of 84. That's alot of weight being added to trees/wires quickly. Maybe snow will have trouble sticking to power wires.
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GFS/NAM bufkit are an absolute crushing for PVD. Thinking the heaviest banding is going to be NW of here so that bodes extremely well for BOS-ORH-Kevin-HFD like Will mentioned earlier.
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GFS just as beautiful as the NAM at BDL. One thing that is interesting too is it seems like the speed has slowed down a bit...or maybe there is some pivot potential but I think it's time to up the totals
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Agreed, I think the HREF has a tendency to be way overblown sometimes but I think it has great merit and support in this situation.
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If I get a chance to make any adjustments to my map later on I'll probably move my 10-14'' area slightly south and east and might even increase it a bit. I can see you getting between 15-18''.
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12z NAM bufkit for BDL. Confidence certainly increasing we're going to see 2'' per hour rates and maybe even upwards of 2.5''. Can't ask for a better signature than this.
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GFS looks damn good. Interesting with H7 though...doesn't seem to develop a closed off circulation until its well east. But that 850 low track is damn perfect for that corridor of HFD to BOS
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I'd be curious if something exists as well. I'm sure something has too. This is where I wish I knew Python and had the brain for that stuff. All you need is to gather data and then you can create anything you want.
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I think BDL is like 15'' below the seasonal average for snowfall. That deficit could be eliminated.
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That's exactly how I feel. When they first became a thing they were fun to look at and interpret them but I seriously think they are a detriment to the field. When I was at school and there were winter storm threats the first thing most everyone did when the models came out were go right to the snow maps. It's really sad. At least for me, part of the storm enjoyment is the hardcore analysis and assessment.
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This is so much more visually appealing and stimulating than a snow map I'm thinking of calling a congrats Kevin on this one.
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Temps will be more of a concern along eastern coastline like Will said, maybe even along coastal CT but ultimately temperatures are going to be tied into precipitation and rates as well. If we're getting crushed with banding or heavy precip its going to be snow. But I think there needs to be a bit more thought about power outage potential.
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7z NBM has BDL right around 33 for much of the storm and BOS mid 30's during the pre-dawn and then like 34-35 for the storm.
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yeah just looked at that lots of 33-34
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HRRR looks like a crusher from BOS to HFD to DXR
