weatherwiz

Yup. One of these days those interesting members will be noteworthy but not with this one.

maybe we can blame the shitty Red Sox pitching on the solar max

I have no divulged too deep into the tropics but wasn't much of the forcing across the IO/WPAC? It's pretty wild that both the EPAC/ATL have both been super quiet. You would expect that to be more of the case in the EPAC with the developing Nina but to have BOTH basins quiet seems weird. Only recently didn't we get some forcing across the EPAC and we saw several systems brew up.

I know there have been and are some ensembles members looking "interesting" but this system never had a shot at sniffing the east coast. Just because a D11 model run shows a scenario of a storm moving up or into the coast does not mean it's a possible solution. The upper air pattern was never there for this. These troughs are a bit too progressive and the trough axis develop just a bit too far east.

Yup unfortunately the back is broken and we’re on the decline. Thankfully at least there is football, hockey, and basketball to look forward too.

It’s been super gusty here out ahead of it but about to roll here now. Guessing best winds probably out ahead of it

Only saw one warning so far

@Typhoon Tip’s Bahamas blues

lightning strikes with the line in southeastern NY.

Don't see values like these too often here That's some beefy 3km CAPE. Again though, need a mature enough updraft to be able to utilize this

Everyone needs to clam down

ehhh can't really speculate as to what category at this juncture. Once you're starting to talk about the potential for a major hurricane there is the storm evolution processes which now get factored in and can play a significant influence on overall strength. I don't even feel comfortable saying "major hurricane" potential at this state, however, given what should be very favorable environmental conditions, it won't take much or long for this to really develop.

I could see this becoming a major hurricane. Might be something that gets its act going quickly once passing Puerto Rico and that area.

I can see some patches of Tips Bahama blues. And with some breaks of Sun it got very gusty all of a sudden

Would explain why mesos aren't very bullish in the open warm sector. Sometimes you see the HRRR go wild in these but for it not to be doing much may be telling.

meh not even worth worrying about potential track until a defined center actually forms and the models have something to go off besides a naked swirl with disorganized convection. While this has a decent shot of becoming a strong hurricane, where the center actually forms and how quickly it intensifies are going to influence latitude gains...check those boxes off then start worrying about track.

RAP mesoanalysis still indicating >100-125 J of 3km CAPE by early afternoon with 0-1km helicity >200 m2s2. Pretty noteworthy stuff. Just have to see if we can get any mature, sustained updrafts going.

They can pop up at about any time. Quick hitting, but torrential downpours.

Whatever happens with the eventual track, conditions look ripe for this one to get pretty strong.

ughh that's sad

ehhh even with the farther west track it probably wasn't a bad idea to cancel. The weather still won't be great. It will be pretty breezy out and with the wet ground there will be the risk for some downed trees.

Actually NAM may hang the front up a bit east of the CTRV

Yeah overall the rain doesn't seem to be a big story here. We'll see some typical poor drainage flooding as the axis of heavier rain moves through but there is even a possibility that starts to falter. Almost looks like the cold front starts racing eastwards and becomes a bit removed from the better ulvl dynamics. Have to see how many breaks of sun we can muster in the morning but I suspect we are going to see lots of showers popping up but it won't take much for them to do much if they can get semi-decent cores.

We should see a slight for 5% TOR I would think (maybe with 1730 update). If CAMS start spitting out some more aggressive convection ahead of the main line we may see enhanced risk for 10%. Dews 75+ with this shear is eye opening.