weatherwiz

I was just about to go out and measure but that is what about I was eyeballing.

Exactly. This is why I get so bent out of shape with the snow maps. They're just leading to lazy forecasting. Ultimately, forecasting is a science which requires a great deal of time and effort. Now, I get in today's day and age where everyone is so busy and has so many responsibilities that it's difficult to put that effort in, but we're only hurting ourselves that way. Fundamentals are important. Take sports for example, you can have the most talent team, best players, but if you can't execute the fundamentals, you aren't winning in the end. When forecasting, the fundamentals should be applied first and always. If one is going to look at snow maps or QPF and see there is a cut-down, the questions needs to be asked as to why that is and whether it makes sense. When looking back at how all guidance was handling the mid-levels, the evolution of the mid-levels, jet enhancement, the QPF cuts should not have made sense. I guess though hindsight is 20-20...its always easier said than done in the end, but you can't ignore the fundamentals and forget why fundamentals are important.

This storm deserves one helluva case study. Ultimately though, this storm is a prime clear-cut example of why snow maps are garbage but why analyzing "trends" in the snow maps is pure garbage. When it comes to modeled QPF, I feel like models have improved on this significantly over the past 10-15 years but this was probably a case too where analyzing QPF trends was probably not a great idea. Despite what the Euro was doing, the mid-level presentation argued for a crushing along and south/east of I84. I think dendrite mentioned it earlier, but models can often struggle with QPF under the banding signal. I honestly think all the clues were still there for a crushing. Even with the lower QPF, forecast soundings were still showing great lift into the DGZ. Saturation was not an issue so naturally lift into the DGZ was going to produce snow. I believe we are also in the entrance region of the ULJ.

I guess the 15-18'' I mentioned you could get may work out after all

Must be sucking subsidence here or something. crappy snowgrowth and tiny flakes.

Just measured 2''...may even be a bit more

Very good snowgrowth here. Coming down decently too. Might go our for a measurement at 9

Well said, it is situations like this which really drive me to love the weather event more and want to learn. As mentally exhausting as it can be sometimes, the only way to further understand and learn is to understand these situations. I think these situation also tell us how difficult communication can be to the public, especially communicating uncertainty.

I feel like an idiot Screamed bust on fb for my snowfall forecast for Connecticut and some friends are sending me pics, "what bust" What a 24 hours. I may need a 40 for the Bruins game tonight. I'm hoping I can at least pull off 3'' here.

Maybe 1/2'' here in Springfield or so. Coming down nicely. Looking at radar this AM I am just stunned. These past 24 hours have me speechless.

finally got around to making an updated forecast

The gun shell casings scattered around Bridgeport probably screw up the plows.

That sounds about right. Yup...those were good times. My mom used to listen to the radio in the morning so I would lay in bed and listen to the them go down the list. It used to piss me off so much because Hartford used to close constantly and West Hartford wouldn't. Granted though...back then West Hartford did a helluva job cleaning roads. Hartford sucked. You would tell what streets separated Hartford from West Hartford because you would go from perfectly clear road to can't see pavement in the span of 5 feet

Yup. I grew up in West Hartford and went to school in the 90's and 2000's. 1. West Hartford hardly ever cancelled...I mean ever. Hell, it was a blessing if we either had a delay or an early dismissal. 2. There is only one time I distinctly remember it happening. I was in middle school (so sometime between 1999-2002) and we had two days cancelled in a row. Its funny because it was supposed to be a very large storm (I think a two part) and it kind of busted. I think in total we got around 8'' or something...maybe it was 10.

maybe we can just radiate tonight and get a heavy frost and it will look like it snowed.

That amounts to about $5 per daily post

I'm just going to constantly slam F5 on my keyboard when the NAM is rolling out in hopes NCEP will ban my IP address and I can never look at models again

It's not loading for me. I've even refreshed several times

I really have to get weatherbell. weathermodels sucks. still waiting for the 18z euro to roll out

18z euro about to roll out soon, right? Going to set the toaster oven up next to the bathtub and fill it with just enough water to cover my scrawny little body

Yeah when I looked at that I got a bit excited. I just have no clue what to think. This jump south today is mind boggling. If we see a jump back north on 0z guidance I may just quit. There is clearly something the models are really struggling to resolve. Just going to have to nowcast the next several hours.

Those are my thoughts exactly. Definite a shift on the 18z GFS but man with how H7 evolves you would expect heavier precip farther north and west

My guess it's just moreso the initialization of the features and how they're evolving in real time. Just going through quickly but between some guidance and today, the differences between the evolution of the northern/southern streams don't seem too significant but certainly enough to result in larger differences at the surface.

Well I guess there is some solace in that the 20z HRRR doesn't look any worse than 18z. This should still be solid across much of Connecticut though the max totals probably have to be dropped.

Well time to just start preparing for May and severe season. At least we don't see these epic model fails happen leading up to severe events. Awful