weatherwiz

Ehhh the signals were there for a lot of rain. Mentioned that Friday but everyone was too busy worried about a fake tropical threat and the colors of 8-14D WPC maps

I disagree with this to an extent. A huge part of meteorology and forecasting is having a tremendous understanding of climatology, patterns, and how pattern evolutions can influence short-term sensible weather. The best forecasters out there can typically have a solid understanding on how storm potential may evolve several days out or at least some expectation and these forecasters, if working within the private sector, can make some damn good money with this skill. There are people who dedicate their life and career to this sort of thing. The best forecasters can also assess forecast model data and each model and develop a sound idea of which forecast model is probably going to be the best at handling the situation. While not directly used in the field unless you're into heavy research or modeling, even having an understanding of mathematics (physics/calculus) and the governing equations can provide you clues and guidance in this regard. There are jobs within the private sector which almost require providing some "guarantee" or "most likely" scenario for such storms even as far as 5-6-7 days out. Many companies are understanding the need of weather and how it impacts their business and with this the private sector is growing substantially. Many places are realizing how planning around/ahead weather can save them enormous amounts of money. So let's say in the case of Ernesto, and you're either in the Northeast or someone who does business within the Northeast, and you hear of a possible hit 5-6-7 days out...you're doing to want/have to start planning on that potential this far out and you are going to want to know what this probability is so you can make your preparations. When it comes to tropical weather and hurricanes, we can easily know the likelihood of a potential system hitting our region as far as 7-10 days out. There is a very specific upper-level pattern that is needed to happen, this is why it is very difficult to get landfalling canes here.

Why can't I ever see anything like that???? Freaking ridiculous. I take a couple weeks during the summer and go around for storms and see shit but people get videos and pictures of funnel clouds, wall clouds, tornadoes, FROM PARKING LOTS OF STORES, FARMS, THEIR HOUSES, SIDE OF HIGHWAYS. Its b**********

I'm so pissed. Initial cells around here developed virtually overhead and strengthened as it tracked south (at least I had good thunder). The second round missed me by like 5 miles to the west as the storms dropped south and ended up producing all that hail in Enfield.

Could be some good rainfall totals in spots between Sunday and Monday.

DUMB

Its sliding JUST west

decent core headed towards me

Shocked there isn't a Special Weather Statement on that cell headed towards Kevin.

good thunder with the cell to my south headed into CT

yeah I was just outside with the dog and every now and then there is a whiff of a smoky smell.

yeah would not be surprised to see some hailers out there today. Wouldn't be surprised to see some transient supercells either towards the east, closer to the sea-breeze boundary.

I knew we would see a marginal today

Thought we would see a marginal risk at 1730z but I guess we'll have to wait until 6z tonight

yup...though I wonder if today is more high terrain.

Could see some small hailers and gusty winds tomorrow

maybe we can sneak in some EML's during the second half of the month.

Don’t they have the strongest/best building codes in the world?

eh it seems on track to me with the progression and strengthening. There have been some decent sustained winds and gusts measured thus far. Once the forward speed slows a bit this evening it should get a much more organized structure. This could get to hurricane status just as it is passing northeast of Puerto Rico.

It's getting its act together though. Seems on par on terms of development or organization, in fact may even be slightly ahead of forecasts.

I get what you're saying, makes sense. I guess with this, what we also need to throw out there is perspective and quantification. There are many different ways I guess we can quantify the season thus far. 1) The number of named storms has been a bit underwhelming comparted to history, especially during a period which was thought to be very favorable for the ATL (low shear, developing Nina). 2) Of the few storms, we had the absolute monster in Beryl - but how much does this skew things so far or is this a sign of what we could be looking at one/if activity ramps up? 3) You're point there in the bolded is something which I think all of us weather enthusiasts like to debate. We talk about this alot in the winter. What makes a winter memorable, is it one massive 2'+ blizzard or is it a bunch of 3-6'' events which add up?

Couldn't agree more.

I agree. Obviously we could get into September and all hell breaks loose, however, it just boggles my mind how so many people out there (professionals, amateurs) focus on one or two aspects and just go haywire with forecasts. You see it with every type of weather event and within seasonal forecasts. Severe - some will go absolutely wild because of hodographs winter - the 10:1/Kuchie maps...it's too early in the season to get me started on this crap. tropical - warm waters!!!!!!!!!!! winter seasonal - weak la nina...1995-1996 redux. But hype rules all I guess

Gonzalo as in this on is gonzo

It is definitely screwing with the model, however, in a negative way. Unless something wild were to happen, I can't see that vort being where the center develops or becoming the dominant feature. Those far western outliers should be removed really. Based on the trough progression, combined with where the ATL high is, this thing is going to re-curve sharply. However, there certainly is some room for maybe eastern Atlantic Canada to get some impact. Deviations in storm speed could increase or decrease the chance the trough capturing it and tugging it a bit back northwest.