weatherwiz

Within our region, I don't think anyone sees any snow outside of the Greens and maybe parts of the Berkshires. This is where the most intense lifting would likely be. But I wouldn't be surprised if some flakes/graupel on Friday...in fact I bet many see at least some sort of frozen precip mixture.

Maybe not bad after all for the Greens Thursday night into Friday morning

Wow didn't realize how similar the NAM/Euro are in terms of how the entire system evolves...does the old NAM/Euro rule still exist Alot will probably depend on how quickly and where occlusion occurs. GFS is much quicker in this regard.

NAM solution is probably best solution to give a widespread soaking rain for several hours. That's some pretty intense frontogenesis and WAA and convective precip...that's what we want. GFS makes me a little nervous about heavy rain on a widespread or larger scale.

WSW out for the higher terrain in eastern West Virginia

Gotcha. This is precisely why timing is just as, if not, more important when dealing with the "sensible" weather and when it comes to the states of PNA, EPO, NAO, AO, etc. its their trend over a 5-7D period which is more important than just want the index looks to become or average out to. I wish there was an easy way to do this and apply to historical events and for research purposes. I still would one love love to be able to take the daily index levels of the various indices and compute a weekly/bi-weekly rolling average. But I think this is extremely complex. I don't think its as simple as just taking the daily values and simply dividing by 7 or 14. A program could do this extremely easily, just have to come up with the proper equation.

We need to get these to dump into the upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley region. I don't know the climatology with Arctic outbreaks, however, I would imagine they're more than likely to spill into the center U.S. (east of the Rockies) than they are into the upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley. Anyways, these things keep spilling into the Great Plains we just just end up on the warm end of systems and get the cold on the backside of systems as they pull out. Maybe we need them to spill deep into the southern Plains because that would focus cyclogenesis way south and increase the potential for off-shore tracks for us?

Hell, I would even sell it for anywhere outside of the clouds where snowflakes would be produced.

For here, I think I would rather just roll the dice with a below-average precip winter. I forgot who mentioned this but it seems like lately when we get above-average precip winters, it comes with warmer storms and we get more rain. There used to be a time when if we got above-average precip in the winter...it meant we got slammed with snow. Maybe below-average precip would mean a colder pattern and what storms we get actually produce...snow.

Does the algorithm for snow maps just check to see if there is any part of a layer (even if its like 5 feet) that is like below 32 (or hell even below 40 because that's how ridiculous their outputs are), then just multiple total QPF by 10:1 and say, "yup this much snow is falling"?

If you're hoping for a decent drink Wednesday night things continue to not look so great, IMO. The system becomes occluded Wednesday evening on the GFS well to our west. The better chance for some heavier rain is probably like PA/SE NY/NJ into SW CT right along maybe a triple point? As for any snow...yeah not happening, probably anywhere except the highest terrain. Even if a secondary pops it will be weak and certainly not anywhere close to enough dynamic cooling to do anything with. Someone above 1500 or 2000 feet will probably squeak out an inch or two but other than that nobody is seeing anything

Should see some lower 60's around tomorrow but yeah could be our last 60's for a bit...probably Christmas like you said

Sat outside for a few hour earlier, just a sunning day. A little breezy at times but manageable.

and a closing off H5 low over Michigan with an occluding system, sfc temps barely in the mid 30s [in the high terrain], with 925 temperatures around -0C is going to produce that?

when?

1000%

This is the 500mb level and is displaying absolute vorticity and the height, in meters, the 500mb level can be found at

Getting a bit excited for Thursday. Wouldn't be surprised to see a marginal risk with the D3 which comes out overnight Monday as long as things hold pat.

Umm how about both

Actually probably not, the Sun will be on the other side of the house and it will get chilly shaded over. Damn you cold

Might watch the Bruins game outside today

The upper evolution is interesting, that's for sure. I just question whether we have enough to yield a widespread synoptic rain. There undoubtedly would be a great deal of upward vertical motion but we may be lacking one key ingredient...and that's moisture to really lift. The greatest combo of lift/moisture would be on the leading edge of the dry slot with the cold front where you have also a narrow wedge of instability. We'll see what happens though, I would not be shocked if we see an entirely different presentation come Sunday.

end of week?

One thing I really hate seeing is we've seen a constant barrage of systems closing off and occluding across the Ohio Valley region...this has been a transition season theme for the better part of the last few years (more like 3-4). It doesn't seem to matter what the ENSO phase/strength is or what is going on in the Arctic, the regime favors closing off/occluded systems in the Ohio Valley. I think this goes way beyond Arctic/N PAC domain and what is going on with NAO/AO/PNA, etc. One thing I wished you more of out there is research that didn't center on using physics and calculus to prove what is going on. I mean don't get me wrong, that component is critical, especially when it comes to modeling but I feel like alot of ideologies we have which center on how ENSO and teleconnections factor have not evolved much as these databases grow.

A combo of those three would be phenomenal. One negative about COD too which I forgot to mention is it is not mobile friendly...at all. Several years back I believe a husband and wife had developed a mobile version and it was in the beta stages and there was an app...it wasn't bad. But I believe they ended up getting divorced and it died. I wonder how much better cod will become. What helps them is its the College of DuPage which developed it so 1) As long as they continue to receive adequate budget funding 2) If you're a student there and interested in modeling and development, what a freaking phenomenal opportunity to have. Imaging putting on a resume you helped build/develop products? 3) Also being freely offered - they probably aren't as cocky as some of these private vendors who all they care about is generating revenue and are going to create products to suck in the weenies.