OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I am a little worried I'm maybe too heavy near the coast, and that the best banding ends up inland a bit. I'm also not quite as bullish as my neighbors on snow ratios (closer to BOX than anyone else).
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Okay, I updated the snowfall. Probably going to piss off @wxeyeNH and make @dryslot happy.
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Poor guy just wanted to make a better snow ratio. I actually wouldn't hate the equation if it just capped ratios on the cold side. You could have a scenario where the lower end of the DGZ (-12C) is the warmest temp in the column, and the forecast ratio would be like 22:1. We know those single digit snowfalls can often be Arctic sand.
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For reference, all offices produce these maps the same way. WPC has a super ensemble and they ship us all the members snowfall distributed into bins. You end up with some version of a curve, and we picked the 90/10th percentiles off that curve essentially. So this is probably a result of some wild Kuchera members.
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You have to look at where those 1" QPF maxes are located too. Do they make physical sense. The Reggie has them on the edge and equatorward of the DGZ saturation. The highest QPF is going to be underneath where there is saturation, not adjacent to it. It's why the highest snow totals are typically west of the QPF max as modeled.
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Just wait until I get a hold of them in the next hour. Those ranges are based off of the WPC super ensemble after all, but there are definitely issues with that. If Kuchera is part of that distribution it is going to shift the 90% to a pretty high number.
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I'm having a hard time finding a Cobb total above 10 inches. The closest really is the GFS around BED right at 10 inches.
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I love the GFS ripping 4 inches in one hour for PYM as the band rips through.
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Running it back to 00z last night, the Euro definitely initialized too high with heights in the shortwave diving through the Rockies.
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Ripping after 5 or so. 00z looks like the sweet spot for PVD.
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If you are being charitable about what accumulation is, the GFS is 9 hours at ORH. 90% of it is 5-6 hours.
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We have to keep in mind the regime we're in right now too. The Pacific jet is in retraction right now, which is more prone to unpredictability in the models.
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It’s a different physics package so I wouldn’t expect one to predict the other.
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Like actually QPF or just a low location that you like? Because the 12z run was pretty paltry.
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We know that the ensembles in general are all underdispersive (the real outcome sometimes isn’t within the ensemble envelope). But it is quite something to see no EPS members with a significant QPF right now. Normally you would think a few juicy members would be in the 50.
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It's also physically incorrect. If the coast truly dry slots, there is way too much QPF after about 03z Mon.
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Nice dry slot headed my way.
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"Hey Scott, dinner is ready"
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The fun thing about the 18z NAM is that it would probably bust on the other end. The banding is even north of @dendrite on that run, the watch areas could be too far south.
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Yes and no. It is basically agnostic about the wind. Whether it feels like 30 below or actually is 30 below, cold is cold. The thresholds are dynamic based on climatology though.
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What a distribution from the 12z ensembles. Very clear two camps for PWM.
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Bingo. Caution flags. It would be tougher for BOX, but we could go watches Saturday afternoon and upgrade on the midnight shift and be fine on lead time for a Sunday night into Monday event.
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12z Euro ensembles for 3+ just are not awe inspiring. I'm going to need to see more than 10% to feel good about a watch for my backyard.
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50% or greater confidence in warning criteria, which has changed for some areas (generally 6, 7, or 8 inches for this sub-region).
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Actually it was pretty remarkable caution for our area. At least up here in New England we were citing all the uncertainty we've been talking about in here today.
