OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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At that time WSO CON forecast for all of NH, WSO PWM had everything south of a Jackman to Danforth line, and WSO CAR had the rest.
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Yeah, we're down hard here. It's been the easiest morning after a snowstorm I've ever had.
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1982 wasn't bad. Little lighter for BTV, much bigger for SNE.
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I just wasn't convinced the dry slot would saturate as well as it did. Models started getting a better handle of it 00z the night before for at least a few hours of deformation banding, but when that DGZ is dry I get worried about forecasting big totals. I think we did a really good job of keeping the QPF but knocking the ratios way down so we didn't have some obscene widespread 24+ forecast sneak out the door.
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The reality is that the previous observer was probably equally far from PWM, just on the cold side. I haven't been down to the peninsula today, but I'm guessing they have less snow downtown that I do.
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I was having a real hard time buying an additional 6" after 12z for a lot of locations yesterday, but it is looking like it is going be pretty widespread.
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WMUR also reporting 9.5 storm total.
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Nah. It's a pretty common mistake that I make all the time. I think Charlie found 3 consecutive obs of blizzard conditions (if you forego the "less than" 1/4 mile bit). But 3 consecutive obs is actually only 2 hours of time. You need 3 hours, so it's really 4 consecutive obs.
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Just stay within 5 miles or so of the Jetport. It is amazing the difference across town. The previous observer was in North Deering (not far from where I am).
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We couldn't reach them at 18z, but the METAR had a 6 inch snow depth. Based on their previous report we estimated 4.4" additional snow to reach that 6" depth. It could be 5.5" depth rounded up, so maybe you could take that down to 3.9", but it's still a snowfall of 5.5" plus whatever fell after 18z.
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Listen, no snow forecast is ever going to be perfect in all locations, but this is going to be a pretty great forecast for a difficult April storm. We'll see what the map looks like later today (though our phones are down, so we may have to delay until we can talk to all the Coops, etc), but I think it's going to look pretty good compared to even our Tuesday maps.
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Time to move. I'm over 50" for the season now on the northern outskirts of PWM.
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Even if you just made those months average (and March was below too) I would be near 80" for MBY. That's a solid +20 for the PWM area.
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I know the phones were out for the observer there, so we had trouble getting a total. We were estimating 6 inches at 18z yesterday.
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This was a real man storm up here. None of the typical spring garbage where downsloping or elevations plays havoc with the totals. It's going to be a fairly uniform 10-20" for most of our CWA, outside of the areas that struggled to flip to snow at the onset.
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Genny still running. Another 0.2" overnight brings me to 11.5". That's a 6:1 ratio for a nearly foot snowfall. One of the densest snowstorms I can remember.
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East Sandwich Coop with 18.5"
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You can see the circulation now over the Monadnocks on the LL WV product. That peaks around 620 mb, so the H7 low is probably a little south of that. Ekster doing naked snow angels through dinner time.
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There's big H8 convergence forecast through the afternoon. That's a little low for a DGZ fluff bomb, but the upper levels are cooling and some slightly warmer temps should be satisfactory for 10:1 ratios for a time.
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WV sure looks like it's going to try and saturate into a deformation band. May have a little dry air issue near here, but overall it should keep snowing into the early afternoon.
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We got our 30 burger, it just happens to be at Jeffreys Ledge.
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They were reporting blizzard conditions on my drive in and I can say it was not that bad. The roads were terrible and there were branches and wires down, but the vis was manageable. It's almost more of a fog than snow reducing vis to my eye.
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I haven't seen any sleet obs so far, just 1/4sm +SN. But I wouldn't be shocked if there was some graupel in there, because it's pretty convective.
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Depends how many drinks you give him first. He's about 4 miles from the office.
