OceanStWx

I followed my Actually feels very good to dust off the old winter procedures.

Thanks. Not everyone thought so.

Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now.

I'm not going to go back and dig up the posts where you advocated just trashing it instead of going FV3, but it's worth noting that no significant changes have been made to the model physics. It's the same package as the v14 GFS but a different core to make future changes easier. FWIW, these are the cosmetic changes made: Any narrowing of the performance gap (perceived or real) is more likely due to Euro changes than GFS at this point. I'd like to see more than ~ 1 year's worth of data before calling that though.

Facebook reminding me that it was 8 years ago today that the Euro locked in on Sandy's left turn. Good times.

One of Portland's ballot questions is related to our dispensaries. I guess law is 250' between dispensaries, but the referendum would change it to 100'. My thought was I'm pretty sure I can buy a four pack of craft beer every 100' on Commercial Street so why not edibles? If 100' is too close to be viable, one of the businesses will not make it.

We knew the glory days would come to an end eventually, just like our run of AN snowfall winters.

That's not to say this alone could've clued mets into how the event was going to unfold, but once the convective threat was identified the max SHERBE values certainly highlighted the area most at risk for significant severe (and I would say that multiple ASOS gusts near 60 knots while not technically significant by SPC definitions is pretty damn significant for these parts). Some of the subtle differences I saw between guidance and observations included slightly greater separation between the lead light rain/cloud cover and the convective line. This allowed low level lapse (key variable for SHERBE!) rates to be higher than forecast. Unfortunately I don't have any forecast graphics of LLLR, only objective analysis from SPC, but I can get point values from Bufkit and compare to SPC. They generally were forecast 6-18 hours prior to the event around 6 to 6.5 C/km, but SPC indicates that they may have been pushing 7.5 by go time.

I've been messing around with data from the event, trying to tease out what, if any, lead time we (NWS) might have been able to provide with the scale and scope. The messaging was definitely not convectively driven. In high shear/low CAPE environments Sherburn has done a lot of work to try and craft a parameter to hone in on the highest risk areas. SPC hosts a couple of those (SHERBE and modified version) that use the variables most correlated to significant severe weather in that environment. The 7th certainly qualified as HSLC. I ended up outlining the 1.5 unit SHERBE area and overlaid it on the SPC reports and the results were pretty damn good.

The drought monitor product is a blend of Palmer Drought Severity Index, CPC soil moisture, streamflow, and precip over both short and long term periods. So probably a bit of a mixed signal in there up north, but yeah mostly academic.

I don't know it's rained half of all days since I joined CoCoRaHS (10/1 ).

What thread is Kevin banging the wind gusts in?

This is good, get him used to the wintertime trends towards cutters.

My wife (Bates '08) has different thoughts about Bowdoin.

Heavy, heavy swamp maple leaf drop this morning in my neighborhood.

I don't think we've been bad but everyone I've talked to locally that has had a test done is taking days to a week+ to get results back. And some of our better results could be because the reopening has been slow. The big caveat is precautions, if those are truly being taken there can be success. I think the Maine wedding is a really instructive example. A couple has their wedding, and whether it was intentionally blurring the lines on state guidelines or truly confusing the regs I don't know, somebody was sick and spread it. Through secondary and tertiary infections that spread to a jail, a church, a long term care facility, and likely into the York County school system. Seven people died that didn't go to the wedding.

We have a 9 week rotation, where each week is a different shift. Leads rotate backwards, so we do evenings, days, midnights. It's that midnight shock that kills me. Basically pull an all nighter to start, and then just as you're getting adjusted to that sleep pattern you are shocked back into a more normal day. Though now that I have a kid at home the evenings are tough too. Don't get home until 12:30 and if I'm lucky asleep by 1, and then I have to get up with him in the morning so my wife can work.

The shift itself isn't that bad, but how fast we rotate through is killer.

Even so, I'm not in favor of winging it and figuring out what the long term ramifications are later. Rather than continue down the COVID rabbit hole, all I'll say is there is zero reason why we shouldn't given widespread testing and tracing a go before full scale reopening.

With a quick cheek swap, you could get a test and have results while waiting for your drive thru Dunkin coffee.

Interesting, because it sounds like not everyone has a fever with COVID. That's where I see widespread rapid testing being useful. Even at 80% accuracy, you grab two of those and the chances you falsely test negative twice are pretty low (like 4%).

Totally. Our office usually has someone go down every month for a few days with something like that. But since COVID every office has a supply of wipes and hand sanitizer, and station wipedowns are standard practice now. We've only had people call in sick for their kids in the last 6 months (maybe because everyone is afraid to fake a cold now? ). Makes me wonder why didn't always have a supply of wipes.

After working as long as I have in weather you notice that the US is just not great at preparedness and prevention. We're generally great with recovery. I hope some of these health practices carry over in the future, like the hand sanitizer that you mention. How much money could we save as a country from run of mill colds and seasonal flus that people don't catch because of that? And it's a relatively simple thing to do.

Yeah, I'm firmly in the camp of I just don't want to get it. So I wear a mask and we haven't been hanging out with anyone except for our parents. My job is already taking a toll on my long term health, so I would rather not mess with additional long term impacts. Most of what I've seen on these numbers is smaller populations, like the Penn State student-athlete testing showing roughly a third of the COVID cases still had heart inflammation months later. Well if we do some back of the envelope math on this for just 70+: that's roughly 28 million people in the US, at 5% mortality and 60% infection rate for herd immunity/just opening back up that's nearly 1 million people dead. Again, I'd rather not. Show me a plan beyond "we're over it" (i.e. mask mandate and rapid test everyone).

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