OceanStWx

Interesting, because it sounds like not everyone has a fever with COVID. That's where I see widespread rapid testing being useful. Even at 80% accuracy, you grab two of those and the chances you falsely test negative twice are pretty low (like 4%).

Totally. Our office usually has someone go down every month for a few days with something like that. But since COVID every office has a supply of wipes and hand sanitizer, and station wipedowns are standard practice now. We've only had people call in sick for their kids in the last 6 months (maybe because everyone is afraid to fake a cold now? ). Makes me wonder why didn't always have a supply of wipes.

After working as long as I have in weather you notice that the US is just not great at preparedness and prevention. We're generally great with recovery. I hope some of these health practices carry over in the future, like the hand sanitizer that you mention. How much money could we save as a country from run of mill colds and seasonal flus that people don't catch because of that? And it's a relatively simple thing to do.

Yeah, I'm firmly in the camp of I just don't want to get it. So I wear a mask and we haven't been hanging out with anyone except for our parents. My job is already taking a toll on my long term health, so I would rather not mess with additional long term impacts. Most of what I've seen on these numbers is smaller populations, like the Penn State student-athlete testing showing roughly a third of the COVID cases still had heart inflammation months later. Well if we do some back of the envelope math on this for just 70+: that's roughly 28 million people in the US, at 5% mortality and 60% infection rate for herd immunity/just opening back up that's nearly 1 million people dead. Again, I'd rather not. Show me a plan beyond "we're over it" (i.e. mask mandate and rapid test everyone).

Join us

I don't really see the stippling, so you might be right.

"Young Thomas was lost on his way to the woodpile."

I thought they got rid of those kinds of theaters...

Neither had I until this year, but drought stress coupled with sunshine and my chosen ornamentals are prime hosts for these guys.

Hard to tell with the zoomed out picture, but if the leaves look like this on the top: It's lace bugs. Undersides would look more like this (with or without the actual bugs themselves): My pieris japonica are dropping yellow leaves right now because of the lace bugs.

Yeah I just bought 100% neem oil and a gallon sized pump sprayer so I can maneuver the nozzle around to the underside of the leaves. My plan is to use neem solution the rest of this year, root soak early next spring, and then keep treating with the neem solution through the rest of the year. If that doesn't work I'll probably move to the systemic stuff. But I have 3 azalea now and 2 Japanese Andromeda and they are all suffering from varying degrees of infestation.

They are not eating the leaves, but sucking the sap out. So they are turning white (and leaving eggs and poop on the undersides). They are not green in color but very light with brown spots. Definitely lacebugs.

I got a root soak with imidacloprid for long term control. I don't like going with something that can affect pollinators, but I'm also not willing to lose hundreds of dollars in shrubs. Given that I'm not spraying it that should mitigate any collateral damage.

Anyone have any tips for lacebug infestations? They've found all of my azaleas and both lily of the valleys. It's bad enough that I don't think a simple horticultural oil to control the eggs is going to be enough.

Meh, let's let the verification process play out before it's called a total bust. 15 foot surge a few miles west indeed may have been an entirely different story and death toll, but it looks like it largely hit unpopulated swamp evolved to absorb that kind of surge. But that type of storm surge is indeed nearly impossible to ride out. I'm really not bent out of shape about the wording, I have more issues with how we do surge forecasting.

62 knots EWR. This event still cranking along.

I think you can with their highest level subscription.

Storm mergers can be amazing things. Looks like an initial supercell merged with another cell father west and that kicked off new meso development and essentially a HP wind bag. That RFD meant business.

You can even see it really surge out now that it hit the lower friction Sound.

This is probably the most important point. It's probably going to need to do it soon if it's going to reach Cat 5, because the deep core convection is starting to interact with land and shear is increasing on the west side. They've got flights in there until landfall though, so we should know with a fair amount of certainty if it does or not.

Yeah it's far away, but it's still at the upper end of what has been sampled on radars before. Not playing around with this one.

There is definitely a bias towards the CAPE side since that's the easy one to get over the threshold, but overall it does a fair job for areal coverage.

You would need an area of 45% hatched winds, which is probably a little too much to ask out of this event. I could see 45% wind, but hatched may be a stretch.

I'm not entirely surprised to see that composite go high. All guidance agrees on one thing: where the warm front settles will be a focus for severe weather. They differ a little on placement, but the evolution is quite consistent.

In fairness, the "unsurvivable" is coming directly from the NHC. You can argue whether that's hype or not, but it's not the result of media blowing it out of proportion. I would say it's a pretty small list of NWS offices this vulnerable to storm surge.