OceanStWx

Might see a little wind out there ahead of the cold front on Sunday. Could make the back 9 (more) interesting (that it always is).

Not sure it's all garbage. Case number is rapidly rising, near exponential. If we start approaching 2000 deaths/day, it's off to the races I think. We've never seen a weather model waver either. I mean these disease models get new inputs all the time (cases, state-wide COVID precautions, mortality rates, etc). So it's not surprising that numbers and the prediction horizons change. I assume they are referencing the IMHE model, which is updating every 2-4 weeks, which is why the horizon keeps moving about a month each time.

Not unless COVID is spreading through the interwebs now. We've been holding our spotter training virtually and I drew the short straw with the first session and highest turnout.

I was worried with well over 100 people in the meeting.

Apologies...

Facebook reminding me that it was 8 years ago today that the Euro locked in on Sandy's left turn. Good times.

One of Portland's ballot questions is related to our dispensaries. I guess law is 250' between dispensaries, but the referendum would change it to 100'. My thought was I'm pretty sure I can buy a four pack of craft beer every 100' on Commercial Street so why not edibles? If 100' is too close to be viable, one of the businesses will not make it.

My wife (Bates '08) has different thoughts about Bowdoin.

I don't think we've been bad but everyone I've talked to locally that has had a test done is taking days to a week+ to get results back. And some of our better results could be because the reopening has been slow. The big caveat is precautions, if those are truly being taken there can be success. I think the Maine wedding is a really instructive example. A couple has their wedding, and whether it was intentionally blurring the lines on state guidelines or truly confusing the regs I don't know, somebody was sick and spread it. Through secondary and tertiary infections that spread to a jail, a church, a long term care facility, and likely into the York County school system. Seven people died that didn't go to the wedding.

We have a 9 week rotation, where each week is a different shift. Leads rotate backwards, so we do evenings, days, midnights. It's that midnight shock that kills me. Basically pull an all nighter to start, and then just as you're getting adjusted to that sleep pattern you are shocked back into a more normal day. Though now that I have a kid at home the evenings are tough too. Don't get home until 12:30 and if I'm lucky asleep by 1, and then I have to get up with him in the morning so my wife can work.

The shift itself isn't that bad, but how fast we rotate through is killer.

Even so, I'm not in favor of winging it and figuring out what the long term ramifications are later. Rather than continue down the COVID rabbit hole, all I'll say is there is zero reason why we shouldn't given widespread testing and tracing a go before full scale reopening.

With a quick cheek swap, you could get a test and have results while waiting for your drive thru Dunkin coffee.

Interesting, because it sounds like not everyone has a fever with COVID. That's where I see widespread rapid testing being useful. Even at 80% accuracy, you grab two of those and the chances you falsely test negative twice are pretty low (like 4%).

Totally. Our office usually has someone go down every month for a few days with something like that. But since COVID every office has a supply of wipes and hand sanitizer, and station wipedowns are standard practice now. We've only had people call in sick for their kids in the last 6 months (maybe because everyone is afraid to fake a cold now? ). Makes me wonder why didn't always have a supply of wipes.

After working as long as I have in weather you notice that the US is just not great at preparedness and prevention. We're generally great with recovery. I hope some of these health practices carry over in the future, like the hand sanitizer that you mention. How much money could we save as a country from run of mill colds and seasonal flus that people don't catch because of that? And it's a relatively simple thing to do.

Yeah, I'm firmly in the camp of I just don't want to get it. So I wear a mask and we haven't been hanging out with anyone except for our parents. My job is already taking a toll on my long term health, so I would rather not mess with additional long term impacts. Most of what I've seen on these numbers is smaller populations, like the Penn State student-athlete testing showing roughly a third of the COVID cases still had heart inflammation months later. Well if we do some back of the envelope math on this for just 70+: that's roughly 28 million people in the US, at 5% mortality and 60% infection rate for herd immunity/just opening back up that's nearly 1 million people dead. Again, I'd rather not. Show me a plan beyond "we're over it" (i.e. mask mandate and rapid test everyone).

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I thought they got rid of those kinds of theaters...

62 knots EWR. This event still cranking along.

I think you can with their highest level subscription.

Storm mergers can be amazing things. Looks like an initial supercell merged with another cell father west and that kicked off new meso development and essentially a HP wind bag. That RFD meant business.

You can even see it really surge out now that it hit the lower friction Sound.

There is definitely a bias towards the CAPE side since that's the easy one to get over the threshold, but overall it does a fair job for areal coverage.