OceanStWx

I was mostly worried I would be a terrible parent. I've never been a kid person. I don't love other people's children, but boy do I love mine. None of it is easy, but I'll always be amazed at how instantly my whole world revolved around that little guy. Like Will said, underrated funny, but also underrated how much fun it is to watch them learn things. We have a 3'x4' USA puzzle, and I could sit for hours and watch him put it together. He's 2 and half and doesn't even need my help anymore. Gets all the edges done and then knows where all the states go (the Northeast is two big pieces so he gets a couple strokes for the little states ).

I'll be sure to thank you when I steal all your snow this winter.

Might see a little wind out there ahead of the cold front on Sunday. Could make the back 9 (more) interesting (that it always is).

Not sure it's all garbage. Case number is rapidly rising, near exponential. If we start approaching 2000 deaths/day, it's off to the races I think. We've never seen a weather model waver either. I mean these disease models get new inputs all the time (cases, state-wide COVID precautions, mortality rates, etc). So it's not surprising that numbers and the prediction horizons change. I assume they are referencing the IMHE model, which is updating every 2-4 weeks, which is why the horizon keeps moving about a month each time.

Not unless COVID is spreading through the interwebs now. We've been holding our spotter training virtually and I drew the short straw with the first session and highest turnout.

I was worried with well over 100 people in the meeting.

Apologies...

It's going to be big. ARW/NMM are really big snow totals, HRRR is decent, and NAM nest the lightest but not bad by any means. The NSSL WRF looks pretty amped on precip too. So I suspect the snow probabilities of the HREF take a big step forward. That being said, these are mostly 10:1 snow algorithms, so grain of salt.

Some of the classic rules of thumb for heaviest snow don't look half bad. Like the -4C 850 isotherm being a proxy for where heaviest snow will fall. That more or less sits on Route 2 tomorrow night.

Wouldn't shock me to see a bump north today. Ensemble sensitivity showing ~60% of the variance explained by a more amplified system. So maybe models overcorrected flat and will tick back some today.

So we're obviously testing GFSv16 now (hence the parallel version showing up on websites). One of the stated strengths of v16 is: I think the second sub-bullet is what you're driving at. So hopefully the test period here will support this perceived strength.

Ensemble cluster analysis has really bifurcated today. Almost all of the slower solutions are now EPS based, while the faster/flatter ones are all GEFS or CMC based.

I remember it was 1/4SM +SN at BDL during mid afternoon and our forecast still called for southern NH to start as rain. That was CON ZFP from 1929z, it started straight snow at CON at 2006z. Literal LOL.

Elevating this because in short, yes. There have been no major changes to the GFS, and none planned until next year at the earliest. So there is still a general cold bias in the mid levels. But there is also a bias to over-mix the boundary layer, keeping the surface a little too warm and dry when precip is falling.

NHC does great work, but it is a known that the GFS/GEFS has a right of track bias and a fast bias when storms are headed north.

Does Kevin still love this new FV3 core?

Meh, GFS is a little deceptive across southern NH anyway. Soundings are warm at the surface, but it's plenty cold aloft for snow. Ain't going to be a crusher though.

Just took a little look at shortest "warm seasons" if you want to consider that dates between snowfall events. We measured at CON on 5/9, so if we could get snow before midnight 10/29 that would tie the shortest duration between snowfalls. 172 days.

Also an exercise in serious slab lifting. Those final few Bufkit frames across MA you can see the warm nose both cooling and rising as it's ripping off about 30 ubars.

RIP DGEX.

Low levels are absolutely frigid though.

I followed my Actually feels very good to dust off the old winter procedures.

Thanks. Not everyone thought so.

Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now.