OceanStWx

Last I saw was Feb 2021. I haven't seen any evaluation suggesting that testing is not going well and I don't foresee any slippage due to that (though red tape could always cause a delay). Evaluation also suggests that it performs as well if not better than the operational GFS for most parameters. The most consistent complaints are regarding TCs and low CAPE biases, so not really relevant to cool season cyclogenesis. I view it as the operational GFS is still a useful data source, but I maybe weight v16 a little more given it's had a pretty successful year+ of testing.

I'm actually very interested in the parallel GFS this year vs last year. This will actually include some physics updates vs just changing the computing core of the model. So v16 may bring actual changes to model accuracy. I'm also not going to evaluate one model vs another based on clown maps. They were all pretty poor in that regard for the 5th/6th. If I remember correctly the Euro was first to move towards a more amplified and juicy system then which ultimately was correct. Unfortunately the antecedent air mass was too crap to support widespread accumulating snow.

The deterministic Euro is essentially just another ensemble member. The ECMWF (entity not the model) has chosen to vary both initial conditions to be close to the best guess starting state of the atmosphere, and the actual model itself to be close to but not perfectly match the control run. Their goal is to capture both uncertainty in the initial state of the atmosphere but also uncertainty in the model.

Every ensemble system is different, but in general it is just tweaks to initial conditions. You're not going to find scenarios where member 36 is going to score a coup because it handles shortwaves running into strong highs better or something.

Whole shortwave is north of 12z, and a little more negatively tilted compared to 12z.

Nah, more like tomorrow evening.

And really from subtle changes 18z to 00z. If anything the GEFS mean confluence looks stronger on the 18z run, but the 00z run just has a slightly farther south shortwave. Similar strength run to run.

18z GFS was a northern outlier within its ensemble system, so a southward correction doesn't surprise any. And honestly for all we know right now this could be a southern outlier on the 00z GEFS.

Can I borrow this for my AFD tonight, full credit of course.

I'll be the turd in the punchbowl. Cold storms are where the Kuchera ratios fail most. It's designed for near freezing cases, to account for mixing and lower ratios, but there is actually no limit to how high the ratio can get as temps below 500 mb get colder. And we know that snow ratio doesn't improve linearly with cooling temps. Take the mid to high teens, let's say average of 18. Let's assume that's the max temp below 500 mb too. That means Kuchera is like 18:1. That's not a realistic ratio for the duration of an event.

Big spread on the north side of ensemble systems.

Yep, governed by federal laws not state.

As the Men in Blazers always put it, the sky is so much closer to the ground in the north (of England but the same applies).

Late bloomers FTW up here.

From what I've read it's the support cells (not the ones actually responsible for smell) that are susceptible to COVID infection. Inflammation of these cells leads to the loss of smell. Also interesting is that it appears to be the most common and first reported symptom in the majority of cases, so probably a better screener than fever or cough.

I think the diabolically sneaky part is that the first landing area is actually angled short left to long right, so you better not have a hook.

Exactly. You have to carry 250 just to reach the second fairway. And then the dogleg is so severe that there really isn't a benefit to try and skip the first lay up.

Every house on the street with kids has lights on the house and light up forest animals in the yard. And pumpkins still on the steps.

Big Scooter snow forecasts coming after Christmas.

Who hasn't been there. Water, drop, water, drop, bunker, water, drop, green, two putt. In my defense my home course has a par 5 that requires you to lay up twice before approaching the green. So 2-3 water balls isn't that strange.

Threw mine up when it was 70 degrees. I'm not one to go from Halloween to Christmas, but we did this year.

My father in law started my wife investing in her teens, just putting a little away every month. Despite my salary advantage her 10 year head start probably has our accounts even at this point.

Undergrad was definitely my loan load, I had a similar arrangement with my MS. I don't think I was clearing 20k in stipend, but didn't pay a dime for classes otherwise (unless you want to count about $800 for a semester to extend my eligibility while writing my thesis). I lived in a cheap studio in Lowell near the Chelmsford line, and my sole goal was getting into the NWS. Even still I was lucky to have the job but no equity, but my wife was lucky to own her condo. So between the two of us we could flip that into a house. My biggest mistake was probably deferring my loans while I was in grad school. I probably should've found a way to pay the principal down. Only cost me a couple additional years of payments, but man it feels good to have that anchor gone.

I was mostly worried I would be a terrible parent. I've never been a kid person. I don't love other people's children, but boy do I love mine. None of it is easy, but I'll always be amazed at how instantly my whole world revolved around that little guy. Like Will said, underrated funny, but also underrated how much fun it is to watch them learn things. We have a 3'x4' USA puzzle, and I could sit for hours and watch him put it together. He's 2 and half and doesn't even need my help anymore. Gets all the edges done and then knows where all the states go (the Northeast is two big pieces so he gets a couple strokes for the little states ).

I'll be sure to thank you when I steal all your snow this winter.