OceanStWx

Someone's backyard station measured 106 mph east of Marshalltown.

Mesovortices in QLCS type events is a result of line normal bulk shear in the 0-3 km layer. If you can get 30+ knots of shear normal to the line, they are likely to form. Sometimes they result in tornadoes if other ingredients are in place, but more often just enhance wind locally due to pressure perturbations.

Unless policy has changed the QCA has siren activation at 70+ and many surrounding towns had begun to adopt it.

Looks like another formed near MIW (causing the 99 mph gust) and now a new descending RIJ has bowed out the line up there. And the new cells are forming because you've still got some nocturnal LLJ riding up and over the cold pool, which at this point is pretty large.

It looks like that gust was part of a mesovortex that formed a little north of town. Probably locally enhanced the wind, but looks like it has also set off a new descending RIJ that is now bowing the line out in the area between I-80 and Highway 30.

MIW measures 99 mph. That's good stuff.

To me it looks like a mesovortex forms in the line around Jefferson, IA, and that development kicked off the expansion of the inflow jet aloft. Once it started descending (reflectivity behind the line starts to weaken) that line surges forward through DSM.

Temps. Warm days, cool nights, less favorable time of year for weeds as well. Up here that's typically late August to early September, but as you push south it moves deeper into September.

Paul, you want to watch a real deal RIJ form you just loop that radar through DSM. I'm pretty sure a mesovortex developed and set the whole thing off as it crossed through the city.

Man, I miss these events. Coming right down I-80 at the old WFO.

Some sort of moisture boundary sitting there through DVN's CWA (upper 70s south, low to mid 70s north) and heating both sides of it. Some serious potential here.

Honestly me too. Give me an extended fall though, still would like to overseed and get some stone work done.

Swamp maple in my neighbors yard is already turning red and throwing leaves.

I had pest control over (I don't want the 2 year old wandering nearby) and what luck, some animal came along and dug out the nest between my mowing and his arrival. My guess is the Raid I used to knock down the swarm enticed some critter in to clean up the dead ones. What workers were left buzzing around looked like bald-faced hornets to him, but that surprised me given I saw no documentation of nesting underground. Either way they hurt, and I'm glad they're gone. I've been looking to get some for the yard myself, so I don't know much besides what I've researched. Any signs of fungus or pests?

Well that's an 8 hour round trip. But yes, I could do some damage in VT that doesn't involve taking the power out for a week.

Always the contrarian. I did notice when I was searching for the nearest location on untapped that you rated it the same as the global average for Coors.

Just saw that they are distributing to Mass now, trying to figure out how I can leave work and take a little 3 hour round trip to resupply my fridge now that power is back.

Well the day finally came. I was out mowing before heading to work and stepped on a nest of something that likes to sting/bite. I think I escaped with only about a half dozen burning/throbbing welts. Still not sure what they were though. Nest was clearly in the ground, they fly, it's a searing sting/bite, but didn't look anything like a yellow jacket. Looked smaller to me, blackish body and yellowish legs.

If I'm going to have to go with a full tropical forecast up here it damn well better strengthen to a hurricane.

I think that's actually a warm wake off the top of the convection, the center should be tucked just south of that pink tower. But convection is wrapping around the center which is good.

Honestly don't hate the 18z 3 km NAM wind gust forecast. Right look to the wind field, if not within a few knots of what I expect the gusts to be like. Also chucks a few updraft helicity tracks for Ryan Tuesday evening.

Yeah 7/1/17. Ekster handing out TORs like Oprah.

For an East Coast recurve, you want a good upstream jet streak, mid level ridging north of the cyclone, and a good low level theta-e ridge drawn north extending well NE of the center. Model forecasts are pretty close to this conceptual model.

I'm on Long Pond most of the summer. Great area, I don't hate it.