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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    BTV has more than twice as many hours above 90 degrees as BDL. So considering your elevation, BTV probably has you by 3 maybe 4 times.
  2. OceanStWx
    We've actually capped our surface temp from pressure level at 25C at 850 mb.
  3. OceanStWx
    I prefer the lakes, but there's something to be said for the beaches if you're trying to escape the heat (which is likely how those old family homes originated).
  4. OceanStWx
    That's the key, and why I'd watch the coast near NJ if it tucks just inland. Could be enough 0-3 km CAPE to get it done, but timing doesn't look great for New England.
  5. OceanStWx
    They just need deep tropical convection to sustain them, so TC strength isn't a necessary factor. With this event I would personally like to see a better upper jet to really get that moisture transport going.
  6. OceanStWx
    Dammit, someone noticed. You can't make fog dense (F+) when you have drizzle unless you make both + (e.g. L+). I just noticed it on my last updated and dropped all drizzle. While technically you could have heavy drizzle, I think it sounds stupid.
  7. OceanStWx
    Nearly gave myself heat stroke today, but I dragged myself around 18 walking. 50 back (teed off 10) and 41 front.
  8. OceanStWx
    Solid drizzle all day at my place with some heavier showers every now and then. 3.66" event total.
  9. OceanStWx
    You have any reports out of naples? Had some hail of unknown size in Denmark, but that's it so far. I don't see any reason for it to fall apart completely. Better CAPE/shear is east. I think the composite radar look of individual cells is mostly because it's far from all radars and you're just seeing the tallest towers.
  10. OceanStWx
    What's the question?
  11. OceanStWx
    FFW soon? MRMS lighting up.
  12. OceanStWx
    The D in DCAPE stands for damage.
  13. OceanStWx
    How'd you hack into SPC's system?
  14. OceanStWx
    Probably closer to BDR, but in reality the true warm front is south of LI (you've got more of an outflow boundary). Oh, and https://www.nwcg.gov/term/glossary/wetting-rain
  15. OceanStWx
    What was the final verdict on 0.25"?
  16. OceanStWx
    You know what doesn't make spring any better in New England? Global pandemics.
  17. OceanStWx
    It is the worst part of our website, by far.
  18. OceanStWx
    Than our radar web interface absolutely, but they are still using NWS radars (in most cases).
  19. OceanStWx
    You can see a little twist of a MCV in there, so I checked out the WAA wing forecasts of the NAM and RAP guidance. Pretty good height continuity along the Pike to CT border area, but north or south of that and you are left with little or elevated WAA. You can see the meat of the forcing sliding along the NY/PA border right now. High PoP, low QPF.
  20. OceanStWx
    And if I remember correctly they tried to set up fire breaks along highways like Route 1, but the strong winds allowed the flames to jump the road.
  21. OceanStWx
    I don't know about a soaking, I think overall the whole thing is decaying. But rain is rain.
  22. OceanStWx
    My gut is still south. You're going to want to see convection at least to Saginaw if there is going to be any appreciable QPE in NH.
  23. OceanStWx
    Hedging your bets by attributing your forecast to someone else?
  24. OceanStWx
    What words are you putting in my mouth now? Pretty sure I'm on board with the KOOP missing the goods.
  25. OceanStWx
    Those two models I mentioned would favor the heaviest amounts along the Pike.
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