OceanStWx

CAMs did move a bit north from 00z. I'm still more in the HRRR or ARW camp trending towards the CAPE axis.

That year was one of PWM's driest on record. From July 1 through November 1 they only received ~ 5" rainfall. 0.27" in August, 1.73" in September (but fell in basically two events), and another 0.26" in October. I would think one of the key difference between now and then is the fact that we're greened up vs down.

What could go wrong?

I'm on the follow the CAPE bandwagon.

I get the obsession with AC now...

It's typically pretty hard to get long term drought conditions around here. Even this one is a short term drought thanks to the last month and a half. Otherwise we were running normal precip. If you are wiping out groundwater for multiple seasons then maybe your trees could get crispy. That's why it's typically surface fuels that burn and not whole forests.

My gut feeling is that WB will be status quo, while WM will see features grow over time (as long as Ryan doesn't leave there too).

Couple runs old, but the 23.00z EPS had a 10th percentile of around a half inch for most of the area (i.e. 90% of the time you're getting at least 0.50").

A sea of

Ekster and I go back and forth as to whether we want the office to have WeatherBell or WeatherModels.

I want to have access to the EPS again, our office account was either hacked or somebody gave out the password to a friend and it was shutdown. Any "big" rain signal this time of year better show up in the ensemble guidance otherwise it is likely just a figment of convective imagination. I know the Euro run from yesterday looked more like a MCS induced rain bullseye over New England than an actual synoptically forced rain event. Could we get a bunch of rain that way, sure, but I'm not betting on it.

0.24 in the last 40.

Losing instability as moisture is cleared out, so toast after that band.

Personally I like that low pressure that goes WNW from DVN to BIS around 7/1.

I've been tracking that for a bunch of years now, I've been pretty consistently averaging about 240 carry. Depending on how damp the course is anywhere from 250-270 on the roll out. The good swings can get me 270 carry and near 300 on the roll out. I would really like to figure out how to do that consistently, because the game does get easier.

That's why I want to run the soil test first, but all signs pointing towards at least slightly alkaline at the moment.

My plan is to do the same this fall. I think I may have to mix some peat in to get the soil away from alkaline. I'll just some soil tests first, but I'm pretty sure that's a big issue for me.

Record May in fact. 95.8" 6th snowiest month up there period.

Sounds like some serious neglect on the part of dam owners. Were told repeatedly to increase the capacity of the spillways and never did it/slash tied it up in courts. I don't know their exact probable max flood threshold, but they are usually a 1/1,000,000 of occurrence in a given year (very conservative for a reason, since the high risk dams can kill people if they give way). They argued that the chances of that happening in the next 5-10 years was 1/5,000,000-10,000,000 (for some reason adding the yearly occurrence together). The true chance of a PMF happening in the next 5-10 years is actually 1 - (the chance that the PMF doesn't occur in 5 or 10 years in a row). They were also cited for not being able to even contain a half PMF. So the true probability is more like 1/50,000 instead. What's a 100-fold error between friends?

First round in on Saturday at Belgrade Lakes. Normally my crap posture means I fat my shots early in the year, but my big miss was topped shots all day. 52 on the front then resorted to G&Ts and managed 3 pars on the back, actually 3 of the last 5.

We do. Honestly if it weren't for the neighbors who dropped sod across the street, I might have salvaged the best lawn on the street so far. We were all in pretty rough shape year one though.

First mow today. It's green, and good in some spots, but I've got my work cut out for me. I've always had a lot of white clover because of the very basic contractor landscaping that took a while to germinate. Seeing a lot more crab grass this year than last, or maybe it's just more obvious now that the good parts of the lawn are trying to fill in. Also as the neighborhood has filled in with houses the drainage has definitely changed in subtle ways, and a very damp side yard has seen a lot of horsetail spouting. I think my main motivation for mowing today was to eliminate these things from going to seed/spore and some spots were unsightly tall. My young lilacs look to be doing all right though, with at least one showing some signs of flowering this year (I was expecting at least another season without). The hydrangea are really leafing out now, spirea just popped buds this week, peonies really survived the winter well (probably going to triple the number of flowers this season). Projects this week will hopefully include an overseed, maybe aerating (I think my soil is too compacted which gave the weeds the best chance), and edging my flower beds with pavers.

Posted this in Wiz's severe thread to give him a hard time, but Maine is going with limited golf on May 1. I assume that means no sharing golf carts, but for us walkers that should mean no real changes. Now the fact that I haven't swung a club since early February may be more of a problem.

Best way to get over winter is get a storm under you?

I like it. Load it up with drinks, snacks, music. Plus by the end of the 18 carrying I was usually way too gassed on a July day to keep a good round going.