weathertree4u

Such a tease

Oh and post pictures!

Pulling for you guys out east - nothing but a cold cold rain here north of Nashville

So, will be interested in the 12Z suite of models. Looks like the Euro over-corrected too far north imo, seems like allot of the modeling is clustered around the KY/TN border east, just my untrained thoughts!

Will wait overnight for the Euro - after all - it is only early December and there are many more model runs between now and the end solution - look at the general patterns not the single model runs.

Get an error message could just be me...

Yes, I would concur, the snowdome is safe and sound and they are expecting it to hold this year as well. Though, as we have alluded to, if modeling is still showing the same thing especially by Thursday at this time, then well, perhaps we might get a plowable snow.

Famous last words; they are historically overly conservative; guarantee that it will change by this time tomorrow.

Too soon to get excited but have to say that my experience with ULL is that they can pack a wallop

You saw those too! Some of them were pretty heavy hitters for the area, especially I-40 north. I would say the greater majority of them were showing at least something next weekend.

Interesting, thanks for posting

Well, yea, thanks for all the information. To throw a wrinkle in it, I may be deciding between two schools that direction, ETSU or ASU in Boone, may come down to which one reliably gets the most snow and not $ lol

Considering a offer with ETSU - where would be the best location - best guess - to reside for winter weather? Totally not familiar with the area, in theory, with the added elevation, should at least have more chances for snow than currently do in the middle part of the state - just north of Nashville.

I was thinking the same thing about Hugo, was in high school back then and can recall the huge impacts on the US - alarming is that there really are fewer and fewer escape options for Florence with each passing day. In addition, with each passing day, she inches closer and closer to that high octane water of the Gulf Stream. I honestly wonder if a projection of 145 is conservative?

I was thinking the same thing. I dont follow the stuff as closely as some in the forum but could tell yesterday early on that things in reality were not modeled correctly. Was a great air mass but could have used a little rain!

Excellent point. The physics behind the models I know is way over my head, simply amazing that we can take an educated guess at it at all. Plus when you factor in the things that probably are not factored in like low solar and continued volcanic activity, heck, we might as well flip a coin!

Which is generally why the weather is just so fascinating. Not sure whether we will ever develop the capability to forecast much better than we are now honestly!

Have been seeing some brief mentions for next Winter for a El Nino Modoki, is this an indication of that as well and or what are your thoughts?

What am I missing, do not really see any chances over the, well, for the rest of the season. Good that we are getting the rain though!

Usually just lurk in your forum but cannot resist posting! We are the same way really in the TN Valley, though, we have gotten more snow this year than in the previous couple. Still, I am left wondering why it is so hard to get one or two of those "I-40" specials like I remember as a kid in the late 1970's and 1980's? The good ones that give everyone 5" or 6" and melt away in two days? We got 3" or so last Friday plus the 3" - 4" we just got. Snow is really becoming an issue for me since we have an inability to keep the side streets clear. I am fine with a snow that is gone in a couple of days, not so much snow that hangs around for close to a week!

Might be a blessing in disguise. With snowpack, what is cold now will be frigid with snow.

I was just thinking the same thing, what year was that and you are right, it is ironically opposite of what we usually see, where the cold is always in the LR and keeps getting pushed back. I know here in the Nashville area, the record of consecutive days below 32 is 9, back from the late 1800's, we should come close to that after today, we are not projected to break 32 until at least next Saturday. Hopefully the utilities are up to the stress of sustained cold.

I remember that one well. Allot of places on the Highland Rim were without power for two weeks or more. Even today, when driving through the area, it looks like all the trees in the woods were pruned back, now about 15' down. The real problem with that storm was that after the front pushed through early that morning, the wind picked up out of the northwest which was the final blow for allot of the trees. It was a nightmare for sure.

Honestly, one would think that forum members do not go through this every year! Even some of the historically awesome winters that Nashville has had have had warm spell. I do not know if these are analogs for our current winter but they re-affirm my point that sometimes, it is warm during the winter but sometimes, as in 1951 and 1963, you are within a week or two of some pretty awesome winter weather. From 01/17/1951 - 01/20/1951 Nashville was well into the mid and upper 60's I am sure people were thinking winter was over. Here are a couple of entries from the weather records for the end of the month... 01/29/1951 - The worst ice storm in Nashville's history begins, causing a complete stalemate of transportation in Nashville for two days. Frozen precipitation starts during the evening, with 1.6" of snow and ice accumulating by midnight 01/30/1951 - Five inches of snow and ice fall, much of it during the evening, producing a water equivalent of 3.83". This is the greatest one-day precipitation event for January in Nashville's history. 02/01/1951 - Precipitation continues at Nashville through the morning, most of it as snow, and finally ends around noon. An additional 5.2" are measured, leaving the city buried under 8" of ice and snow. 02/02/1951 - Temperature at Nashville drops to -13, tying the record low for the month. Consider January 1963. From 01/09/1963 - 01/11/1963 Nashville was well into the 60's and very mild until 01/23/1963. 01/10/1963 - An F3 tornado touches down at Spring Hill (Maury County) just before midnight. The twister cuts a 4 mile path, lifting at Bethesda (Williamson County), after causing 4 injuries. 01/23/1963 - The strongest cold front in mid state history brings heavy snow and an unprecedented drop in temperature. Nashville receives 6.2" of snow. In addition, the high temperature reaches 48 degrees, but plummets to -13 degrees by midnight, for a range of 61 degrees. This is the greatest daily range of temperatures in Nashville's history. 01/24/1963 - Temperature at Kingston Springs drops to -30 degrees, which is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Middle Tennessee, and comes within 2 degrees of tying the all-time record low for Tennessee (Mountain City, 12/30/1917). Other record lows include Clarksville (-17), Dover (-24), Lafayette (-20), Linden (-18), Portland (-19), Springfield (-18), and Waverly (-26). In fact, Waverly sees its temperature drop by 80 degrees with the passage of the strongest cold front in mid state history. Five inches of snow accompany the dramatic change in temperature. The Duck River freezes solid from bank to bank for the first time since 1898. Harbors along the Tennessee River also freeze. It is considered the worst winter weather since the 1951 ice storm. http://www.weather.gov/ohx/calendar I have also attached some pix from the January 1951 storm in Nashville