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Everything posted by weathertree4u
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
weathertree4u replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not sure how reliable the CFS model is but it builds a glacier in the lower 48 for the first two weeks of January. -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
weathertree4u replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I am just happy to not see such warm temps this December; hopefully we can at least have a normal Winter season this year, a couple of snows would be a bonus, just cannot stand another year of mid 60's in January~ -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
weathertree4u replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Lock it in! -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
weathertree4u replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Is this another Winter season where the cold and snow chances are always in the long range? Not really seeing it. Likely, hopefully, just because not aware of what or where to look. -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
weathertree4u replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
We are overdue for a true arctic outbreak imo and it would fit well with some of the analog years I have seen like 1989 -
December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
weathertree4u replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Would not take much to beat last year; heck, at this point, I would like one hard freeze so I could stop mowing grass. -
Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
One thing is for sure, we are getting pretty dry here in the Middle TN area. Need a good soaking rain. -
Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Would not take much to make it a better winter imo -
Was fairly localized in the Middle TN area; I am in Sumner county, northeast of Nashville near White House and while it did storm, we got lots of rain and wind maybe 30 mph
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We were seemingly able to dodge most of the fowl weather here in Middle TN over night, thankful about that! Hope that holds for the future as well!
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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
weathertree4u replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
One thing is for sure though, I bet that TVA/Corps of Engineers is stepping up the flows from the area holding facilities in advance of this system next week. -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
weathertree4u replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like wet pattern is set to return with a vengeance -
Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21
weathertree4u replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
He is implying that we are headed into a cooler climate based on previous solar mins and the previous tilts of the Earth; could very well be but there are multiple drivers of climate and the weather in general, not just as in this case, solar mins and tilt of the Earth. -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
weathertree4u replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
@jaxjagmanat least next winter may be different -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
weathertree4u replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just amazing. I think you @jaxjagmanhad posted last week sometime about the extremes in the weather and to think that possibly at some point in the Summer this tap will shut off in a big way and we could go from extremely wet to extremely dry, which, could bode badly for the fire season fall 2020 -
Mid 60's for an extended period of time in mid February - just so amazing - residents of the TN Valley will be sorely surprised when the larger scale pattern eventually flips; if we were to have a winter season like we had in my child hood -1970's-1980's - people would not know what to do not to mention if we had one similar to the 1960's where almost every season in that decade had at least one big storm and several seasons had seasonal totals well over 12" - just amazing! Anyone have any idea when we break from this multi-year crap pattern?
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Same occurring in the TN Valley area - north of Nashville here - looks like the same pattern to continue - got to break this pattern of poor winters - this is like the third one in a row where winter is MIA
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My question is - why does the GFS show something almost night and day different?
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Seen this movie before - major changes telegraphed in the LR - then when it gets to the timeframe modeled - the pattern of persistence is the one that wins out - hope I am wrong but just seen this too many times before.
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Not liking, not that any of us would, the wet pattern that seems to be being telegraphed by long range modeling, not to mention the severe threats!
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Can tell a difference in the air mass this morning versus yesterday morning, most certainly feels like a late Spring morning, hope we can get a pass on this one too!
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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
weathertree4u replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yea it is not a good look on the models that is for sure. Do not know where we are going to put the couple inches we should get this weekend. No telling what would happen if we got that as modeled -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
weathertree4u replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yea was over middle tn yesterday runs imagine will move around until get closer -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
weathertree4u replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not good, not good at all -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
weathertree4u replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
CFS seems bring heavy rain back to region through March
