Ralph Wiggum

Jan 20 PSU just added you to his friends list.

Went from hysteria to utopia in 45 minutes This place drives me nuts at times I swear people.

I know it reemerged at the end of run but was nice to see the ridge N of Hawaii weaken substantially in the mid range which to me is more important than a 384 hr prog. Start hammering that PAC pattern little by little. Still plenty of time its not even Jan 1 technically.

Just my $.02 but from my reading and research lately there are SSWEs going on in tandem at both poles. This is apparently a rather rare event. Couple that with the near-record SSW SD event in our hemisphere and imho this is like a powder keg with a lit fuse. We are entering unchartered atmospheric conditions and to me it is clear why the models are struggling this severely and showing some rather unique and odd looks. Something is going to give over the next 2-3 weeks because I dont think anyone knows what to expect from these happenings at both poles and how they will effect this patterns globally. I think there is a 50/50 chance we either head into a highly anomalous pattern in the East which favors a 'cancel winter' type pattern OR something very wintry that we are all going to look back on and use as a measuring stick for future seasons. I just have a hunch things are going to bust wide open in a big way and it is really going to be worth the wait. Like I said tho its damn near impossible to say which way but some highly anomalous weather is coming to the US in a few weeks with wild swings and a tight gradient/boundary. I am holding out hope and I normally would have tossed the towel in by now. Heck even my winter outlook argues for much BN snowfall but somewhere in the East is going to pay for this run we r having....the atmosphere plays a balancing act it always has and always will and no I'm not referencing 'atmospheric memory' either lol.

While I dont disagree with your assessment verbatim that has the look of a convoluted pattern which is about to roll over on itself.

And just to point out even if u r living and dying with the ops run the trof in the west that has been there is your big take away this run? Not the flattening almost entirely of the ridge n of HI?

Because during a major pattern transition that the ens cant even agree on the ops are definitely the way go for LR forecasts.

Then stop unicorn hunting in the extended. I dont mean that disrespectfully because I am as guilty as anyone here. But there are signals showing up in the medium range which were/are the steps we were expecting headed into January. With such large changes coming if model A misjudged something in the short range then its errors will be exponential in the long range. That kind of goes without saying...I know. But my point is we have seen this happen before and 9 out of 10 times many of us get caught looking at 384 ens means and seeing the major differences and overanalyze when what we really need to see of importance is happening right in front of us. I am extremely optimistic moving forward and while I dont think the GEFS are 100% correct I do think this modeling system has a better grasp on what is occurring.

In addition I believe we are in or just entering a period of time where some major changes are starting to pop up right under our noses. MJO is moving, SOI is negative, PV split is starting to show in the med range. We have gotten into looking too far into the future for the 'full pattern change' when things are happening now that are affecting the LR and this is generally when something pops up and catches us by surprise. Just my $.02

When the models are struggling this severely and bouncing every run, in my experience this is the sign of a major pattern change on the not too distant horizon. There will be a major change but will it be beneficial? I believe it will but obviously just speculatuon and tbd irt specifics.

This is the thaw....deep freeze coming after Jan 20.

And like someone waved a magic wand poof....good pattern look all but gone. I'm sure it will be back and that period still has a threat but it is comical and frustrating at the same time to see the flopping in the models simultaneously from run to run.

February is going to be classic!

I think today we are right where we said we wanted to be 2 weeks ago which is starting to see slight transitioning in the pattern and also seeing some fantasy storms in the long range finally with stuff to track. MJO forecasts slowly coming around as well tho the eps mjo still entering the cod where the GEFS MJO gets to 7 and stalls. Either one is better than being stuck in phase 6 so these are all positives moving forward imo.

GEFS essentially all get to 7 then stall there. That would be one of the scenarios we have been hoping for anyway. Let's just get to 7 first tho.

FV3CPO GFS says what storm

Next and most intriguing threat window Jan 8-10. Major teleconnections lining up rather favorably with nice looking PAC and decent transient (for now) ATL side with energy undercutting the region and an active NS. First time in a long time all 3 major global ops (and ens) show snow for the region....maybe since November. Finally seeing some positive changes down the road as well.

And they are arguably the hottest team attm.

Unless your name is Ji. Go big or go home.

Yeah but this one shows what we want so its obviously leading the way, duh

Forgot this

Go Bears!!!!

We can nickle and dime our way to seasonal snowfall average if we have 2000 more events like today.

Dr No (Euro) emphatically cuts the late week storm West of Ohio. Can't make this stuff up.

Cool another tucked low to go with our cutters. I'd rather get back to suppression....at least it was cold.