Ralph Wiggum

EPS mean qpf VERY impressive with a 6" snowfall mean even in my central Bucks neighborhood.

18z ICON has some accumulating snow for the NW burbs on Monday fwiw.

As a side note, when was the last time we had a topic tagged as "hot" in this subforum?

Could go either way, but with a -AO/-NAO tandem in place, I will take my chances. If the look up.top holds, I expect the CAD look to increase and the setup to slowly tick colder as the event gets closer. Good to see this type of setup tho. But before buying gas for the snowblower or 20 pounds of ice melt, need to remind myself this is 6 days out and much could change. But great to have an actual trackable event. Feeling somewhat optimistic on this one given the looks up top....if they hold.

DT honking for N of PA turnpike. Would be nice to get one of those classic N and W of the city events. Been a long time. They were so common years ago.

Main takeaway from 12z suite....stronger confluence, HP, and CAD. Even a thump to taint in mid Dec is a win IMHO. Promising sign for the winter. Last 3 seasons the pattern was dictated by mid Dec and was crud. Reversal this year. Solar minimum ftmfw!

Euro is a big hit, especially NW of the fall line.

-AO and -NAO are locked in thru the majority of both the GEFS and GEPS runs. PAC also shows noted improvement during the run.

Good look on the GEFS. -NAO, -AO, 50/50, disturbance passing just to our South. Cant ask for a much better look on an ens mean at this point. Scandinavian ridge working its magic. The key to this winter is looking promising.

Fringed. Probably correct.

JMA, ICON, Euro, GFS, and CMC all have the midweek event. Gaining legs. Of most importance regarding this threat is the better confluence showing up and a stronger HP with subsequent deeper CAD continuing to show with each new run. Heading the right direction. Anyone who starts a specific thread of this threat before Sunday should have an auto-ban. No jinxes. Let's roll.

Liking the looks on the ensembles of the Scandinavian ridging (which has essentially been locked-in since early Oct) not only feeding and fueling the NAO ridge but also bolstering the -AO. Pac isn't looking terrible with a low around Western Alaska and a flat ridge in the PNA region. Again, we don't need/want to see -5 SD in the AO/NAO...subtle anomalies often end up verifying more often than those unicorn teases we've seen over the past few years. With these looks we should have ample chances at the very least.

Certainly a threat at day 5-6 in the MR. Euro holds the Plains energy back and allows for more spacing to amplify while most other models are faster with the flow and don't allow for much amplification due to wavelength issues with a low over the GL/SE Canada much like the system from Monday which brought light snow to the southern mid atl but was moving off the SE coast (GGEM is a close look to that). Something to watch and has potential if things can slow down with just enough HL blocking to force the Plains energy to dig to the Gulf States ala the Euro. I do like the much better looks of the GEFS and GEPS going forward in time. Not a unicorn look but better Baffin ridging, Aleutian low look. Blinds are opening. I should post the gif above more often....reverse psychology might work. We'll see.

Two things confirmed..... 1. Wentz on the Bench 2. Opening one blind to peek out...things suddenly look workable on the ensemble means. Not great....yet...but not the shutout look that was advertised run after run for a while.

Definitely going to enjoy watching it. Having gone thru the dismal past few winters, it makes you enjoy these tiny events much more.

Thats exactly where I'm at too. 'Maybe' a brief chance mid-month then crud pattern. Based on historic analogs looking at different tellies, January should provide some chances.

New England Lucy'd, Euro back to leading the pack, DT on the Mid Atl forum. This is the stuff of lore that we once told our kids about and it's happening again.

I am so sorry to hear this. We are here for you. Hopefully this winter can provide some positive diversion for you. Enjoy those children, they are precious and those ages are some of the most enjoyable as a parent.

When DT starts a thread about a snow potential, I am confident entering the thread that there will be little if any GFS chatter and lots of Euro love.

Revisit this setup in 3 weeks and BAM!

Shhhh, 12z gfs is night and day vs 6z. Full lat SE ridge at 12z and complete Nina look vs epic neg NAO look from 6z. This looks like that transition we deal with every winter where models are waffling on major pattern change which inevitably ends up dictating a good chunk of winter ahead. Been down this road almost every year....some ya win, some ya lose. Hoping the less Nina look and more favorable blocking will be the theme and not the opposite. Cautiously optimistic. I mean it's 2020, what could go wrong?

If we can get storm tracks this winter like the one forecast for the upcoming weekend, many here wouldnt complain. Benchmark track for SE PA. Hopefully this becomes the default and not the apps runner track that Cecily/Adam think will be repetitive. I'll tag myself, thank you.

EPS not gloom and doom as much as the GEFS and GEPS were for mid month. Holds that Scandinavian ridging which I had mentioned feeding the neg NAO. PAC is also neutralish looking. A workable pattern anyway and not a total shut the blinds look. Key to this winter as I stated in early Nov will he how long and how strong that Scan ridge holds and if it continues to feed the NAO as it has shown since mid Sept. Cautious optimism.

Last days of November=the new late May/early June.