Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Better choice for subscription service weatherbell, weathermodels, or is there one I am overlooking? Looking for access to detailed ens members primarily. @Bob Chill, @psuhoffman
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When you say 'a couple' do you literally mean 2? Are there a few that redevelop off the VA Capes or Delmarva? And did you notice an increase in faster/farther s redevelopment on the individuals vs 12z? Thanks.
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People in the Carolinas must be licking their chops at the LR ens.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
12 gfs has a half foot of snow up this way friday night into Saturday before a flip then maybe ending as frozen. -
Is that a surface low East of Assateague Isle?
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I dont think so. Depends on what you are panicking over I guess. If you are nervous the front end thump wont drop 10" of snow and sleet then sure. These primary storms in the midst of a pattern change generally dont overperform. This is likely the same....just a tablesetter for the week of the 20th. I will be happy with a coating of slop before any flip.
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Run at 60 again next weekend?
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Actually it was worse.
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If the ens means start backing off on the LR looks during MLK week......
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Damn where did this strong SE ridge come from? That cant be good:
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Not sure what's worse....this game or the ICON taking the primary well into Quebec at 986mb
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It isnt over yet.
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Is it still considered CAD with temps inside the wedge in the 50s? Asking for a German friend. He's sort of an icon.
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It's only the ICON, I expect it to torch next weekend. Oh, the game, right.
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Wow!
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How are the Ravens playing from behind this season? I would assume they weren't in that situation too often?
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Off hour run....toss it
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Shhhhh, dont wake the weenies
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Seems just fine to me....let the roller coaster ride begin. -
I think next weekend had/has the attention of many because it is the first legit frozen threat after this torch weekend pattern and is also ushering in the change farther down the line. Albeit it's a mix look and pretty much always has been but frozen is frozen and better than 70 degrees.
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NAO block and take our chances with a bigger storm or progressive Atl side and several medium events. Choose your poison.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2019/2020 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Cant deny there is some serious cold being modeled to pour into the US after next weekend. EPS is more aggressive with this than the usually cold-bias GFS/GEFS. -
Analyzing the GEFS moreso than the GFS. I dont put alot of stock in the op GFS until 5 days or less leads.
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Getting that feeling we are going to continue to slowly move away from a big thump to mix situation and more thump quickly to sleet mix to rain usual areas with well inland holding onto frozen much longer. Typical progression with these storms. Better than where we are at today and tomorrow anyway.
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GEFS 850 trends are yikes. 2m temps warmed too but not as drastic. A sign LL cold will be around. GFS family known for big jumps but still worth a mention:
