Ralph Wiggum

Both are extreme solutions on either side. Truth is likely in the middle between the GFS and Euro which is usually the best way to go here. That is still 10-18" and an awesome event. Im sure there will be lollies of 24" or higher but the CMC family is the extreme outlier and likely overdone. Current thinking 7-14" for my area conservatively...mixing, late capture, or dryslotting allows for the lower end.

Just saw the 6z NAM. Warm punch, failure to capture early enough. Looks like a Binghamton NY-Boston type storm. We definitely don't want that. Hoping it is an extreme outlier but have tbh....it wouldn't be the first time the NAM sniffed out something to rain on the parade with a big storm coming. Didnt like that it has trended for 3 straight runs now too without slowing down. Still a good storm here but less than 10" while everything else under the sun is 12"+. I want to toss it but in the back of my head are the handful of times prior to big events where the NAM stood alone, we shrugged it off, and it ended up having the right idea. Of course we can't just have 100% consensus for once lol.

6z RGEM is even better for SE PA than 0Z, if that is even freaking possible. 2-3' .... im going back to sleep for a few hours now lol

Euro pretty much as expected, little bit better actually. One could argue too quick a jump NW, especially on the EPS. Could almost be viewed as a red flag but don't want to cancel anyone's parade just yet. Thus why I was happy to see the UKIE SE still. I will say we are in a great spot right now in the NW burbs. I95 and 10 miles N and W are going to mix for a period. Hopefully it isnt a PD2 type mix where a large chunk was wasted on sleet and dryslotting as the fgen via h7 banding sets up a subsidence zone to the sw of the ll moisture train. Someone is going to get robbed a bit by that feature which is normal in these capturing and occluding systems while someone just W of there usually jackpots. Robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak. Regardless, good spot to be in say a line from Coatesville to Pottstown to Quakertown. Thats your jackpot zone. Let's stop the big NW jumps we saw at 0z tho. At least halt...no more big jumps.

Wrong model I confused it with 6z euro or eps. See yall in the AM. Good vibes

DC loves the UKIE

Perfect! Held serve maybe a small bump N and W.

UKIE south and east. Bullseye other side of Del River. That works. NW ticks were getting too good tbh needed them to halt.

How much farther N and W can this tuck? Or have we reached the limit and the windshield wipers will continue?

Welcome back!

It is all about the 700mb low. Right now track and development is ideal. You shouldn't need to chase far....this looks like a hometown storm.

Para is 7-14" widespread it looks like

Euro will do some extreme nonsense now like pull the slp over Vineland and dryslot all of se pa. We rarely get a model sweep unless its a miss or less than 12 hrs out.

CMC going apeshit! @Newman

Did nobody else notice the question mark shape of precip out in the Atlantic on that rgem qpf tots map @Birds~69 posted?

Closer. Much sharper PNA, better run overall.

That ? Is amazing!! CMC programmer joke?

Too much time left. It's Brady ffs

Looks like we are first and goal on the 7 yard line at the 2 min warning. Brady watching helplessly from the sideline. Game still tied at 24 a piece.

Pummeling beatdown ftmfw!!

Looks like the euro op from a few days ago. Just norther and into our region now.

Still snowing after this....storm is just barely starting to drift SE here

And per h5 on the nam the coastal is gonna be noice!