Ralph Wiggum

From a Philadelphian, I respectfully agree

At least we have the traditional cold and gloomy April pattern that we've all grown accustomed to showing on the CFS:

I was going to say a Wiggum watch is in order with temps approaching 60 next couple of days but we are entering the end of the research dates where the percentages begin to drop significantly. For those thay dont know i have an ongoing independent study since 2007 which indicates a 94.3% chance that when the temp hits 60 in my area between Dec 28 and Feb 10 the same area sees snowflakes of some sort (a storm, flurries, a mix etc) within 5 days following the recorded 60 degree temp.Would certainly make sense if we saw a few snowflakes Sunday after kissing 60 the next couple of days.

Scorching summer, handful of 100 degree days and many mid upper 90s. Hope u r ready. This will be the sacrifice we endure for the epic winter coming in 2022-2023. Mark it down and lock it up.

Thank you....not all heroes wear capes

Bring on severe season....I surrender

ICON sucks

Its over. Huge hemispheric push of warmth coming to the Arctic circle by the 20th as per the mid atl thread. Good luck re-establishing the cold air source. Im not even so sure PA sees a flake this weekend tbh....it is slipping away completely on most guidance. But I do agree finally, the blinds look like they are about to shut. Modoki Nino next year ftmfw!!!

Is this a Miller A, B, C or hybrid? Didnt see it in the thread title and no signs of fighting about it in the thread. Asking for Maestro

We just can't know. P.S. ICON sucks

Fyp

I'm right there with ya:

Congrats Delaware and extreme S NJ:

Much better look. Definitely improved. Remember we aren't talking MECS here with this event...never were. Set expectations low.

This is extremely reminiscent of every storm this winter....sharp trough trends broader, NS not as digging, stj escapes or phases just a hair late. I will be the first to congratulate @CAPE and others in the newly announced snow capital of the Mid Atl.

18z gfs says icon and nam are smoking crack cocaine

Someone refresh my memory....what is the order of forecasts upcoming? Is it first thoughts, first draft, preliminary first final guess, first guess, second thoughts, first revision and guess, second draft, second guess, final thoughts, final draft, final wheel spin, final guess, first forecast still?

Without the DGEX, we just can't know.

18z NAM look good at range

Thats an ens means qpf sir.

This looks eerily familiar. Congrats S and E of the Delaware River......again:

So since we are under 120 hrs and closer to 4 days now, I see the models have a good handle on things and are just tweaking the fringe areas now. Im certain someone posted yesterday how advanced modeling is now are there aren't major shifts and changes at this range we just entered... merely fine tuning along the fringes. Assuming this is the exception to that rule?

That's it....im relocating to N Cape May bayside.....obviously the new snow capital of the region. My parents have had well over 2' so far this season down there.

What in the mother of screwjobs is this shit:

How so? 6z only goes to 72 hrs? If anything, the euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with this event. Less NS dig, timing way off with vorticity interaction. Guess we are seeing it differently or is one of us looking at the wrong maps?