Ralph Wiggum

3-4"/hr Btw, Herpderps has the crazy banding too. Not to this extreme but already 3-7" on the ground and more to come/still snowing heavily as the run ends.

Agreed with coastal areas.

I95 will be the dividing line maybe a couple miles N and W of there. Classic setup.

Thanks Gorse My post was tongue in cheek as I have been mentioning this for a couple days. I was more caught off guard by how robust/vigorous the 3k is depicting.

Dafuq is going on here?

Euro is against most other modeling and wants nothing to do with shifting the PV farther ESE. If it ismoving, it is extremely slow. Eta: Finally moves into the GL longitude by day 9/10

I remember...our most avg storm systems of the 80s decade resembled this. Usually standard i95 dividing line, wet snow low ratios. Type of system news outlets used to (and still do?) start with 1-3" then start nudging upward. Like a few of us suggested, not a massive upside. Seems with these systems a 10" lolli is generally the highest end. Guess we'll see.

CRAS is a pummeling. Came N and W

Any time you start seeing hints of the PV just to our NW start trying to break off lobes or try and interact with other waves to the South, that is a signal for potentially a larger scale storm/event for someone. Will be a fun week watching where the PV goes and how it interacts. Makes for challenging forecasting over the next 3-10 days at least. If we are ever going to get a bigger event sneak up, this is the time.

Those upper air looks the ICON is spitting out for next week are NSFW.

RGEM ftw!

It will be a quick mover. These are one of our most common setups for snow around here. Wave forms along baroclinic wave left behind from this AM's departing system. Not saying it can't overachiever but in general thru the years I've seen these trailing waves drop a solid thump with the f gen banding then usually just lightly accumulating snow behind that also zips out quickly. These systems are textbook...minor warning event. The very high end is probably a 5-10" for whoever gets under the best lift and has ratios....which will be a challenge in and along I 95. Just figuring out the snow axis still seems the challenge moving forward. Eta: the higher probability for better ratios and accums would likely favor similar areas that got hit last week in E PA. Probably will move our snow depth maps progressively farther S and E over the next 10 days btw

NAM 10:1 ratios likely overdone but waiting on rest of 12z. Have a suspicion this will be a 3-6" event up here when all is said and done. Has that 'normal' winter weather event look for a change with no bells and whistles etc

NAM coming in more amped, stronger SS wave.

Euro came NW at 6z. The EPS has an i95 bullseye. 12z Euro the biggest model run since (fill in the blank)

Back to rain now with the lighter precip. Appears we will end with .6" new snow.

Moderate snow. .5" new accumulation of snow on snow. No accum on roads.

3k is sick. Nw, amped, and aggressive banding. I am starting to see a better looking NS vort and some more interaction with both NS and SS vorts with each passing run. This was really close to being a properly timed phasing SECS+.....probably a quick mover regardless but could still drop some thumpage for a while in parts of this region.

Brrrr Aside from these lows night of the 13th, GFS doesn't get out of the low single digits in SE PA on Valentine's Day. Two straight nights solidly below zero for majority of the state of PA. We know it wont verify this cold but damn.

Sign me up! I didnt expect guidance to grab this one and run with it tbh. Went from a thread the needle to a hold my beer event. Im still skeptical given the BL but if rates are to be believed on the NAM (I cant believe I would even suggest such a thing) then this one might actually work.

The Great Wentzadelphia Saint Valentine's Day 2021 Blizzard of 96 Redux. Now THAT'S a name!

Euro took a healthier system a jump N.

CRAS also came NW fwiw...probably not much

Euro

NAVGEM is a hit. Nice jump NW.