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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    Idk. It’s a really bizarre evolution on the NAM. Not sure what to make of it.
  2. CT Rain
    The soundings and 2M temps off the NAM are definitely not what I’d expect for a low near ISP. What a pasting around here. I can’t recall an evolution like that IMBY.
  3. CT Rain
    6-10" when it's 34 or 35F in Mansfield as this model shows would be something. Again.... clown maps and clown ptype algorithms can lead you to dark places. The inverted trough trend today should be a big caution flag for CT/RI outside of the NW Hills.
  4. CT Rain
    actually that's during the meat of it. I do think there's some longitude assist in play here south of the Pike.
  5. CT Rain
    Yeah looks good up your way!
  6. CT Rain
    Eh?
  7. CT Rain
    It's funny that the clown map brigade is convinced 1-2 feet for most is a good bet.
  8. CT Rain
    Beware the clown maps.
  9. CT Rain
    Just saw the GFS. Jesus.
  10. CT Rain
    High res op run may be picking up on some cyclogenesis along the inverted trough a bit better than the coarser ensembles but it is nice to see things consolidate pretty quickly. The 12z Euro soundings were pretty warm here in the BL. Hopefully we can work on that a bit in later runs.
  11. CT Rain
    That's a nice look on the EPS overall. Still worried about some warming initially here a bit farther south but can't complain much.
  12. CT Rain
    Yeah I think the "dual low" thing isn't really worth tossing. It's just a reflection of surface pressure falls along the inverted trough prior to full phase/capture. So even if the low isn't as distinct in reality that E/SE flow ahead of the inverted trough will do some damage to the BL.
  13. CT Rain
    lol you're not wrong. I do think that even the "good" looking tracks are going to have issues here in the valley with a pretty torched BL. Going to be a needle threader. Feel better for W CT though as it looks like the congrats ALB scenario is less likely.
  14. CT Rain
    Well I'm not that certain. The Euro is still torched in the boundary layer and verbatim is a lot of rain out of the hills.
  15. CT Rain
    Starting to get more bullish here in CT. The tucked trend has slowed or even reversed. Not much cold air to work with but may be just enough given the very well timed bombing/occlusion to bring the heavy stuff here.
  16. CT Rain
    How we pray. Jeez.
  17. CT Rain
    Verbatim GFS is a deck destroyer here. Sure does thread the effing needle though.
  18. CT Rain
    lol
  19. CT Rain
    Those clown maps off the GFS are hilarious... especially considering the models cold bias and how the soundings look verbatim.
  20. CT Rain
    Parachutes in West Hartford and rain in Tolland? Sign me up.
  21. CT Rain
    The NAM has the "look" at H84 lol
  22. CT Rain
    12km is very warm in the boundary layer.
  23. CT Rain
    Selfishly I don't mind a somewhat earlier bombing south of Long Island.
  24. CT Rain
    You just texted 6-10"
  25. CT Rain
    GFS is nice for many. Definitely a step toward the Euro.
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