yoda

Thats what wusa9.com is reporting fwiw

Sources say they are all accounted for and will be alright

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 949 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track across southern Virginia tonight. High pressure will build across the central and eastern U.S. through the first half of next week. Another frontal system and area of low pressure may approach late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Snow has begun across far western areas based on sfc obs at 2G4. In addition, the snowfall rate satellite produdct from a MetOp-C pass at 0155Z indicated that snow was falling aloft across northern MD and VA west of US-29 at that time, but was still not reaching the ground yet per sfc obs. The wetbulb zero height on the 00Z IAD sounding was only 740 feet indicating the p-type should be snow here once precip makes it to the ground. While the fcst remains generally on track, there are some p-type issues across the southern half and southeastern portions of the CWA where sfc obs and model fields show a pressure trough/wind shift from NE to SE. This sfc trough/wind shift line currently lies along US-29. While the winds should shift overnight around as low pressure passes to the south, there air is still mild in those areas with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Low level temps and thicknesses in those areas support more rain than snow especially across southern MD, Charlottesville, and Fredericksburg. Believe snow totals in those areas are more than likely to be on the lower end of the range or even less with more rain than snow. As previous fcstr mentioned, there could be multiple snow bands that develop across the region overnight. Latest model output continue to suggest this with one band setting up across southern Pennsylvania and another one setting up across northern VA into central MD with a minima in QPF across northern MD east of Cumberland and across the eastern WV panhandle. The snow should end no later than 12Z Saturday everywhere.

Mesoscale Discussion 0148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Areas affected...The Upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170040Z - 170445Z SUMMARY...A swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected to spread east across the upper Ohio River Valley into the central Appalachians through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, a semi-persistent band of moderate to heavy snow has shifted east across the Midwest and middle OH River Valley. Surface observations and web cams under this band have shown visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile at times, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Snowfall reports over the past 1-3 hours support this idea with multiple reports of 3-5 inch snowfall totals since early afternoon. Recent upper-air analyses continue to show favorable overlap of broad synoptic ascent ahead of the approaching low-amplitude upper wave with a more focused zone of mesoscale ascent driven by a plume of warm advection and frontogenesis within the 925-850 mb layer. Favorable phasing of these mechanisms is expected to persist for the next several as the synoptic system shifts east towards the Mid-Atlantic. Consequently, organized snow bands capable of heavy snowfall rates upwards of 1-2 inch/hour will remain possible across the upper OH River Valley into the central Appalachian region for the next several hours. Locations downstream that are currently not below freezing may see a slightly delayed onset of snowfall as low-level saturation promotes temperature reductions below freezing. Furthermore, orographic ascent within the Appalachians may augment lift over eastern WV/western VA and increase the potential for 2+ inch/hour snowfall rates during the 04-06 UTC period. ..Moore.. 02/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LMK...

Zoomed in close up

@Deck Pic slightly drier 00z Euro QPF looks like? Noise I assume

00z UKIE FWIW

Pivotal 10:1 says Wes wins

We definitely love the GFS tonight

The new thread will be the obs thread

Great, now all I can think is Pirates of the Carribean... Hoist the colours!

I do like the bolded though Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 907 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-508-526-527-WVZ051>053- 161100- District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Wintergreen, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 907 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... Snow will overspread the area from west to east Friday evening and exit Saturday morning. Generally one to three inches of snow is expected at this time. Localized totals upwards of four to six inches are possible wherever the bands of snow set up. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible in these bands. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel Friday night into Saturday morning.

Is that 0.50 QPF in DC metro? I'm trying to differentiate the colors

They replaced it with another SPS

18z Euro is just about at its money frame...

Probably going WWA shortly

The erh map is the best ever

10:1 snow map FWIW on 18z RGEM

18z RGEM is a i66 special going by qpf field

Afternoon AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 217 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ... .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Very brief high pressure quickly traverses the area on Friday, bringing dry conditions for the daytime hours. Highs expected to reach the 30s in the Alleghenies, and 40s to low 50s elsewhere. A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track along or near the I-64 corridor in the southern 1/3rd of the CWA Friday tonight into Saturday morning. This system is going to bring widespread snow to most of the forecast area, with rain likely in areas south of the low`s track. The 12Z guidance continues to trend upwards with QPF and forecast snow amounts, with favorable dynamics for banding and high snow rates. Temps aloft are expected to be cold to support snow throughout the event. The highest snow amounts are likely in the Alleghenies and where any banding features develop (which at this point is difficult to pin down). In the Alleghenies, forecast snow amounts of 4-6" with isolated higher amounts up to 8" possible. Elsewhere, forecast snow amounts of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-5" possible. The Blue Ridge could see 2-5" of snow. Again, those higher end amounts are going to depend on where snow bands set up. The Winter Weather Watches remain for the Alleghenies and parts of the Potomac Highlands where confidence is high for 4-6" of snow. Winter Weather Advisories will likely be issued for most of the rest of the area tonight, as that will be around 24 hours before snow falls late Friday night. Stay tuned to the latest updates at weather.gov/lwx/winter. Precipitation ends from west to east Saturday morning, with any lingering light snow east of I-95 ending by late morning. Mountain snow showers continue through the afternoon. High pressure builds in Saturday afternoon as dry conditions prevail. Temperatures quickly rebound to the 30s to low 40s outside of the mountains, which should allow a good/most of the snow on the ground to melt. Temperatures Saturday night drop to 20s, with 10s for the mountains.

2pm update

It's showing blue... so...

I don't see the reason for it... but it's @Deck Pic thread then

Above quoted is hr 42 at DCA sounding. Below is hr 48 sounding at DCA

I mean that's DCA at 06z. Sounding is firmly below freezing at every level and 32 at surface... so I have no idea why rain is considered the best guess precip type. It has freezing rain at 48 hours as it's best guess precip type too. Very odd