yoda

Wow... very sad

I know it's in the SE forum... but parts of GA and AL got hit hard today... reports of at least 22 dead in Lee County Alabama from two tornadoes

Lol The 850 0c line clearly moved SE along with the snow line

3km NAM is real close to all snow for DCA

Hmmm

A bit better for the region this run... you can see it at the 850 level

18z NAM a bit slower than 12z fwiw

06z NAM looks slightly better than 00z... keeps up the slow push south ETA: I guess it depends on where you live tbh on if the run was slightly better or worse

FWIW, 06z NAM has snow starting around 16z SUN at DCA... looks like some mod snow at 17z and 18z

WSWs came to about the BR... and across N MD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 255 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 VAZ026-027-029>031-040-501-503>505-507-WVZ506-021600- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0006.190303T1200Z-190304T1200Z/ Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Western Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Eastern Pendleton- 255 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible Sunday and Sunday night. Total snow accumulations of 5 or more inches are possible Sunday and Sunday night. * WHERE...Portions of northern and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult Sunday and Sunday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

12z EPS from earlier today at 72 00z EPS at 60 from tonights run

FWIW, EPS mean shifted SE by a good margin. Around 32 of the 50 members get the 2" marker through DCA. There are about 8 or so that get the 6" marker nearby

Surprised @Ji isn't all over tonights euro

FV3 is probably more in the other camp... its snow to light rain at the end

Looks like 0c 850 line gets near DCA at 48 and 54... but stays just SE on 00z UKMET

Will know in about 5 minutes

00z CMC made a SE move

But its snow

Hr 54 Ji... ending as light rain. 48 is snowing hard

Sounding at DCA at 48 and 54 on TT are entirely below zero except for last 50m or so... so I would assume it's likely going to be snow

1004mb SLP E NC at 51 1000mb SLP just offshore VA/NC border at 54 996mb SLP about 150 miles east of Ocean City at 57

1008mb SLP near ATL at 45