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Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Strong shear associated with an upper-level trough off the southeast U.S. coast continues to affect Jerry, and the low-level center is exposed to the west-southwest of the main convective mass. Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the intensity remains near 55 kt. However, if the current sheared state persists, then a weakening trend is likely to commence soon. For now, the official forecast will only show a very slow weakening over the next few days. This prediction is somewhat higher than the intensity model consensus. It should be noted that experience has shown that tropical cyclones at subtropical latitudes tend to be more resilient to shear than those in the deep tropics. Jerry has slowed its forward speed and is now moving north- northwestward at around 6 kt. The storm will continue passing through a break in the subtropical ridge through tonight. On Tuesday, a trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast will cause Jerry to turn northward. Within a couple of days, the trough should steer the tropical cyclone northeastward at a faster forward speed. In days 3-5, Jerry should move east-northeastward to eastward while embedded in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 28.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 29.2N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 30.4N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 31.8N 67.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 33.3N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 35.8N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 37.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...JERRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 68.0W ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 68.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion should continue today. A turn to the north is expected tonight followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB classification was a little higher. Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is located within a generally favorable environment for intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt. Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is based heavily on HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 24.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest is expected starting tonight, and this is forecast to continue through the middle of the week. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Sounds like NHC decided to not drop Karen at 11 but keep it a TC based off the disco

Looks like it's going to end up being a major fish hurricane recurving way out in the Atlantic

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization. In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday. Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Triple phase LMAO

DO NOT WANT BOLDED BELOW... from this afternoon's AFD from LWX... I cut out the portion before the LONG TERM

Also because the upper air environment and upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave gets to near the Caribbean Sea

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Data from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Jerry is weakening quickly, and radar images from NOAA show no sign of the eyewall reported on the last mission. Maximum flight-level winds on the mission were about 78 kt, with SFMR values near 70 kt, and the central pressure has risen about 10 mb overnight. These observations also agree with the latest satellite imagery that shows a less organized cyclone, with the center on the far northwestern edge of a distorted central dense overcast. A blend of all these data gives an initial wind speed estimate of 75 kt. Jerry is moving about the same as before, west-northwestward at 15 kt. The hurricane should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a weakening subtropical ridge. The guidance is tightly packed on the forecast through Monday, and little change was made to the previous NHC prediction. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough interaction should turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but the models are really struggling on how quickly this occurs. While yesterday much of the guidance had Jerry accelerating ahead of the trough, today's models have slowed everything down as the trough looks like it could weaken before fully recurving the cyclone. The new track forecast is considerably slower than the last one beyond 72 hours, about as much as continuity allows, and later forecasts could slow Jerry down even more. Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or two, and some weakening is expected. The intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, and could be a bit too high in the short term given recent trends. In a few days, the aforementioned trough interaction is anticipated, but it is next to impossible to know at this lead time whether the trough will weaken or strengthen the cyclone, so no forecast change is made. It is a little tempting to raise the intensity by the end, given the recent weaker mid-latitude trough in the models, but there's just too much track uncertainty to mess with the intensity forecast at this time. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 18.8N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.6N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.9N 64.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.3N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 23.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Still a cane at 11 am BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY WEAKER BUT HEAVY RAINS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 60.3W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF BARBUDA ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM ENE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12-24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Jerry is a compact hurricane on satellite imagery with the central dense overcast becoming more symmetric during the past few hours. Before the Air Force plane departed, the crew recorded 700-mb flight-level winds of 97 kt and SFMR winds of about 70 kt, suggesting maximum winds of about 75 kt. Since that time, an eye feature has been noted on the last-light visible images, indicating that the earlier intensification has probably continued. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, and the next aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jerry around 0000 UTC to obtain a better estimate. The hurricane still has some time to strengthen before northwesterly shear increases by tomorrow morning. The shear increase will also probably allow some environmental dry air to be entrained into the central core and help weaken the cyclone. Thus weakening is anticipated by late tomorrow continuing into Saturday. Some re-strengthening is possible early next week as Jerry could find a lower shear region due to a mid-latitude trough interaction. The new NHC wind speed prediction has not changed too much, but is a little higher at longer range to reflect the above possibility. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Jerry should continue to steer the hurricane at about the same direction and speed during the next day or two. The models have generally trended a bit to the north on this cycle at short range, and the official forecast follows suit. Thereafter, Jerry is forecast to move around the then-weakening ridge, turning to the northwest on Saturday, north-northwest on Sunday, and then northward and north- northeastward by Monday/Tuesday. The guidance has moved to the northeast at longer range on this cycle, possibly due to a stronger mid-latitude trough helping to weaken the ridge. The NHC forecast is adjusted to the northeast on this advisory, although is still on the western side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.5N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 18.4N 57.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.5N 60.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.7N 63.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.9N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 24.9N 68.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 28.0N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 33.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Bermuda looks to take a direct hit from Jerry on Day 5 per the current track... forecast to be a CAT 1 at that time

BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near 65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt. Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to the previous forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from the last NHC prediction. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close to the center. In addition, microwave data show that the central structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative side of the intensity estimates. The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving over very warm waters with light shear. Dropsondes from the NOAA G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near term. By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which seems likely to cause some weakening. At long range, Jerry is likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously difficult to forecast. Only small changes were made to the previous wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the various consensus aids. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering current. This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days, taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward Islands. Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 50.5W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten. Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 50.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center. While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived ASCAT-C scatterometer pass. Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear. While this type of environment could support even more strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification rates for now. This forecast leans heavier on the regional hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models. Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and the shear could become somewhat strong by next week. While little change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the environmental factors become more clear. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF model and the corrected-consensus forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be issued for a portion of this area this afternoon or evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.4N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 20.5N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.3N 69.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 49.2W ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be issued this afternoon or evening. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake