yoda

Just me, or does Day 10 (as usual on the Euro lol) have potential?

Might be a stupid question... but does the end of the week system up in SNE affect our chance of snow down here at the beginning of next week? Case in point the 12z Euro crushes parts of the NE... would that make the threat for us less or more? Or is there no affect at all?

12z CMC has snowfall for the northern third of the LWX CWA... but its a late Tuesday into Wednesday "event" next week instead of the Monday/Tuesday the other models are showing

FWIW, 12z ICON at the very end of its run has some snow falling in SW VA/S WV area moving NE... 1-2" down there at the very end of its run... so possibly on board with GFS and EURO

Wes jackpots on the 12z GFS

LWX is no longer issuing Freeze Warnings for anyone in the CWA until next Spring... saying growing season is over for all

Yay models are back to being an hour earlier Looks like 00z EURO says just kidding about the snow (@weathafella mentioned it already in the SNE forum)

Is it just me... or this would look good come December?

Get that N Plains HP here faster or farther east and we're good

I like the large sprawling 1046mb HP in the Plains at 144 on the 12z EURO... hopefully we get more of those this winter. 850 temp analomies range from -5 to -15 late next week

DC and BWI and IAD all under Freeze Warnings for tonight... if they don't hit 32 tonight, they probably will tomorrow night @WxUSAF better get those charts ready lol

Freeze Warnings up for tonight for DC/BALT metros and BR east URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 917 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ036-037-052>057- 505-506-020500- /O.UPG.KLWX.FZ.A.0002.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0002.191102T0600Z-191102T1300Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 917 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, northern and southern Maryland and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing.

Mystics will go back to back

Sigh PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1103 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1049 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NW GAITHERSBURG 39.16N 77.23W 10/31/2019 MONTGOMERY MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE CAR STRANDED IN HIGH WATER ON GAME PRESERVE ROAD NEAR GREAT SENECA CREEK.

That sucks... hope you get it back quickly

FFW for central Montgomery County... especially near Seneca Creek

Rotation down by Triangle/Quantico I believe

Looks hooky down by Falmouth ETA: Just as I say that... STW pops up and reports from EM of numerous trees down in Spotsylvania county

STW for Eastern Montgomery and Howard counties till 945pm

ENH remains... tor probs dropped to 5%... still 45% wind though

TW NE Louisa County

STW up for Montgomery and Howard counties in MD

Watching down by the EZF and Orange/Culpepper/Faquiuer county area... just got warned and zooming NE at 75mph

TOG in Mecklenburg County Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 759 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 VAC117-010030- /O.CON.KAKQ.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-191101T0030Z/ Mecklenburg VA- 759 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR WESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY... At 757 PM EDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line extending from Buffalo Springs to near Clarksville, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. These tornadic storms will be near... Chase City and Boydton around 815 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Fairview, Nelson, Rogers Corner, Spanish Grove, Buffalo Junction, Finchley, Finneywood, Baskerville, Skipwith and John H Kerr Reservoir. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3657 7873 3658 7872 3664 7871 3667 7870 3668 7870 3669 7868 3669 7865 3664 7858 3664 7856 3670 7865 3683 7855 3688 7848 3669 7825 3654 7857 3654 7873 TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 237DEG 46KT 3663 7865 3661 7863 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN

Really? That seems... surprising