yoda

He's a warminsta weenie in the SNE forum... and used to change his avatar daily

Almost looks like we dryslot at 84 on 12z GFS lol

FWIW, seems like 12z GFS has a bit more of a south push than 06z... so maybe a bit better run for some of us in regards to frozen precip

Looks decent even into the i95 corridor tbh... not as bad as west of the BR... but 12z and 15z SAT temps at DCA are at 26 degrees

00z GFS laughs at us again for next weekend... coastal comes... but no cold air

I'll take the 00z CMC and run with it... snow to ice to dryslot just in time

Yeah, I just figured that out It drops a quick burst of snow... then we all go to ice for quite a while. DCA sits at 32 at 03z SUN and is like 34 by 06z SUN as the precip shuts off/dryslots

Actually, ICON is pretty icy... even into the i95 corridor. 2mT are below 32 for most... even upper 20s i81 corridor at 120

Plus seems a bit slower... almost looks like no one is getting frozen this run besides the usual far N and W

I thought the GFS/GEFS were pretty good at 12z and 18z

1044 HP in prime position at 18z 102... was 1042 at 12z 96

HP is slightly stronger at 90 on 18z GFS... can def see more of a push south compared to 12z at 84 ETA: Def can see it at 96 -- snowing in STL on 18z GFS where at 12z GFS it was sleet/freezing rain

Now this is some irony -- https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/01/all-star-notes-vasilevskiy-letang-pwhpa.html

See below

12z CMC at 120 has mod-heavy snow at DCA/IAD/BWI and down towards EZF as well

DCA is 25 degrees at 12z SAT per 12z GFS sounding

I want to say that the 12z GFS should be incrementally better for our region again... note that the HP is 1-2mb stronger than 06z GFS and in a bit better position through 96

Are we back in Roman times? 202 A.D.? Sorry, had to lol

2 more STWs issued by LWX tonight

0z GEFS looks fine to me

Rotation marker in the line near Reston

First catch of the season BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1143 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... Orange County in central Virginia... Southeastern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Culpeper County in northern Virginia... Western Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 1230 AM EST. * At 1143 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles north of Culpeper to near Orange to 8 miles northwest of Boswells Tavern, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Culpeper, Orange, Bealeton, Gordonsville, Opal, Remington, Catlett, Calverton, Midland, Brandy Station, Barboursville, Verdiersville, Casanova, Montpelier Station, Locust Grove, Thornhill, Winston, Madison Mills, Montford and Cardova. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

I thought it was for a STWatch

Watch possible per latest MCD