yoda

@high risk Pretty decent sounding from the 18z NAM for 21z tomorrow at KIAD, no?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Des Moines IA 438 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Marshall County in central Iowa... * Until 500 PM CDT. * At 437 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over State Center, or 12 miles west of Marshalltown, moving north at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a rotating wall cloud at 435pm between Marshalltown and State Center. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Marshall County, including the following locations... Clemons and Liscomb.

Also, radar confirmed TOG near Algoa, AR Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 423 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ARC031-111-282145- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200328T2145Z/ Craighead AR-Poinsett AR- 423 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN POINSETT COUNTIES... At 423 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Algoa, or 9 miles southeast of Newport, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Weiner, Cash, Waldenburg, Pitts, Risher, Uno, Otwell and Bayou De View State Wildlife Management Area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3569 9104 3582 9091 3567 9073 3550 9104 TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 225DEG 33KT 3556 9109 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...<.75IN

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 424 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ARC067-282145- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-200328T2145Z/ Jackson AR- 424 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY... At 423 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Algoa, or 10 miles southeast of Newport, moving northeast at 40 mph. Radar detected a debris lofted ten thousand feet in the air in northeastern Jackson County near Balch. If you are near this storm, seek shelter immediately! Radar indicates a large and damaging tornado in the area. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Grubbs... Amagon... Balch... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris

Uh... radar detected 10k foot debris ball near Balch, AR...

Blackville (yes, that's the city name) looks to take a direct hit from that storm

Wall cloud reported by spotters near Mitchellville in IA BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Des Moines IA 410 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Story County in central Iowa... Southwestern Marshall County in central Iowa... Northwestern Jasper County in central Iowa... * Until 445 PM CDT. * At 409 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Colfax, or 11 miles northeast of Altoona, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a wall cloud near or just northeast of Mitchellville cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Baxter around 420 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Valeria, Rhodes, Mingo and Melbourne. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Mod risk remains at 20z

Tor probs are 90/80

Decent size PDS TOR watch box

PDS TOR watch issued

Afternoon AFD from LWX:

1730 SPC OTLK from day 2 has all of us in 2/5/5... mentions supercells with all hazards possible but conditional threat... here is the disco for our region:

Well that was a wake up call... falling asleep after waiting for the new Day 1 OTLK and loud rumble of thunder just shook the house Guess these are elevated boomers... but some nice lightning strikes outside right now too

30% hatched hail is JUST south of Chicago metro

Severe Thunderstorm Warning ILC013-MOC113-139-183-219-280500- /O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0023.200328T0420Z-200328T0500Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service St Louis MO 1120 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Calhoun County in southwestern Illinois... Northwestern St. Charles County in east central Missouri... Southeastern Lincoln County in east central Missouri... East central Montgomery County in east central Missouri... Central Warren County in east central Missouri... * Until midnight CDT. * At 1120 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Jonesburg, moving east at 55 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...Three inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... O`Fallon, St. Peters, Wentzville, Lake St. Louis, Dardenne Prairie, Troy, Warrenton, Wright City, Cottleville, St. Paul, Moscow Mills, Winfield, Jonesburg, Truesdale, Innsbrook, Josephville, Fountain N` Lakes, Chain of Rocks, Harvester and Flint Hill. This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between exits 179 and 224. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3874 9136 3889 9138 3902 9058 3875 9058 TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 261DEG 49KT 3882 9124 HAIL...3.00IN WIND...60MPH

Quite a history of 3 inch hail with it seems as well ETA: Also moving east at 60mph per the latest SWS... trucking right along

I would bet SPC keeps the mod risk for the 0600 DAY 1 OTLK. Probably ratchets up the wording a bit and perhaps mentions potential to upgrade... but IMO can't see HIGH being issued till later in the morning i.e. the 1300 OTLK if there is going to be one

3 inch hail reported by spotters in Jefferson City, MO

disco talks about giant hail possible

Looks like our first chance in a while of some thunderstorms, maybe even an isolated severe threat is on Sunday afternoon

Reading the AFD tonight makes me think we will be seeing alot of rain over the next few weeks... talks of potential flooding too. Hope we can get some good storms as well

Sorry to hear that... that really sucks We're currently fighting with OSSE and Fairfax to get paid for our school after this month. We are a private therapeutic day school, level 5 school. We basically get all of the DC kids that they can't teach in regular schools - special education and others... and all of the VA kids we have are ones who got kicked out of regular school and sent to us as a last stop before being sent to residential. We've sent work home to the kids (nearly 100 in total) in the past two weeks and are preparing to do so again to prove that we are still teaching the kids even if not online. I hope your wife is able to find something quickly

I'm betting they'll join VA or at least close through mid-May at earliest... @mappy had tweeted that they are meeting tomorrow to discuss it

I expect Maryland to follow suit or be closed till sometime in May... NC schools are closed through May 15th