yoda

Nope... "capable of producing a tornado" per latest update

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 712 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Ottawa County in northwestern Ohio... Erie County in north central Ohio... Northeastern Sandusky County in northwestern Ohio... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 711 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Port Clinton and Vickery, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. This storm has a history of producing funnel clouds and potential tornado damage. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Sandusky, Port Clinton, Northern Milan, Castalia, Marblehead, Bay View, Whites Landing, Bloomingville, Sandusky South, Vickery and Fairview Lanes.

Storms in OH are packing a punch with 2" hail and confirmed tornadoes

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Cleveland OH 704 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 OHC123-143-152315- /O.COR.KCLE.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230615T2315Z/ Ottawa OH-Sandusky OH- 704 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR OTTAWA AND NORTHEASTERN SANDUSKY COUNTIES... At 703 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Oak Harbor, or 7 miles north of Fremont, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. At 656 PM, emergency management reported a tornado along the Sandusky and Ottawa County line near state route 19. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Port Clinton, Oak Harbor, Whites Landing and Vickery. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

LWX still likes tomorrow per afternoon AFD .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Closed 500 mb low will be moving across Pennsylvania Friday and help trigger additional showers and thunderstorms with muliple rounds of showers/t-storms expected. As opposed to last Monday, this time mid-level lapse rates look significantly steeper and cloud cover thinner with plenty of heating contributing to moderately unstable conditions. Risk of severe wx looks greater than last Monday particularly east of I-95. Convection is likely to persist well into the evening over eastern areas, but the severe threat is likely to wane quickly after 7PM.

Yes please to the CanSIPS

Interested in what kind of watches are issued. As the MCD says, it will be a tornado watch. However, with winds likely over 80 mph (I'm guess text will say to 90mph and hail to 4" in diameter)... could they go PDS just to cover everything even though no violent tornadoes are likely?

MRGL risk pushed back west to i81 corridor on 1730z SPC OTLK. SLGT risk for i95 corridor and east to the Delmarva introduced

SPC moved the ENH and MOD risks further into TX on the 1630z OTLK Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM WESTERN OK AND VICINITY INTO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms associated with giant hail (larger than 3-4 inches in diameter), intense wind damage (greater than 80 mph) and a few tornadoes are expected from mid afternoon into tonight across western and southern Oklahoma into north and northeast Texas. ...Southern Plains this afternoon through tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving east-northeastward across northern NM as of late morning, and in response to this wave weak lee cyclogenesis is underway across northeast NM/southeast CO. This will help draw rich low-level moisture northwestward through the afternoon, with mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints reaching western OK/eastern TX Panhandle, and low-mid 70s farther southeast into northwest and north TX. The moistening is occurring beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km, which will contribute to extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) this afternoon/evening along the warm front and east of the dryline. Severe storm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along the dryline from the TX Panhandle into southwest KS, with subsequent development on the dryline into northwest TX. The extreme buoyancy, steep lapse rates and very long hodographs will all be quite favorable for intense supercells capable of producing giant hail (3-4 inches in diameter or greater). Despite modestly high temperature-dewpoint spreads (20 to 25 F) initially, a gradual increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature will support some tornado threat late this afternoon/evening. As storms spread eastward this evening, upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely, with an increasing threat for swaths of intense gusts in excess of 80 mph. The corridor of the most intense storms is expected across western/southern and parts of central OK, as well as north TX. Thus, the ENH/MDT risk areas have been expanded southward and southeastward into TX to reflect both the high-end hail threat with the initial supercells, and a high-end wind threat with any late evening/overnight storm clusters.

Even the morning AFD from LWX is intriguing .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As the mid-energy pivots across the northern half of our region on Friday, additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop. The amount of any sunshine Friday morning and midday will make a difference on how intense Friday afternoon thunderstorms become when they develop and move east. As of now, SPC has the eastern two-thirds of our CWA in a Marginal Risk of thunderstorms. A weak surface cold front will aid in the lift of convection with the biggest threats from stronger thunderstorms being strong wind gusts and hail (due to steep low-level lapse rates and moderate shear). Moderate shear profiles in our region could get the strongest thunderstorms rotating into supercells. &&

But mentioned isolated supercells in its discussion too. Only game in town probably for a while... let's get that upgrade to SLGT lol

There's a report of 5"+ hail from earlier this afternoon in MS in the SPC database

Never seen the bolded in a warning before BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Little Rock AR 627 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The National Weather Service in Little Rock has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Cleveland County in southeastern Arkansas... Northeastern Clark County in southwestern Arkansas... Grant County in central Arkansas... Northeastern Dallas County in southwestern Arkansas... Southeastern Garland County in central Arkansas... Southeastern Saline County in central Arkansas... Hot Spring County in southwestern Arkansas... * Until 715 PM CDT. * At 625 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rockport, or over Malvern, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR THE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING POLYGON, FALLING HAIL CAN BE DEADLY; TAKE COVER NOW! THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS! . HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Benton... Hot Springs Village... Malvern... Sheridan... Haskell... Rockport... Traskwood... Leola... Tull... Carthage... Prattsville... Poyen... Perla... Lonsdale... Cane Creek... Jenkins Ferry State Park... Orion... Thiel... Dogwood... Donaldson... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3423 9307 3463 9291 3448 9221 3395 9244 TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 280DEG 34KT 3439 9284 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

Just fix everything in the radar

Gotten a little bit breezy outside

Whens the last time we saw a PDS STW?

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and northern Alabama * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are expected to form through the afternoon across central Alabama, and an additional storm cluster will move east-southeastward from northern Mississippi. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms, including very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, damaging outflow gusts up to 80 mph, and a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong). The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Tuscaloosa AL to 10 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 289...WW 290... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Thompson https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0291.html

Tornado Watch just went up for a good portion of Alabama 60/30 tor probs, 80/70 wind, 70/60 hail

@George BM would enjoy the 18z GFS

Afternoon AFD from LWX hints at maybe a non zero tor threat The aforementioned area of low pressure lifts and occludes into southeastern Ontario, with a cold front draped southward through the southeastern CONUS. The cold front is expected to traverse the region during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures reaching the mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s should provide plenty of instability for thunderstorms to develop. This, paired with at least 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear, could bring some severe thunderstorms to the region during this time. Gusty winds would be the primary threat with these storms. Will have to watch the areas around the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River for any small variations in surface winds however, as this may provide just enough localized shear to produce a brief spin-up. This is a low- probability scenario, but something worth mentioning.

What exactly is a "dirty area of high pressure" that the afternoon AFD from LWX mentions in the long term? Does that mean like hot and humid weather comes out of it?

I'm craving just a good thunderstorm right now

Just so everyone knows... BWI has reached 97 already