yoda

Quick heavy rain showers here right now

ML Lapse Rates are nice too... some 8C/KM showing up

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Bret threw some interesting data at us during the couple of hours after the release of the previous advisory. On the last pass of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through Bret's center, the plane measured SFMR winds as high as 69 kt and a dropsonde surface pressure of 996 mb with 31 kt of wind. Significant mid-level westerly shear is still affecting the system, and a 0539 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed a well-defined mid-level eye feature displaced about a degree to the east of Bret's low-level center. It appears that the strong SFMR winds were measured beneath the strong convection in the western mid-level eyewall feature, so it's possible that they were transient and convectively driven. That said, Bret's initial intensity was raised to 60 kt on the 2 am intermediate advisory out of an abundance of caution, and that remains the current estimate. Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Bret in a few hours and will hopefully confirm whether or not the storm is still producing winds that strong. Vertical shear is expected to gradually increase over the next couple of days as Bret approaches an upper-level trough located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The storm could maintain its intensity or fluctuate in intensity through much of today, but it is expected to begin weakening by tonight once it crosses the Lesser Antilles and moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Global model fields indicate that Bret should degenerate into a trough over the central Caribbean Sea by day 3, which is shown in the official forecast. There are no changes in the track forecast reasoning. Bret is moving toward the west, or 280/13 kt, steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. An accelerated westward motion is expected during the next few days as Bret weakens, and the NHC track forecast is a little faster than the consensus aids, hedging toward the faster GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded that NHC's track forecasts have average errors of about 40 n mi at 24 hours, and there is risk of strong winds and heavy rainfall for several islands within the Lesser Antilles regardless of exactly where the center crosses the island chain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles today and then move across those islands this evening and tonight as a strong tropical storm. 2. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for St. Lucia, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Martinique and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Additional watches or warnings are possible for some islands in the Lesser Antilles later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 13.7N 56.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 13.9N 58.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.1N 61.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 14.6N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 Satellite images and earlier satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the central Atlantic now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The depression has a partially exposed low-level center with a small area of deep convection to its west. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving just north of west or 280/9 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn to the west-northwest and accelerate on the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next few days. After that time, the depression is forecast to turn northwestward towards a weakness in the ridge east of the Leeward Islands. The model guidance is fairly well-clustered, and the NHC official forecast lies near the model consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening over the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so. Beyond 72 h, global models agree the vertical wind shear should increase significantly and weaken the cyclone. The NHC intensity prediction starts out conservatively and is near lower end of the guidance envelope, most similar to the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 11.3N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 12.0N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 13.1N 47.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.5N 50.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 16.0N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.6N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 20.9N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 23.3N 64.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 41.1W ABOUT 1395 MI...2240 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 41.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to increase with a turn toward the northwest during the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to remain east of the northern Leeward Islands through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Morning's AFD from LWX regarding Monday sounds tasty By Monday, a trough digging across the Great Lakes and Midwest will pivot toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Height falls and DCVA ahead of the trough, modest diffluence aloft in the right entrance region of a neutral to slight negative tilt upper trough, and low- level convergence along and ahead of an associated surface cold front will likely trigger showers and at least scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The 00Z GFS/CMC/UKMET all show mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km (though note the 00z ECMWF is weaker around 6.5.7 C/km) attendant to a remnant EML plume. These values are noteworthy for this part of the country in late June, perhaps an indication of heightened potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Additionally, 850-500 hPa winds of 30-40 kts with some low-level veering may lend to both low and deep layer shear, which would aid thunderstorm organization. Timing and strength differences remain, especially beyond Monday night regarding just how quickly the upper trough and surface cold front exit the region. Kept PoPs in the forecast during the favorable afternoon and early evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday with the front nearby.

Finally some talk of severe starting this weekend into next week from both SPC and LWX

Guess I beat @snowman19 to this lol

Guess we shall see...

Don't forget that the KLWX radar will be out of service until the end of the month (it's already down to start maintenance)

Pretty good day for the region and into AKQ CWA for severe weather reports, SLGT definitely verified

Nickel sized hail reported in Clifton, VA

Numerous reports of funnel clouds in downtown Norfolk as well 000 NWUS51 KAKQ 162120 LSRAKQ Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wakefield VA 520 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0515 PM Funnel Cloud 1 S Downtown Norfolk 36.84N 76.29W 06/16/2023 City of Norfolk VA Public

Was rainwrapped as well 000 NWUS51 KAKQ 162056 LSRAKQ Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wakefield VA 456 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0455 PM Tornado 3 ENE Carrollton 36.97N 76.52W 06/16/2023 Isle of Wight VA Public Public reports rain wrapped tornado in Carrolton.

Warrenton cell should get a warning soon IMO

Centreville storm looks nice and STW

Confirmed TOR in SE VA right now BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 456 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Tornado Warning for... The western City of Norfolk in southeastern Virginia... The northern City of Portsmouth in southeastern Virginia... Northeastern Isle of Wight County in southeastern Virginia... The northeastern City of Suffolk in southeastern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 455 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Crittenden, or near Carrolton, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * The tornado will be near... Crittenden around 500 PM EDT. Churchland around 515 PM EDT. Portsmouth around 520 PM EDT. Old Dominion University and Norfolk NAS around 525 PM EDT. Norfolk and Ghent around 530 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Huntersville, Hobson and Carrollton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report severe weather by calling 757-899-2415, posting to the NWS Wakefield Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSWAKEFIELDVA. && LAT...LON 3683 7632 3685 7639 3687 7640 3687 7642 3686 7643 3690 7657 3699 7656 3698 7647 3695 7643 3697 7639 3696 7628 3688 7628 TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 285DEG 22KT 3694 7653 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

Ping pong ball sized hail in the new SWS

Is its just because close to radar or is the Loudoun cell hooking?

^ 2.50" hail tag on thar cell on Radarscope

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 432 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Stafford County in northern Virginia... Northeastern Orange County in central Virginia... South central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Culpeper County in northern Virginia... North central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 432 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles south of Bealeton, or 13 miles east of Culpeper, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Flat Run, Chancellorsville, Ramoth, Lignum, Storck, Holly Corner, Dunavant, Lake Of The Woods, Richardsville, Glendie, Hartwood, Goldvein, Sumerduck and Cookstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

New storms with lightning firing back in W MD

I don't think so